BITCOIN Monthly Candle color Closes patterns since 2011Bitcoin / U.S. dollarBITSTAMP:BTCUSDOrriginalQuote from Last Months post "The Odds of a Green July to come are high but previous August and September are mostly RED. August 5 Green 10 Red September 6 Green 9 Red" JULY CLOSED GREEN So now we look at the chart and see that on only 2 occasions have we seen this sequence of Green April, Red May and June and then a Green July. They are circled and are in 2013 and 2018 and they went in opposite directions afterwards. The nearest to current PA pattern is the 2018 and this green july was followed by a deep bear for the next 6 months. I feel this is HIGHLY unlikely now, the possibleity of continued Range is more likely. As mentioned earlier, previous August closes are 5 Green to 10 Red. Those 5 Green Augusts ALL came after a Green July. But this may be misleading as there have been 5 RED Augusts also after Green July! (Arrows) With traditional time cycles, we may not be finished in the Bear yet and so I have decided to talk about the RED candle closes for August The 2 arrows I am most interested in are the 2018 ( Arrow that points into a circle) and the Dashed arrow in 2022. The 2018 one follows on from the candle pattern similar to what we have just had. The 2022 Dash Arrow points to a PA that is in a VERY similar position on the 50 Month SMA (Red) that we currently have. Both had Red August and Septembers. We currently sit in a 58K - 82K Range zone since Febuary 2026 and we just re-emtered the lower half of that range, having spent most of the time in the upper half. This is very similar to what happened in 2024. So similar in fact, you can see that we entered the lower range in early July 2024 and on this occasion, ln 2026, it was near end of July. If ths plays out, this hints towards a Red August. From here, should PA drop back to the lower range price, 58K, that would give us that RED August Candle that is more likely on Averages. However, some Technicals do point to a price of 52K being a possible next level and if thathaooens, it will be a swift recovery I expect. Having said that, I have for the first time in the 3 years I been posting this chart, included the 50 Month SMA (RED). As you can see, on most cycles, this has held as the line of "It is not going Much lower" at the bottom of the bear and we are Very near right now. AS I keep saying, 2022 bear was exceptional.... Should August close Red it is likley a small red candle. as in 2024. CHART Should August close RED, we can expect a Red September and a traditinal Q4 push higher. Should August close Green, we could see a sustained push for the rest of the year, as in 2013 and maybe with a smell red month en-route. This would break the 4 year cycle patterns, as traditionaly, the 1st year after ATH continues to fall. CHART The possibility that the July push higher may give people false hopes exists and we need to remain Cautious But, at the same Time, I do feel things may change and we could see that push higher sustained in August, We just need to wait and see and react accordingly.