Yields move lower. Stock futures point to a higher open. The USD falls after jobs report

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The US economy added just 29,000 jobs in September, down from 133,000 in August (revised from 162K), as private-sector hiring was partially offset by another decline in government employment. The private sector added 46,000 jobs, while government payrolls fell 17,000.The headline shows a sharp slowdown from August. Looking underneath the number, however, the picture is mixed: construction, manufacturing and health care continued to add jobs, while information, financial activities and professional and business services lost ground.September: Where jobs were addedPrivate education and health services: +20,000, including 23,000 in health care and social assistance.Construction: +11,000Leisure and hospitality: +10,000Manufacturing: +9,000Transportation and warehousing: +7,600Other services: +6,000Retail trade: +5,800Wholesale trade: +5,000Utilities: +500September: Where jobs were lostGovernment: −17,000Information: −10,000Professional and business services: −9,000, including a 10,900-job decline in temporary help services.Financial activities: −7,000Mining and logging: −2,000The three-month trend: Modest growth, concentrated hiringOver July–September, nonfarm payrolls increased by 152,000, averaging approximately 51,000 jobs per month. That included July’s 10,000 decline, August’s 133,000 gain and September’s 29,000 increase.Private employers added 163,000 jobs, averaging approximately 54,000 per month. Government employment declined by 11,000, averaging a loss of approximately 3,700 per month.The sector breakdown shows where hiring has held up—and where weakness has persisted:Private education and health services:+72,000, averaging +24,000 per month. Health care and social assistance contributed 71,400, accounting for nearly all the sector’s net growth.Construction:+45,000, averaging +15,000 per month. Jobs were added in all three months, although September’s increase was the smallest.Manufacturing:+44,000, averaging approximately +14,700 per month. Hiring remained positive each month but slowed from 20,000 in July to 15,000 in August and 9,000 in September.Transportation and warehousing:+21,200, averaging approximately +7,100 per month. Employment increased throughout the period.Wholesale trade:+19,300, averaging approximately +6,400 per month, with gains in each month.Other services:+15,000, averaging +5,000 per month.Leisure and hospitality:+9,000, averaging +3,000 per month. August and September gains largely recovered July’s sharp decline.Retail trade:+6,300, averaging +2,100 per month. Hiring was uneven, with an August decline between two months of gains.Utilities:+3,700, averaging approximately +1,200 per month.Mining and logging:−2,000, averaging approximately −700 per month.Government:−11,000, averaging approximately −3,700 per month. August’s increase failed to offset losses in July and September.Professional and business services:−20,000, averaging approximately −6,700 per month, with declines in all three months. Temporary help services lost 20,700 jobs, averaging −6,900 per month.Information:−24,000, averaging −8,000 per month, as August and September losses outweighed July’s gain.Financial activities:−26,000, averaging approximately −8,700 per month, with employment falling each month.What does it mean for the market?The labor market is still adding jobs on balance, but the pace is modest. Education and health services, construction and manufacturing added a combined 161,000 jobs over the three months—more than the total nonfarm payroll gain. Losses elsewhere pulled the headline lower.There is also evidence of slowing momentum within the sectors still hiring. Construction and manufacturing added jobs each month, but their gains became progressively smaller. Meanwhile, financial activities and professional and business services continued to shed workers (AI related?).For traders, that gives the softer headline some support beneath the surface. The report shows concentrated hiring and persistent pockets of weakness, which could temper expectations for further Fed tightening. The wage and inflation picture still matters, however, in determining how much room the Fed has to respond.US Treasury yields are lowerThe modest declines ahead of the jobs report have become more pronounced, led by the shorter maturities:2-year: 4.7246% now, versus 4.7809% in the Kickstart post. Down an additional 5.63 basis points, and now down 6.24 basis points on the day.5-year: 4.9373% now, versus 4.9926%. Down an additional 5.53 basis points, and now down 6.77 basis points on the day.10-year: 5.1842% now , versus 5.2242%. Down an additional 4.00 basis points, and now down 4.98 basis points on the day.30-year: 5.5738% now, versus 5.5989%. Down an additional 2.51 basis points, and now down 2.92 basis points on the day.The larger decline at the front end is consistent with traders marking down expectations for further Fed tightening. The market is now pricing in 16% chance of a hike in October. US dollar is lowerThe USD was mixed ahead of the report. It is now lower against all the major currencies shown except the CAD, with its earlier gain against the Canadian dollar narrowing.EURUSD: Up to 1.1247 from 1.1241. The euro is now 0.05% higher on the day, turning the dollar modestly lower.USDJPY: Down to 157.26 from 157.77. Its daily decline has widened to 0.51%, versus 0.19% earlier.GBPUSD: Up to 1.3223 from 1.3209. Its daily gain has increased to 0.18%, versus 0.08%.USDCHF: Down to 0.8263 from 0.8282. Its daily decline has widened to 0.53%, versus 0.30%.USDCAD: Down to 1.4228 from 1.4240. The USD remains 0.06% higher on the day, but that is below the earlier 0.15% gain.AUDUSD: Up to 0.6960 from 0.6937. Its daily gain has widened to 0.45%, versus 0.12%.NZDUSD: Up to 0.5622 from 0.5609. Its daily gain has increased to 0.34%, versus 0.11%.US stock futures are higherDow: Now +425 points, versus +208 earlier. An additional 217 points higher.Nasdaq 100: Now +357 points, versus +170 earlier. An additional 187 points higher.S&P 500: Now +67 points, versus +36 earlier. An additional 31 points higher.The initial reaction has been lower yields, a broadly weaker dollar and stronger stock futures. That combination suggests traders are taking some comfort from reduced pressure for additional Fed tightening. The next question is whether those moves can hold as the North American session progresses.Some technicals in Forex:EURUSD: The EURUSD remains below the high for the day at 1.1269. The current price is trading at 1.1858. With a sharp declines yesterday, the price has moved away from its falling 100 hour moving average at 1.1319. The June 2026 low price was at 1.13245. All those levels would need to be broken - and stay broken -  to give the buyers more hope for more upside. USDJPY: The USDJPY fell below and away from its 200 hour moving average at 157.704, and its 100 hour moving average at 157.513. The broken 38.2% retracement 157.136 is also been broken. There are swing level is down 156.36 up to 156.655 as the next target on further selling. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.