H1 Major Demand Recovery Toward ReclaimGoldOANDA:XAUUSDMason_Drake XAUUSD is trading around 4,141 after a sharp rejection from the 4,215–4,225 upper supply area. Price has returned to the lower boundary of the current rising H1 structure, where the 4,118–4,128 Major Demand / Channel Support Zone becomes the key decision area. The latest U.S. labor data weakened significantly. September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, versus roughly 90,000 expected, while unemployment held at 4.2%. That reduced expectations for another Fed hike at the October meeting. Bureau of Labor Statistics However, gold still finished Friday under pressure. Spot gold fell about 0.9% to $4,140, while 10-year Treasury yields climbed back to roughly 5.28% despite the weak payroll report. Traders were pricing only about a 22% probability of an October Fed hike, but elevated long-term yields and a dollar headed for a weekly gain continued to weigh on bullion. Reuters Technical View The H1 chart still shows a developing ascending structure from the 4,110 structural low, but the recent rejection from upper resistance confirms that buyers have not regained full control. Price is now trading close to 4,140, directly above the rising trendline and the 4,118–4,128 Major Demand / Channel Support Zone. This is the cleaner area to evaluate whether buyers can form another higher low. A liquidity sweep into demand followed by bullish rejection, reclaim or MSS confirmation would support a recovery toward the 4,145–4,157 Immediate Recovery Target. Above that, the most important confirmation area is the 4,178–4,192 Key Resistance / Reclaim Zone. Acceptance above this zone would improve the H1 structure and expose the upper supply around 4,215–4,225. Key Zones Current Price: 4,140.520 Major Demand / Channel Support: 4,118–4,128 Structural Support: 4,110.419 Immediate Recovery Target: 4,145–4,157 Key Resistance / Reclaim: 4,178–4,192 Major Supply / Upper Resistance: 4,215–4,225 Trading Plan Buy Priority: 4,118–4,128 Condition: wait for a liquidity sweep followed by bullish rejection, higher-low formation, reclaim or bullish MSS/CHoCH confirmation. TP1: 4,145–4,157 TP2: 4,178–4,192 TP3: 4,215–4,225 Invalidation: sustained H1 acceptance below 4,110. Buy/Sell View The cleaner approach is not to chase longs around current price. The preferred setup is a controlled pullback into 4,118–4,128, where the rising trendline and Major Demand converge. If buyers defend this area, the first recovery should target 4,145–4,157. A stronger reclaim above 4,178–4,192 would provide better evidence that the short-term structure is shifting back toward buyers. Important Note Weak payroll growth supports expectations for a Fed pause, but gold’s failure to hold its initial post-jobs rebound shows that Treasury yields remain the dominant short-term headwind. Reuters reported the 10-year yield near 5.28% and gold down roughly 3.4% for the week, so any bullish H1 recovery still requires confirmation rather than anticipation. Reuters Final View Gold is sitting close to an important H1 support confluence after the latest bearish impulse. The main scenario is a liquidity sweep into 4,118–4,128 followed by confirmed bullish recovery, targeting 4,145–4,157 first, then the 4,178–4,192 Reclaim Zone. A successful H1 reclaim above that structure could reopen the path toward 4,215–4,225 Major Supply. Can buyers defend Major Demand and rebuild the H1 recovery structure?