XAUUSD Weekly Map: Is 4,100 the Bottom Before 4,495?GoldOANDA:XAUUSDAndrew_InsightTradeGold is entering the new week at a very interesting point. The H4 chart is still technically bearish. Price has been moving inside a descending range for weeks, producing lower highs and repeated bearish BOS signals. So calling a complete bullish reversal here would be premature. But something has changed near 4,100. After reaching the lower boundary of the bearish range, XAUUSD strongly defended the 4,100–4,120 support zone. More importantly, the latest price action has produced a CHOCH, suggesting that short-term selling momentum is beginning to weaken. This creates a setup where I am not interested in blindly selling the bottom. Instead, I am watching for a recovery first. THE LEVEL THAT CHANGES THE NEXT WEEK My first major upside level is 4,281. Why? Because 4,281 sits close to the upper boundary of the current descending structure. It is the first area where the market can show us whether this recovery is real or simply another lower high before sellers return. That makes the plan relatively simple: 4,100–4,120 = major support 4,281 = first decision point 4,392 = second resistance 4,495 = major upside target The reaction around these levels will determine my next trade. BULLISH PLAN — I WANT CONFIRMATION, NOT HOPE My preferred scenario is a bullish recovery from the current support area. I want to see XAUUSD continue holding above 4,100–4,120 and then build bullish structure above 4,180–4,200. BUY SETUP: Entry: 4,150–4,180 SL: 4,095 TP1: 4,281 TP2: 4,340–4,350 TP3: 4,392 I would not chase price if Gold immediately spikes higher. A pullback that forms a higher low would provide a much cleaner entry. The real game changer comes if price breaks 4,281 and successfully retests it as support. If that happens, the H4 bearish channel is effectively being challenged, and I would look for another BUY: Entry: 4,275–4,290 after bullish retest SL: 4,245 TP1: 4,340 TP2: 4,392 TP3: 4,495 A sustained break above 4,392 would make 4,495 my main upside objective. THE SELL I ACTUALLY WANT Here is where things get more interesting. Even though I expect a recovery, I am not ignoring the larger bearish structure. If Gold rallies into 4,330–4,350 but fails to maintain momentum, I will watch for bearish confirmation back toward 4,281. SELL SETUP: Entry: 4,325–4,350 after bearish rejection SL: 4,375 TP1: 4,281 TP2: 4,220 TP3: 4,180 There is also a much stronger sell zone higher up. If Gold reaches 4,392 and shows a clear H4 rejection without closing above it, that would put price back into an attractive premium area inside the broader bearish structure. Alternative SELL: Entry: 4,385–4,400 SL: 4,425 TP1: 4,340 TP2: 4,281 TP3: 4,200 WHAT IF 4,100 BREAKS? This is the invalidation point for my recovery idea. If XAUUSD produces an H4 close below 4,100 and then fails to reclaim the level, I will stop looking for longs. In that case: SELL below: 4,100 after retest SL: 4,135 TP1: 4,075 TP2: 4,030 TP3: 4,000 That would tell me the CHOCH was only temporary and that the dominant bearish trend has resumed. THE WEEKLY ROADMAP The easiest way to understand my idea is this: 4,100 support → recovery → 4,281 test → possible pullback → breakout → 4,392 → 4,495. But this is a roadmap, not a prediction that must happen exactly as drawn. The market has already given us the first clue: buyers defended the lower boundary and created a CHOCH. Now they need to prove they can turn that reaction into a real structural reversal. For me, 4,281 is the first test. 4,392 is the confirmation. And 4,495 is where this recovery could become much bigger than most traders currently expect. Until then, I remain bullish on the recovery, but bearish structure still deserves respect.