AUDNZD | September High – Bearish Retracement OutlookAUD/NZDOANDA:AUDNZDJCW-Fx21AUDNZD experienced a substantial bullish expansion throughout August and September, with price advancing from approximately 1.1920 into the September high around 1.2490. Following such an extended move, I am now watching for a broader retracement of this expansion. In the short term, however, I expect AUDNZD to continue higher into the 1.2400–1.2440 region before considering short exposure, with entries potentially distributed throughout this area subject to bearish price-action confirmation. Sustained four-hour acceptance above the September high would invalidate the bearish thesis. Should rejection develop, the October low around 1.2320 represents the first downside objective, followed by the 61.8% retracement around 1.2270 and the 50% retracement around 1.2200. The 33% region around 1.2100 remains an extended objective rather than an immediate expectation. Fundamentally, the Australian dollar retains strong near-term monetary-policy support following the Reserve Bank of Australia's September rate increase to 4.60%. Australian inflation remains elevated, with annual CPI reaching 4.0% in August, while the RBA has maintained that further tightening remains possible if inflationary pressures persist. This provides a reasonable fundamental backdrop for an initial AUDNZD move higher during the coming week. However, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is also moving towards tighter monetary policy, having increased the OCR to 2.75% in September while indicating that further increases may be required. New Zealand's economic recovery is also expected to strengthen, supported in part by resilient export demand and elevated commodity prices. Consequently, I am looking for the present Australian monetary-policy advantage to support an initial move higher before assessing whether improving New Zealand fundamentals and subsequent bearish technical confirmation can support a broader correction of the August–September AUDNZD expansion.