Man City given survival hope as financial expert predicts number of points to be deducted

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Manchester City are not guaranteed to go down even if they are hit with a mammoth points deduction this season, financial expert Kieran Maguire believes.The Premier League giants were recently dealt a seismic guilty verdict by an independent commission over 115 charges of financial wrongdoing.City are fighting for their Premier League existence with any number of sanctions possibleGettyCity, who have appealed against the decision and maintain their innocence, are adjudged to have inflated their revenue by more than £900million by disguising owner funding as sponsorship.In what is now undoubtedly the biggest scandal in Premier League history, the breaches occurred over a nine-year period between 2009 and 2018. City won eight trophies during this period, including three top-flight titles.talkSPORT understands the club intend to argue that sponsorship deals were propped up by the Abu Dhabi government, not Abu Dhabi United Group and consequently owner Sheikh Mansour. However, this evidence was dismissed during the independent commission’s investigation, while Etihad Airways have already denied receiving government funding in relation to their deal with City. All this leaves City facing unprecedented sanctions unless the verdict can be overturned.What could City’s punishment be? New Premier League regulations state that the appeal hearing must take place within 12 weeks.With the hearing lasting a maximum of five days, a decision will then be given within 30 days.If the verdict is upheld, the case will then move to a hearing over possible sanctions, with pressure from other clubs in the Premier League for punishment to be delivered this season. Football finance expert Maguire outlined the precedents already in place for monetary and sporting punishments in the Premier League.Chelsea were recently handed the biggest financial penalty in Premier League history but, unlike City, were credited for self-reporting and co-operating in fullGettyHowever, he stressed City’s case far outweighs anything that has come before, including the scandals surrounding Chelsea, Everton, Leicester and Nottingham Forest. Nevertheless, Maguire believes there is still a realistic scenario whereby City are punished this season and still manage to stay up. “As far as the outcome is concerned, I think we’ve got to look at precedent,” Maguire told talkSPORT.“Chelsea were given significant fines from both the Football Association (and remember, the Football Association might take this up later) and from the Premier League for around £20m over their financial misdemeanours, not registering payments to unauthorised agents and so on. “So you would expect that to be quite significant. Also, it was noticeable in the Chelsea claim that the club agreed to pay the Premier League legal costs, which were quite substantial. These are going to be far bigger.“So we’re probably talking about £50m-£60m in all probability, plus a substantial fine. Everton and Forest have been handed significant points deductions over PSR breaches in recent yearsGetty“Then, of course, we’ve got the precedent of Nottingham Forest, Everton, and Leicester City, all of whom breached the PSR limits and were given points deductions. “Now, the logic behind that is that if you spend more money on players, it gives you an advantage on the pitch, and that advantage on the pitch should be punished with a punishment on the pitch in the form of a points deduction. “Given that the Man City offences took place over a longer period of time, therefore it’s multiple offences over multiple years, you would expect a multiple of the points deductions that we’ve seen.“We don’t know by how much Man City exceeded the PSR limits, and we’re now working on the basis of reading some of the former reports that it works out as a three-point deduction to kick off with, plus one extra point per extra £6.5m over the limit. So that will form a rough basis. “And then there’s a further issue, have you assisted with the investigation? We’ll suggest they probably haven’t.So that’s called an aggregating factor, and the panel could subsequently give an additional points deduction on top of that. “If all of those are proven post-appeal, my gut reaction is we would be looking for somewhere in the region of perhaps 50 to 60 points. “If it’s more than 70 points, they’re effectively relegated. “From a drama point of view, and I appreciate the commission’s not interested in the drama, you give Man City a 50-point deduction, they go to minus 35, there’s 33 matches left to play for, you’ve actually got a fantastic story.“Because they could try and stay up. They could just about stay up. And I think the attitude of the players and everything would be fascinating. “But that’s a Hollywood story, rather than, is that appropriate?”