USD/CAD: Major Resistance Meets U.S. NFPUSD/CADOANDA:USDCADKingCephas2026USD/CAD is trading around 1.4219, pressing into a major technical decision zone after an extended bullish move from the 1.3750 area. The key level now is 1.4250 — the 0% Fibonacci level and the current major resistance. 📊 Technical Structure The daily structure remains bullish, with price continuing to print higher highs and higher lows. Resistance 1.4250 — major resistance / Fib 0% 1.4300 — upside breakout target 1.4350 — next expansion target Support 1.4140–1.4120 — first major support 1.4050 — 38.2% Fib area 1.4000 — 50% Fib 1.3940–1.3950 — 61.8% Fib / structural support The important point: USD/CAD is extended. I would not chase price directly underneath 1.4250. 🇺🇸 U.S. NFP Is the Catalyst September U.S. payrolls are expected to show approximately 90K jobs added, with unemployment expected to remain at 4.1% and wage growth around 3.2% YoY. The report is due at 1:30 PM WAT. Markets have recently reduced expectations for an October Fed hike, with pricing around only a one-in-four chance. That means today's employment data could materially change rate expectations. 🔵 Bullish Scenario If NFP beats expectations and wages remain firm: 1.4250 breakout → retest → continuation Potential targets: 1.4300 → 1.4350 I want to see a clean break and successful retest, not simply a spike through resistance. 🔴 Bearish Scenario If NFP disappoints and the market reduces Fed tightening expectations: 1.4250 rejection → 1.4140/1.4120 break Potential downside: 1.4050 → 1.4000 → 1.3940 A move back below 1.4120 would be the first meaningful warning that the current bullish structure is losing momentum. 🎯 Trading Plan Do not predict the NFP candle. Trade the structure created after the release. DATA → REACTION → STRUCTURE → RETEST → TRADE USD/CAD is sitting at a major resistance zone, so today's NFP can determine whether 1.4250 becomes a breakout platform or a major rejection point. The Trading Advantage™ #USD CAD #USDCAD #Forex #NFP #NonFarmPayrolls #FederalReserve #CanadianDollar #ForexTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #TheTradingAdvantage