Gold finds support as dovish Fed comments signal low appetite for tightening

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FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold started to consolidate above the 4,140 level after Fed’s Williams and Fed’s Jefferson delivered dovish comments suggesting no urgency in raising interest rates again in October. This shows once again that the Fed has low appetite for tightening, which is what transpired from the September’s dot plot. This could also support gold if the Fed keeps being more dovish than market’s expectations as real yields would fall on inflation expectations rising faster than nominal yields. Today, we have the US NFP report on the agenda. Given Fed’s Williams and Fed’s Jefferson comments, we will likely need a blockbuster report, with data beating expectations across the board, to raise the probabilities for an October hike again. Such an outcome could weigh on gold in the short-term on another hawkish repricing.In-line or weaker than expected data, on the other hand, will likely provide support to extend the recent pullback.  GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see gold(CFD contract) is slowly approaching the downward trendline. We can expect the sellers to lean on the trendline, with a defined risk above it, to position for a drop into the 3,885 level. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to pile in for a rally into the 4,700 level next.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, there’s not much we can glean from this timeframe as the sellers will have a better risk to reward setup around the trendline and the 4,240 resistance, while the buyers will need a break higher to open the door for new highs, with the 4,400 level as the first target.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we have a minor support around the 4,140 level where the price got rejected from several times in the past few days. If we get another pullback, we can expect the buyers to step in around the support, with a defined risk below it, to keep targeting the downward trendline. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break to increase the bearish bets into the 3,885 level next. The red lines define the average daily range for today.UPCOMING CATALYSTSTodaywe conclude the week with the US NFP report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.