BTCUSD — Ascending Channel Continuation: 84,449 Is the KeyBitcoinCRYPTO:BTCUSDRendra_AzrulsyahThis analysis is a continuation of my previous outlook on the bullish flag retest and pennant confirmation. Previous Analysis: BTCUSD 4H — Bullish Flag Retest and Pennant Confirmation Following the breakout above the pennant, BTCUSD has developed an ascending channel. The focus now shifts from breakout confirmation to monitoring a potential bullish continuation through a successful retest of channel support. Higher-Timeframe Context — 4H The earlier bullish flag provides the broader context for this continuation scenario. However, the immediate bullish setup depends on buyers defending 84,449. On the chart used for this analysis, this level represents the confluence between key horizontal support and the lower boundary of the ascending channel. As long as this area holds, the bullish continuation scenario remains valid. Bullish Scenario — Support Retest and Confirmation The preferred setup is a pullback toward channel support, followed by evidence that buyers are defending the area. A touch of support alone is not an entry confirmation. For confirmation, I would use the 1H timeframe: look for a bullish rejection, a candle close above 84,449 and back inside the channel, followed by a retest that holds. If this sequence develops, the upside objectives are: 85,941 — First Resistance The previous lower-high resistance, aligned with the Fibonacci 0.618 level. This is the first important checkpoint, where the strength of the recovery will be tested. 87,196.42 — Previous Swing High A sustained break above 85,941, supported by a 1H candle close and a successful retest, would bring the previous swing high into focus. Around 88,190 — Upper Channel Resistance If price clears 87,196.42 and bullish momentum remains intact, the next objective is the upper channel resistance area around 88,190. This is an approximate channel projection rather than a guaranteed or permanently fixed target. Bearish Scenario — Failure of 84,449 Support A 1H candle close below 84,449 and outside the ascending channel would be an initial warning that the bullish setup is weakening. If price subsequently retests this area from below and fails to reclaim it, I would consider the near-term bullish continuation setup invalidated and shift attention toward potential bearish development. A support failure would require reassessment—not an assumption that the bullish targets remain active. No additional downside target is assigned in this update. Risk Management and No-Trade Zone I would avoid entries in the middle of the channel without either a confirmed support retest or a validated resistance breakout. The distance to the first target at 85,941 should justify the risk to the planned stop. Since an exact entry and stop-loss price have not been defined, a fixed risk-to-reward ratio cannot yet be assigned. The structural invalidation rule is not a substitute for a predefined protective stop. Scheduled macro announcements should also be checked before acting on any technical trigger. Technical Outlook The immediate bias remains conditionally bullish above 84,449, with a confirmed support retest as the preferred setup. The upside sequence is 85,941 → 87,196.42 → approximately 88,190, with each successive target dependent on the preceding resistance being cleared. The key question is whether buyers can defend channel support—not simply whether price has already broken out of the pennant. Disclaimer This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. These are conditional scenarios, not guaranteed outcomes. Use appropriate position sizing and risk management, conduct your own research, and trade at your own risk.