FUNDAMENTALOVERVIEWGold sold off on Friday as the very hot NFP gain with higher revisions for the prior months served as a wake-upcall that the Fed could be forced to tighten monetary policy. The job gainshave been much higher than the estimated breakeven rate lately. Theunemployment rate fell to an unrounded 4.29% vs 4.33% in the prior month. Following the NFP report, the market fully priced in a rate hike byyear-end with the total tightening standing at 30 bps right now. We can nowexpect the Fed to drop the easing bias at the upcoming meeting, but the focuswill be mostly on the dot plot and forward guidance. Even though a rate hike isnow fully priced in, if the Fed endorses the market pricing, it willeffectively confirm that the bias has now shifted to tightening and might triggeranother selloff in gold.This week, the most important event will be the US CPI report release on Wednesday(barring a surprising breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations). The question formarkets is now when and how many rate hikes the Fed might deliver by year-end. Upsidesurprises would be seen as more hawkish and will likely weigh further on goldprices. Conversely, lower than expected figures should alleviate some of the mosthawkish fears and might trigger a relief rally in the short-term. GOLD TECHNICALANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we cansee that gold is approaching the major upward trendline. If the price getsthere, we can expect the buyers to lean on the trendline with a defined riskbelow it to position for a rally into the major downward trendline. Thesellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower toincrease the bearish bets into the 3,885 level next.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we cansee the price broke below the key 4,350 level following the hot NFP number and extendedthe drop into new lows. From a risk management perspective, the sellers willhave a better risk to reward setup on a retest of the support now turnedresistance around the 4,350 level. The buyers, on the other hand, will want tosee the price rising back above the resistance to extend the pullback into theminor downward trendline next.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we cansee the NFP triggered a break below the 4,425 support with more sellers pilingin to extend the drop into new lows. There’s not much else we can add here asthe resistance around the 4,350 level and the major upward trendline remain thekey short-term levels. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday, we have the NYFed consumer inflation expectations survey. On Wednesday, we have the US CPIreport. On Thursday, we get the latestUS Jobless Claims figures and the US PPI report. On Friday, we conclude theweek with the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.