Black-Type Analysis: Will The Ground Scupper Benvenuto Cellini’s Chances?

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Saturday, Epsom Downs, post time: 16:00, THE BETFRED DERBY-G1, £2,000,000, 3yo, c/f, 12f 6yTField: Action (Ire) (Frankel {GB}), Alderman (GB) (Study Of Man {GB}), Ancient Egypt (Ire) (Frankel {GB}), A Taste Of Glory (Ger) (Soldier Hollow {GB}), Balzac (Ger) (Japan {GB}), Bay Of Brilliance (GB) (New Bay {GB}), Benvenuto Cellini (Ire) (Frankel {GB}), Christmas Day (Ire) (Camelot {GB}), Item (GB) (Frankel {GB}), James J Braddock (GB) (Zarak {Fr}), Maltese Cross (Fr) (Sea The Stars {Ire}), Pierre Bonnard (Ire) (Camelot {GB}), Poker (Ire) (Wootton Bassett {GB}), Rebel Rocker (GB) (Cityscape {GB}).TDN Analysis: A renewal that has a picture that could shift considerably between declaration time and the race itself, with a mixed weather forecast suggesting it could be run on anything from good-to-soft to very soft. The clear favourite for some time, Benvenuto Cellini, will want it as lively as it can get based on how he operates but there is form on a yielding surface and his accomplished dam Newspaperofrecord had it on the soft side when recording her career-best in the Breeders' Cup. Pierre Bonnard won the Criterium de Saint-Cloud on testing ground and may benefit more than the favourite if more rain comes, while the yard's other big chance who will stay is Christmas Day and he is far from out of this. Like Benvenuto Cellini, Item is out of a Lope De Vega mare and it is worth noting that Capla Temptress was second in a soft-ground Lake Placid. Strangely for a Derby, he is the only unbeaten runner in the line-up and may have more class than the likes of James J Braddock, Maltese Cross and Bay Of Brilliance whose trial performances don't look particularly strong on the clock or the formbook. [Tom Frary].Saturday, Epsom Downs, post time: 14:40, THE COOLMORE CORONATION CUP-G1, £1,000,000, 4yo/up, 12f 6yTField: Bay City Roller (Ire) (New Bay {GB}), Calandagan (Ire) (Gleneagles {Ire}), Convergent (Ire) (Fascinating Rock {Ire}), Illinois (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}), Jan Brueghel (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}), Lambourn (Ire) (Australia {GB}).TDN Analysis: A fascinating rematch between last year's first and second Jan Brueghel and Calandagan on very similar ground, which if deteriorating further could lead to the French colossus missing out altogether. While nobody is disputing that the Graffard runner is the better performer overall, this set-up does favour Jan Brueghel and the emphasis will be on making it a true stamina test once again with Illinois and Lambourn potentially acting as tag-team pacemakers. Outlier Convergent has a bit to find with the top two, but is a hard horse to pin down and could surprise a few. [Tom Frary].Saturday, Epsom Downs, post time: 13:30, THE BETFRED TATTENHAM CORNER STAKES (FORMERLY THE JOHN OF GAUNT STAKES)-G3, £125,000, 4yo/up, 7f 3yTField: Alcantor (Fr) (New Bay {GB}), Balmacara (GB) (New Bay {GB}), Chicago Critic (GB) (Night Of Thunder {Ire}), Golden Mind (Ire) (Galileo Gold {GB}), Never So Brave (Ire) (No Nay Never), Poet Master (Ire) (Lope De Vega {Ire}), Ten Bob Tony (Ire) (Night Of Thunder {Ire}), Witness Stand (GB) (Expert Eye {GB}).TDN Analysis: Highly progressive last summer, the City of York and Summer Mile winner Never So Brave drops in class and trip after a disappointing effort on his seasonal bow in the Sandown Mile. Ten Bob Tony won this 12 months ago when it was staged at Haydock and rates as the biggest threat, while Alcantor shortens from a mile for the first time since his two-year-old days and is sure to try and make a bold bid from the front. [Tom Frary].Saturday, Epsom Downs, post time: 14:05, THE PRINCESS ELIZABETH STAKES-G3, £125,000, 3yo/up, f/m, 8f 113yTField: Sparks Fly (GB) (Muhaarar {GB}), Arisaig (GB) (Harry Angel {Ire}), Betty Clover (GB) (Time Test {GB}), Breckenbrough (GB) (Kingman {GB}), Love Dynasty (Fr) (Dubawi {Ire}), Pina Sonata (GB) (Pinatubo {Ire}), Princess Child (Fr) (Dariyan {Fr}), Shes Perfect (Ire) (Sioux Nation), Pacific Mission (GB) (Lope De Vega {Ire}).TDN Analysis: Shes Perfect put up an encouraging effort on her first start since the Prix de Diane when third in the Conqueror last month and is poised to provide that first Stakes win having had it taken away from her in last year's Poule d'Essai des Pouliches. Third in this last year, Sparks Fly showed she retains all her ability with a fine fourth in the Huxley last month while last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf and May Hill runner-up Pacific Mission is a key player as the sole representative of the three-year-old crop. [Tom Frary].Saturday, Baden-Baden, Germany, post time: 15:50, JAPAN RACING ASSOCIATION DERBY-TRIAL-G3, €55,000, 3yo, 10fTField: All Square (Ger) (Gleneagles {Ire}), Lommi (Ire) (Churchill {Ire}), Seguro (Ger) (Romanised {Ire}), Waladares (Ger) (Gleneagles {Ire}), Yacomo (Fr) (Yafta {GB}), Akira Yasha (Ire) (Saxon Warrior {Jpn}).TDN Analysis: Eckhard Sauren's G3 Herzog von Ratibor-Rennen victor Lommi finished several lengths in front of Waladares when a neck second to Gostam in last month's G2 Bavarian Classic and sets the benchmark here. His threats include Stall Simply Red's G3 Dr Busch Memorial fourth Seguro and Wiaczeslaw Szymczuk's Polish 2000 Guineas heroine Akira Yasha, while impressive Cologne maiden scorer All Square is an intriguing contender coming back off a handicap second at Krefeld. Lyon-Parilly handicap victor Yacomo makes his first start of the year and completes the line-up. [Sean Cronin].Sunday, Tokyo, Japan, post time: 15:40, YASUDA KINEN-G1, ¥347,280,0000, 3yo/up, 1600mTField: Lebensstil (Jpn) (Real Steel {Jpn}), Long Run (Jpn) (Victoire Pisa {Jpn}), Off Trail (GB) (Farhh {GB}), Sixpence (Jpn) (Kizuna {Jpn}), Sakura Toujours (Jpn) (Neo Universe {Jpn}), Stellenbosch (Jpn) (Epiphaniea {Jpn}), Suzu Khalom (Jpn) (Satono Diamond {Jpn}), Champagne Color (Jpn) (Duramente {Jpn}), Water Licht (Jpn) (Drefong), Luxor Cafe (American Pharoah), World's End (Jpn) (Lord Kanaloa {Jpn}), Sirius Colt (Jpn) (Makfi {GB}), Seiun Hades (Jpn) (Silver State {Jpn}), Gaia Force (Jpn) (Kitasan Black {Jpn}), Dragon Boost (Jpn) (Screen Hero {Jpn}), Panja Tower (Jpn) (Tower Of London {Jpn}), Trovatore (Jpn) (Rey De Oro {Jpn}).TDN Analysis: Leading the ante-post market is multiple group winner Gaia Force who will be racing in his fourth consecutive Yasuda Kinen. The seven-year-old entire has placed three times at Group 1 level, and could finally claim that elusive accolade on Sunday from stall 14. Entering this contest with back-to-back Group 3 victories, Trovatore is based in the car park in stall 17. Sunday's task could prove too much, as he was 17th in the 2025 Yasuda Kinen. Only fifth in April's G1 Osaka Hai one better than the re-opposing Lebensstil, Seiun Hades cuts back to 1600 metres here. 2025 G1 NHK Mile Cup hero Panja Tower adds intrigue.Sunday, Baden-Baden, Germany, post time: 14:55, GROSSER PREIS VON TATTERSALLS-G2, €70,000, 4yo/up, 11fTField: Hochkonig (Ger) (Polish Vulcano {Ger}), Alleno (Ire) (Nathaniel {Ire}), Ami De Vega (Ire) (Lope De Vega {Ire}), Atoso (Ger) (Guiliani {Ire}), Delgardo (Ger) (Best Solution {Ire}), Lifetimes (Ire) (Gleneagles {Ire}), Wilko (Ire) (Mastercraftsman {Ire}), Wintertraum (Ger) (Lord Of England {Ger}).TDN Analysis: Last year's hero and recent G2 Oleander-Rennen victor Lordano was scratched after declarations were confirmed, but is backed up by his able Gestut Ittlingen deputy and dual G2 Gerling-Preis winner Alleno. Deutsches Derby hero Hochkonig looked in need of the competition when fourth behind Alleno and Wintertraum in last month's Gerling-Preis and is expected to offer more with Jack Mitchell replacing the injured Nina Baltromei in the saddle. Last year's Deutsches Derby 11th Delgardo and the previous year's G3 Preis des Winterfavoriten victor Lifetimes both remain on the redemption trail, while Ami De Vega offers hope of a Scandinavian success. Journeymen Atoso and Wilko complete the line-up. [Sean Cronin].Sunday, ParisLongchamp, France, post time: 15:50, PRIX PAUL DE MOUSSAC-G2, €119,000, 3yo, 7fTField: Synaran (Ire) (Mehmas {Ire}), Afandy {Fr}) (Mehmas {Ire}), Go Man (Fr) (Goken {Fr}), Cielo Di Roma (Fr) (Romanised {Ire}), Pitch Perfect (Fr) (Romanised {Ire}), Imperior (Fr) (Siyouni {Fr}), Canalejas (Fr) (Armor {GB}), Good Bye Manu (Ire) (Almanzor {Fr}), Nighttime (Fr) (Wootton Bassett {GB}).TDN Analysis: Alain and Gerard Wertheimer's TDN Rising Star Nighttime was under three lengths adrift of Rayif (Sea The Moon) when sixth in last month's G1 Poule d'Essai des Poulains and gets an opportunity of making amends here. Rayif's Francis Graffard stablemate Synaran made a black-type breakthrough in April's Listed Prix du Pont Neuf when last seen and poses a threat, as does G3 Prix Djebel winner Afandy and third Cielo Di Roma. Of the remainder, old foes and stakes-winning duo Go Man and Canalejas make most appeal. [Sean Cronin].Sunday, ParisLongchamp, France, post time: 16:25, KRA LA COUPE-G3, €73,200, 4yo/up, 10fTField: Snow Player (Fr) (Dariyan {Fr}), Casapueblo (Ire) (Le Havre {Ire}), Trust On (Fr) (Intello {Ger}), Nitoi (Siyouni {Fr}), Sinileo (Ire) (Siyouni {Fr}), Familly (Fr) (Goken {Fr}), Tajlina (GB) (Kingman {GB}).TDN Analysis: Andre Fabre has assembled a powerful squad and is represented by last term's G2 Prix Eugene Adam third Sinileo, the multiple Group-placed Listed Prix Jacques Laffitte victor Casapueblo and dual Listed winner Nitoi. Opposition includes wide-margin Listed Prix Urban Sea winner Familly, last term's G3 Prix Penelope victrix and last month's G3 Prix Allez France second Tajlina and stakes-winning G2 Prix du Muguet fifth Trust On. Snow Player is the only entry not to have achieved black type. [Sean Cronin].Sunday, ParisLongchamp, France, post time: 13:58, PRIX RIDGWAY-Listed, €50,300, 3yo, c/g, 10fTField: The Odyssey (Fr) (Frankel {GB}), Tonnant (Fr) (Romanised {Ire}), Nicomede (Fr) (Ectot {GB}), Focus (Ire) (Siyouni {Fr}), Overnight (Fr) (Night Of Thunder {Ire}).TDN Analysis: Andre Fabre is represented by two and holds the key to this card's opening heat. The dual Listed-placed Focus ran third to subsequent G2 Prix de Sandringham victrix Naomis (City Light) in April's Listed Prix Aymeri de Mauleon in his only start this term, while stablemate Overnight shed maiden status in style at Saint-Cloud last month. Al Asayl France's The Odyssey also graduated in his second start, doing so this over course and distance just over five weeks ago. Chantilly handicap winner Tonnant and the once-raced maiden Nicomede complete the line-up. [Sean Cronin].Sunday, ParisLongchamp, France, post time: 14:33, PRIX MELISANDE-Listed, €50,000, 3yo, f, 10fTField: Azamita (Ire) (New Bay {GB}), Ecija (GB) (Night Of Thunder {Ire}), Almaris (Fr) (Almanzor {Fr}), Chill Y Flama (GB) (Lope Y Fernandez {Ire}), Dispatches (GB) (Frankel {GB}), Maintain (GB) (Kingman {GB}), Mapaquita (Fr) (Battle Of Marengo {Ire}), Proxima Du Centaur (GB) (Sea The Stars {Ire}).TDN Analysis: Juddmonte's Maintain was not disgraced when running 10th in last month's G1 Poule d'Essai des Pouliches and has another chance to build upon a third in April's G3 Prix Vanteaux over nine furlongs at this venue. Juddmonte's silks will also be carried by the dual winner Dispatches, who is accompanied by Listed Prix de la Seine fourth Proxima Du Centaur from the Andre Fabre yard. The Francis Graffard-trained Angers maiden scorer Azamita merits respect, as does Listed Prix des Lilas runner-up Ecija. [Sean Cronin].Sunday, ParisLongchamp, France, post time: 17:00, PRIX VOLTERRA-Listed, €50,300, 3yo, f, 8fTField: Houville (Fr) (Zelzal {Fr}), Alma Mater (Fr) (Zelzal {Fr}), La Carriere (Ire) (No Nay Never), Moonlabel (Fr) (Zelzal {Fr}), Hello Avenue (Fr) (Hello Youmzain {Fr}), Fortuna Diamond (GB) (Night Of Thunder {Ire}), Radiant (Fr) (City Light {Fr}), Alarming (GB) (A'Ali {Ire}), Cap Santa Lucia (Fr) (City Light {Fr}), Coco Soleil (Fr) (Flintshire {GB}), Land Of Liberty (Fr) (Starspangledbanner {Aus}).TDN Analysis: Godolphin's Fortuna Diamond is two-for-two after clear-cut victories at Senonnes-Pouance and Dieppe and makes her black-type debut in an open renewal. The performance of Ecija in the previous race will provide clues as to the chances of Houville, who was one spot behind when third in Chantilly's Listed Prix des Lilas last month, while Ralph Beckett entry Alarming holds claims having hit the board in both Listed Prix Herod and Listed Prix La Camargo. Land Of Liberty and Moonlabel have also placed in stakes company and the Brian Meehan-conditioned Windsor maiden winner Cap Santa Lucia is an intriguing contender. [Sean Cronin].Sunday, Goodwood, post time: 15:35, THE WEATHERBYS/BRITISH EBF AGNES KEYSER FILLIES' STAKES-Listed, £70,000, 3yo, f, 9f 197yTField: Botagoz (Ire) (Mehmas {Ire}), Capichera (Ire) (Australia {GB}), Della Pace (GB) (Camelot {GB}), Lady Dora Mae (Ire) (Space Blues {Ire}), Light Of Paris (Ger) (Sea The Stars {Ire}), Ourbren (Ire) (Starman {GB}), Plaid (GB) (Ghaiyyath {Ire}), Rose Ghaiyyath (Ire) (Ghaiyyath {Ire}), Sacred Ground (GB) (Kingman {GB}), Venetia (GB) (Lope De Vega {Ire}).TDN Analysis: Botagoz was third behind Lilt and So Regal in a strong renewal of York's Michael Seely Memorial last month and may be the most progressive in this line-up. Sacred Ground has been second in three races in this grade and needs a bit more, while Plaid was very impressive in a minor contest at Hamilton last time and could be a fast improver. [Tom Frary].Click here for the complete fields.The post Black-Type Analysis: Will The Ground Scupper Benvenuto Cellini’s Chances? appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.