Another Weekend of Uncertainty AheadIt was another case of mixed messaging between the US and Iran yesterday. On one side of this diplomatic theatre, the US insists that negotiations are in their final stages, while Iran’s foreign minister notes that there has been no meaningful headway. The disconnect was thrown into further doubt following Hezbollah’s outright rejection of the ceasefire framework that US officials had announced with some fanfare for Lebanon. Once again, we are headed into a weekend clouded in uncertainty. I am sure I am speaking for pretty much every market participant at this point; the hope-breakdown cycle has become incredibly tiring and has made trading the markets even more challenging. Oil benchmarks wrapped up Thursday on the back foot on recent developments – with Brent and WTI falling 2.1% and 3.4%, respectively – snapping a three-day winning streak. Meanwhile, gold ended the day nearly 1% higher, with the yellow metal continuing to trade amid dual currents of uncertainty in the Middle East, firmer real US yields, and a stronger US dollar.Equities: Chips Fall While the Dow ShinesIn the equities space, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index took a hit yesterday, down 2%. This was clearly felt in Asia-Pacific markets, particularly South Korea’s KOSPI, which shed a whopping 5.3% overnight. This is a stark reminder of how dependent Seoul remains on companies like Samsung and SK Hynix, which together account for roughly 50% of the index. US equity benchmarks told an interesting rotation story, with the price-weighted Dow index jumping nearly 2% and setting a new all-time high of 51,663. The Nasdaq Composite, however, slipped by 0.1%.Macro: US Jobs Data Front and Centre TodayOn the macro front, US jobs data is key today. Heading into the data, the May US Challenger layoffs report has shown AI increasingly cited as the rationale for downsizings, a trend that sits awkwardly alongside the AI capital expenditure boom, which is currently absorbing an extraordinary share of corporate and financial resources. Weekly US Initial jobless claims have remained relatively contained, but the composition of hiring remains narrow – health care, construction, logistics and leisure are doing the heavy lifting, while consumer-facing sectors are notably restrained. The May US ISM PMIs saw the employment sub-index rise in manufacturing (48.6) but come in a tick lower in services (47.9), while the May ADP employment report was higher at 122,000. The ADP, coupled with the weekly unemployment claims, suggests the ‘low hire, low fire’ environment remains in play.On the surface, the labour market has held up, and US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) have beaten expectations in each of the last two months, with the economy adding an average of about 80,000 jobs per month this year, enough to keep unemployment anchored at 4.3%. Market consensus ahead of today’s data sits around 85,000 (median), with an estimate range of 125,000 (high) to 50,000 (low). As I noted in yesterday’s post, ‘a print at or above 125,000 would catch many off guard (especially coupled with low unemployment and higher wage growth) and likely prompt investors to fully price in a rate hike this year (currently at 18 bps of tightening by year-end), action that could underpin the USD. Anything at or below 50,000 (accompanied by higher unemployment and lower wages) could be considered dovish, potentially removing most of the tightening bias from this year’s curve and weighing on the buck’.