08/06/26 Weekly OutlookBitcoin / TetherUSBINANCE:BTCUSDTProR35Last weeks high: $74,092.00 Last weeks low: $59,141.00 Midpoint: $66,616.50 BTC opened near the $74,092 weekly high, sold off hard for five straight sessions into the $59,141 low around June 6, then bounced and is now consolidating at ~$62,658 sitting right underneath the 0.25 line at $62,878. BTC traded near $64,100 on June 4 after falling from an intraweek high of $72,840, pressured by sticky inflation concerns, uncertainty around Federal Reserve rate cuts, renewed U.S. dollar strength, and accelerating ETF outflows. Then on June 5, Bitcoin breached the $62,000 support level, causing massive liquidations of leveraged long positions totaling $1.5 billion causing the capitulation wick down toward $59k. CPI on Wednesday, June 10. Inflation has been re-accelerating, with the annual rate in April climbing to its highest level in nearly three years. Things got hawkish enough that by mid-May, traders moved away from expecting any Fed rate cuts and began anticipating a higher probability that the next move would be a hike, with market pricing implying roughly a 37% chance of an increase before year-end. A hot CPI print confirms that narrative; a soft one reopens the door to cuts. For the bulls, BTC held the weekly low and reclaimed the low-$62ks, a $1.5B long liquidation event often marks a local capitulation that clears leverage and resets funding. Extreme Fear readings have historically coincided with short-term bottoms. If Wednesday's CPI comes in cool, the "cuts are back on the table" trade could fire quickly — the same sensitivity that crushed price on hawkish data works in reverse. The bull objective for the week is reclaiming the 0.25 level ($62,878) decisively, then pressing toward the midpoint. The bear case is simpler and arguably has the macro wind at its back. Price is rejecting at the 0.25 from below, ETF outflows are persistent rather than one-off, and the inflation/Fed setup skews hawkish into both CPI and the FOMC. If CPI runs hot, expect a retest of the weekly low. A clean break below that opens air down toward the high-$50ks with no obvious structure until then.