ERIKA SOLOMON, FARNAZ FASSIHI, TYLER PAGER2026年6月10日周一，伊朗与以色列交火后，德黑兰的一场集会。 Arash Khamooshi/Polaris for The New York TimesFor weeks, the parameters of a preliminary agreement to end the war between the United States and Iran have been clear to its negotiators. The hang-up? How to devise a deal so each side can claim a win.几周以来，结束美伊战争的初步协议框架对双方谈判代表来说已经非常明确。症结在于如何设计一项协议，让双方都能宣称自己是赢家。Washington and Tehran — both neither fully victorious nor completely defeated in the war — badly want a deal. But they also need something they can present as favorable to the hawks and hard-liners back home.华盛顿和德黑兰在这场战争中都是既没有完全获胜，也没有彻底失败，双方都非常渴望达成协议，但也需要一些能在国内鹰派和强硬派面前交代得过去的东西。Added to this fundamental dispute are the peculiarities of the two countries’ leaders. One of them is in hiding and slow to sign off on any proposal; the other is so unpredictable, his own envoys struggle to negotiate on his behalf.除了这一根本分歧之外，两国领导人的特殊性也增添了变数。一位领导人正处于躲藏状态，迟迟不愿批准任何提案；另一位领导人则是难以预测，就连他自己的特使都很难代表他进行谈判。Unsuccessful efforts at devising this alchemy of wording have mired the two sides in a state of neither war nor peace. They have left the global economy in limbo, too, as both sides continue their blockades of the vital Strait of Hormuz.在斡旋措辞方面屡屡受挫令双方陷入了不战不和的僵局。由于双方都在继续封锁至关重要的霍尔木兹海峡，全球经济也随之陷入了悬而未决的状态。The longer this uncertainty persists, mediators warn, the higher the risk the whole peace process will be derailed. The tenuous nature of it all was reinforced on Monday when Israel and Iran exchanged strikes for the first time since the April cease-fire, bringing the Middle East back to the precipice of full-blown war before both sides backed down.调停人警告说，这种不确定性持续得越久，整个和平进程偏离轨道的风险就越高。周一，以色列和伊朗自4月停火以来首次交火，将中东重新推向全面战争的边缘，随后双方才各自退让，这进一步凸显了当前局势的脆弱性。Any framework for a peace agreement is likely to require Iran to allow normal maritime traffic through the strait and the United States to halt its blockade of Iranian vessels. It is also likely to include a pledge to hold a second phase of negotiations culminating in Iran’s giving up its highly enriched uranium stockpile and Washington’s easing economic sanctions in return. And any deal is widely expected — perhaps most problematically for President Trump — to unlock some of Iran’s frozen assets.任何和平协议框架都可能要求伊朗允许通过该海峡的正常海上交通，并要求美国停止对伊朗船只的封锁。它还可能包括承诺举行第二阶段谈判，最终使伊朗放弃高浓缩铀库存，华盛顿则以放松经济制裁作为回报。此外，外界普遍预期，任何协议都将解冻部分伊朗被冻结的资产——这对比特朗普总统来说可能也是最棘手的问题。The dilemma is how to sequence the terms, said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House.查塔姆研究所中东和北非项目主任萨纳姆·瓦基尔表示，现在的难题在于如何安排各项条款的顺序。“The U.S. wants to get everything and not give too much at the beginning,” she said. “And the Iranians want to get things at the beginning and give things along the way.”“美国希望从一开始就获得一切，同时又不愿付出太多，”她说。“而伊朗人希望一开始就获得利益，在后续过程中再做出让步。”4月，德黑兰的一块广告牌上，新任最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊（右）与其父阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊并列。On one side of the equation is Iran’s supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, who is still in hiding out of concern about being targeted like his father, the former supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, killed by U.S.-Israeli strikes in their opening salvos of the war. Mediators interviewed for this article, who like other officials requested anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic matters openly, said it took days to respond to tweaks in the framework because of the courier system used to communicate with him.利益天平的一端是伊朗最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊。他目前仍处于躲藏状态，担心自己会像他的父亲、在战争初期美以联合打击中丧生的前最高领袖阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊那样成为目标。接受本文采访的调停人员表示（他们与其他官员一样，要求匿名以便公开讨论敏感的外交事务），由于与他沟通时采用信使系统，对框架进行微调都需要几天时间才能得到回复。Just as Mr. Trump faces Iran hawks at home, the younger Khamenei needs to ensure that the deal does not incense his hard-liners, particularly high-ranking officers in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. They argue that Iran — with its newfound ability to close traffic in the Strait of Hormuz — should not concede anything to a country that killed many of their top leaders. Convinced that Washington will inevitably attack Iran again, they are pushing the kind of aggressive posturing that led to Tehran’s strikes on Israel this week.正如特朗普在国内面临对伊鹰派的压力，小哈梅内伊也需要确保该协议不会激怒国内的强硬派，特别是伊斯兰革命卫队的高级军官。他们认为，凭借最新获得的封锁霍尔木兹海峡交通的能力，伊朗不应该向一个杀害了该国许多最高领导人的国家作出让步。他们深信，华盛顿终将再次攻击伊朗，因此他们正在推动那种导致本周德黑兰对以色列发动打击的激进姿态。Then there is a mercurial Mr. Trump, frustrated by his inability to speak directly to Mr. Khamenei and impatient with Iran’s drawn-out negotiating style. He has repeatedly reneged on terms agreed to by his top negotiators, a dynamic that began in the very first round of talks after the cease-fire in Pakistan in April, two mediators and an official with direct knowledge told The New York Times.另一方面则是变幻莫测的特朗普，他因无法直接与哈梅内伊对话感到沮丧，并且对伊朗拖沓的谈判风格感到不耐烦。两名调停人和一名直接知情的官员告诉《纽约时报》，他曾多次背弃自己的首席谈判代表同意的条款，这种局面始于4月巴基斯坦斡旋下停火后的首轮会谈。At those negotiations, they said, Mr. Trump’s envoys — the real estate mogul Steve Witkoff and Vice President JD Vance — told the Iranians that Mr. Trump would accept a deal in which Iran suspended its nuclear enrichment program for 10 years. Iranian officials said they agreed to that initial proposal — and were shocked when the president turned around and insisted on a 20-year suspension. It was a major reason, the mediators said, that those talks fell apart.他们称，在这些谈判中，特朗普的特使——房地产大亨史蒂夫·威特科夫和副总统万斯——告诉伊朗人，特朗普将接受一项要求伊朗暂停其核浓缩计划10年的协议。伊朗官员表示同意这一初步提议——但后来总统态度大转弯并坚持要求暂停20年，伊朗官员感到震惊。调停人说，这是导致该次谈判破裂的一个主要原因。In the latest round of negotiations, some mediators and Iranian officials said that as the two sides waited days for Mr. Khamenei to respond to the latest draft, Mr. Trump added new conditions regarding Iran’s nuclear program and frozen assets. The move infuriated Iranian officials, who described it as validating Tehran’s mistrust of Mr. Trump.在最新一轮谈判中，一些调停人和伊朗官员表示，就在双方等待哈梅内伊对最新草案作出回应的几天里，特朗普就伊朗核计划和冻结资产问题提出了新条件。这一举动激怒了伊朗官员，他们声称，这印证了德黑兰对特朗普的不信任。3月拍摄的一张卫星图像显示了位于伊朗中部纳坦兹核设施附近的隧道群。The chaotic nature of the talks themselves has not helped matters. Because Tehran continues to refuse direct talks with Washington, a rotating set of countries — currently Pakistan and Qatar — have to shuttle between them. At times, analysts said, there is more than one document in circulation, with only a few people at the very top aware of which draft is the live one.谈判本身混乱的性质也无助于局面。由于德黑兰继续拒绝与华盛顿直接对话，一些轮流担任中间人的国家——目前是巴基斯坦和卡塔尔——必须在两国之间穿梭。分析人士指出，有时候会有多份文件同时流传，只有极少数高层人员知道哪一份草案才是正在讨论的版本。Despite the starts and stops, most analysts believe that some kind of a preliminary deal — likely to be temporary and vague — will emerge in coming weeks. “Not because anyone wants one,” Dr. Vakil said, but because both sides need one.尽管谈判时断时续，但大多数分析人士认为，未来几周内将达成某种初步协议——可能是暂时的，而且措辞模糊。“不是因为有人想要达成协议，”瓦基尔表示。“而是因为双方都需要一份协议。”Iran, suffering from runaway inflation and a currency collapse even before the war, is plunging ever deeper into a devastating economic crisis. Mr. Trump has to grapple with deeper global economic shocks as his party faces midterm elections this fall amid crushing prices at the gas pump.伊朗在战前就饱受通货膨胀失控和货币崩溃之苦，如今正愈发深陷一场毁灭性的经济危机。而特朗普也不得不应对更深层次的全球经济冲击，与此同时，他的政党将面临今年秋天的中期选举，汽油价格也居高不下。During a call on Monday, Mr. Trump told Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel that the United States and Iran were within days of a breakthrough for talks on a long-term nuclear deal, according to multiple officials with knowledge of the call.据多位知情官员透露，在周一的通话中，特朗普告诉以色列总理内塔尼亚胡，在关于长期核协议的谈判方面，美国和伊朗距离取得突破仅剩几天时间。Even if an initial deal is reached, the probability that it will lead to a final, comprehensive nuclear agreement is far less likely, Ms. Vakil said.瓦基尔说，即使达成初步协议，它最终能演变为全面核协议的可能性也微乎其微周一，特朗普总统乘坐海军陆战队一号直升机抵达纽约。Keenly aware of the slim chances of reaching a final deal, Tehran is insistent on the unfreezing of tens of billions of dollars’ worth of frozen Iranian assets in the region — a term U.S. negotiators initially agreed to, mediators and Iranian officials said.德黑兰深知达成最终协议的机会渺茫，因此坚持要求解冻伊朗在该地区价值数百亿美元的资产——调停人和伊朗官员表示，美方谈判代表最初曾同意这一条件。But this has become a thorny issue for Mr. Trump, who is fixated on not wanting to look weak and who was a vocal critic of the Obama and Biden administrations for unfreezing several billion dollars’ worth of Iranian assets in apparent exchange for the release of U.S. citizens.但这对于特朗普来说已经成为一个棘手问题。他非常执着于不让自己显得软弱，而且他曾公开批评奥巴马和拜登政府似乎为了换取美国公民获释而解冻数十亿美元的伊朗资产。Elian Peltier对本文有报道贡献。Erika Solomon是《纽约时报》伊朗和伊拉克分社社长。Farnaz Fassihi是时报联合国分社社长，领导对该组织的报道。她还报道伊朗问题，从事中东冲突报道长达15年。Tyler Pager是时报白宫记者，报道特朗普总统及其政府。翻译：晋其角点击查看本文英文版。