AI giants, SpaceX gear up for IPOs: Are these companies overvalued, and can Indians invest in them

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Within days of each other, two of the world’s most closely watched artificial intelligence (AI) companies in Anthropic and OpenAI have confidentially filed paperwork for public listings in the US, setting the stage for what could be some of the largest and most hotly anticipated technology initial public offerings (IPOs) in history. Elon Musk’s SpaceX is also gearing up for what could be the biggest IPO ever attempted, in terms of valuation.The offerings are likely to draw intense interest from investors globally who, until now, have largely watched the AI boom from the sidelines. Much of the value created by the rise of generative AI has accrued to private investors, venture capital firms, and strategic backers such as big technology companies. Public listings by the companies building the foundational models themselves would offer retail and institutional investors a rare opportunity to directly participate in what many see as the defining technological shift of the decade, even as concerns over a potential bubble around AI remain.Anthropic, fresh off a $65-billion funding round that valued it at roughly $965 billion, has already begun the process, while OpenAI has followed with its own confidential filing and is targeting a valuation that could touch the $1-trillion mark. SpaceX is seeking a valuation of around $1.75 trillion.Also in Explained | Orbital data centres, extraterrestrial energy: Detailing Musk’s ambitions with $1.75 bn SpaceX IPOYet, alongside the excitement lies a growing debate over whether private market valuations have raced ahead of business fundamentals. With investors pouring unprecedented sums into AI and frontier technology companies, some analysts have cautioned that expectations embedded in current valuations may prove difficult to justify.Here’s why some are cautious around lofty AI-linked valuations, and how Indian investors – who are willing to bet on touted AI gains – can participate in these upcoming IPOs. Concerns around ‘AI-washing’Analysts at the investment research company Morningstar have valued SpaceX at roughly $780 billion — less than half its IPO target — arguing that investors may be placing overly optimistic bets on future growth and unproven businesses linked to AI. Morningstar has also questioned the economics of some of the company’s AI ambitions and said the market may be getting ahead of fundamentals.If the company achieves the valuation target of about $1.75 trillion, it would surpass even Saudi Aramco’s 2019 debut as the world’s largest IPO.Story continues below this adAlso in Explained | Did Pope Leo’s AI encyclical give Anthropic a legitimacy boost ahead of its IPO push?Founded in 2002, SpaceX has evolved from a rocket launch startup into one of the world’s most influential technology firms, spanning space transportation, satellite internet, and AI infrastructure. Of the company’s total addressable market, which it pegs at $28.5 trillion, about $26.5 trillion is linked to AI.There are echoes of Tesla in the debate surrounding SpaceX’s valuation. When Tesla went public in 2010, sceptics argued that investors were paying a steep premium for a company that had yet to prove it could scale production or generate sustained profits. Yet Tesla ultimately justified much of that optimism by reshaping the global automotive industry and becoming one of the world’s most valuable companies.The key difference, though, is that Tesla’s valuation debate centred on a tangible product and a clearly identifiable market opportunity. In SpaceX’s case, critics argue that a significant portion of its proposed valuation rests on more speculative assumptions around Starlink’s future growth and the economics of AI-linked businesses.Indian retail investors can participate in SpaceX’s upcoming IPO, but the process isn’t as straightforward as investing through a demat account in the Indian stock market. Story continues below this adAccording to a blog post by the stock trading platform Upstox, “Indian residents cannot directly participate in this IPO. However, they may do so through their overseas brokerage accounts funded under the RBI’s Liberalised Remittance Scheme (LRS).”NewsletterFollow our daily newsletter so you never miss anything important. On Wednesday, we answer readers' questions.SubscribeUnder the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) LRS, Indians can freely remit up to $250,000 per financial year for permissible capital and current account transactions, including for investments in foreign IPOs. Potential investors can set up an account with one of the many overseas brokerage platforms. Upstox noted that while Indian investors can participate in the IPO, “the chances of allotment of SpaceX shares through the initial public offering are low”. It is always a challenge for a foreign retail investor to get a US IPO allotment, because most of the US IPO allotments are typically made to institutional investors, the trading platform said. Reports suggest that nearly 30% of the offering will be earmarked for retail investors, with the rest reserved for institutional investors. An IPO, however, is not the only way to buy shares of the company, and investors may purchase the stock once it is publicly listed.