6/5/26 - $sbet - Quick comment...Sharplink, Inc.NASDAQ:SBETVROCKSTAR6/5/26 :: VROCKSTAR :: SBET Quick comment... - 50% of book - i'll take it to 60 or more if we cross $5 - turns out encrypted bitcoin (i.e. zec) isn't bitcoin - i think this mythos/ llm hitting defi contracts is the concern here and as you know eth is priced in many ways i find it most helpful to think about as a "key" to the tvl "vault". in other words, eth secures the tvl riding on ethereum - so min mulitple would be 4x, at peak you start to play the eth-as-money game, maybe 5-7x on tvl - if TVL (see defillama) goes to say $30B and you put that 4x on it you get to $120B (which in itself is pretty laughably low, but putting aside the feels)... that's about 30% downside from here. that puts ETH at 1.1-1.2k from the $1.6k today - do i think it gets there? coin flip. how about in the next weeks? probably not - that's too easy - so my sense is we will mean revert, bears get rekt. bulls come back in "generational buy" (which is is but patience is needed... and sorely missing today)... and we go say 1.8-2k or above... then to find new lows at the 1.2-1.3k level - so buying sbet at 20% off spot today puts you at $1.3k today. does that mean it won't trade to $4/share which implies more or less $1.0k eth? or even lower? idk. been around long enough to know to expect the best, but plan for the worst because you'll be caught off guard and then you are fighting emotions on top of price action and then you should risk manage by trimming at the bottom (the right move) and we all know selling the bottom is... not ideal. - so ideally you determine how much you can afford to lose if eth gets cut another 40-50% and you size manage that position - you have a target if goes to say $4.5/share (sbet) i'm going to take this position to x%. if runs in this next few weeks (higher) i am going to take some of the excess i bought to y%. - just have a plan. it helps keep the emotions at a min because they'll be there regardless, even if it happens. "oh i should have sold more or had less position". reality is nobody knows what happens in the ST - mythos. defn a defi "known known" risk and zec headline didn't help - the quantum stuff is years off but market likes pretending the narrative drives price. nope people just grasping for story in a bear market. always happens. - but it won't be easy. that's why there's a lot to be gained here - just manage risk, size according to your tolerance. - and honestly at $5/share... leverage probably doesn't get you much more flex than a theta bleed if thesis takes longer to play out or if we go much deeper. spot looks good. option in itself :) - will post more on this position in the coming week(s) V