XAUUSD — Bearish Continuation | SPCX IPO Risk-On ConfluenceGold vs US DollarPEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDCabeeroJUNE 12, 2026 | MULTI-TIMEFRAME SUPPLY AND DEMAND ANALYSIS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Bias: BEARISH Timeframe: Intraday / Scalp Execution: 1M to 15M Context: H1 to H4 Catalyst: SpaceX / SPCX IPO risk-on environment Gold is showing bearish continuation structure today. A strong monthly decline has broken major intraday support, and today’s macro backdrop adds bearish pressure on top of weak technical structure. This is not a clean reversal setup yet. It is a potential continuation and acceleration day. MACRO CONTEXT SpaceX / SPCX is expected to begin trading on Nasdaq under ticker SPCX. Key macro idea: If the SPCX listing creates strong risk-on sentiment, capital may rotate from safe-haven assets into equities. That can pressure Gold lower, especially if Nasdaq and S&P remain strong, VIX stays compressed, and US yields remain elevated. Main bearish drivers for Gold: 1. Risk-on liquidity rotation A major IPO can attract capital into equities. If investors move into risk assets, safe-haven demand for Gold can weaken. 2. Geopolitical risk premium fading If US-Iran peace headlines continue improving, some of the geopolitical premium supporting Gold may unwind. 3. Higher US yields and lower VIX Elevated US 10Y yields are a headwind for Gold because Gold does not pay yield. A falling VIX also supports risk-on conditions, which can weaken safe-haven demand. MULTI-TIMEFRAME STRUCTURE MONTHLY May closed bearish. June is trading inside the prior monthly body. Long-term bullish structure may still be intact, but the current corrective phase is active. Current monthly pressure remains bearish until price reclaims key higher-timeframe resistance. WEEKLY Weekly structure is showing lower highs and lower lows. Price broke below key weekly support. Former support may now act as resistance. A weekly close below the current support area can confirm more downside. DAILY Daily structure remains bearish. Price is forming lower highs and lower lows. The current bounce looks corrective unless price breaks and holds above major resistance. Price is testing resistance from below. RSI recovery from oversold does not automatically mean reversal. H4 H4 structure remains bearish. Price broke down from higher resistance. Current bounce is entering a possible H4 supply area. Stochastic bounce may explain short-term upside, but it does not confirm a bullish reversal. No major bullish reversal confirmation yet. H1 Price bounced from the recent low area. This move may be a retracement into supply. H1 lower high may be forming. Watch for H1 break of structure lower to confirm short continuation. KEY LEVELS RESISTANCE / SUPPLY R4: 4,493 to 4,540 Higher-timeframe flip zone. Former support, now resistance. R3: 4,329 to 4,435 Major supply cluster. R2: 4,250 to 4,270 Intraday supply and possible retracement target. R1: 4,210 to 4,230 Immediate resistance and Asian session ceiling. SUPPORT / DEMAND S1: 4,097 to 4,127 Previous breakdown level. S2: 4,059 to 4,080 Recent wick low cluster and sell-side liquidity area. S3: 3,997 to 4,047 Structural demand zone. S4: 3,886 to 3,932 Deep higher-timeframe demand. S5: 3,771 to 3,817 Extended bearish target zone. PRIMARY TRADE SETUP: SHORT Setup type: Supply zone short Liquidity sweep entry CHoCH confirmation Do not anticipate. Wait for SPCX to begin trading and confirm market direction first. Conditions for short activation: SPCX opens above IPO price and holds higher. VIX remains below 21. Nasdaq and S&P hold gains or extend higher. DXY stays flat to mildly bullish. Gold rejects from supply. Execution model: 1. Wait for Gold to push into 4,210 to 4,270 supply. 2. Identify a liquidity sweep above the Asian session high or above a previous 15M or H1 high. 3. Wait for 5M CHoCH lower. 4. Refine entry to a 1M or 5M bearish order block or fair value gap inside supply. 5. Enter short on the retest of the refined OB or FVG after confirmation. Entry zone: 4,220 to 4,265 Stop loss: Above the protected swing high inside supply plus 5 to 8 points buffer. Estimated stop area: 4,275 to 4,285 Take profit 1: 4,120 Take partial profit near previous liquidity. Take profit 2: 4,060 to 4,080 Equal lows and sell-side liquidity target. Take profit 3: 3,997 to 4,000 Psychological level and structural demand. Minimum R:R: 1:2 minimum Preferred R:R: 1:3 or higher Short invalidation: Gold closes above 4,300 on H1. SPCX opens weak and dumps below IPO price. VIX spikes above 22. Iran headlines turn risk-off. Gold breaks and holds above supply instead of rejecting. SECONDARY TRADE SETUP: LONG This setup only activates if SPCX creates risk-off reaction or crashes after open. Conditions for long activation: SPCX opens strong, then reverses sharply below IPO price. VIX spikes above 22. Nasdaq reverses negative. Risk-off headlines return. Gold sweeps sell-side liquidity and shows bullish confirmation. Execution model: 1. Wait for Gold to sweep below 4,059 to 4,080. 2. Look for 5M BOS higher after the sweep. 3. Refine entry to a 1M or 5M bullish order block or fair value gap inside demand. 4. Enter long on the retest after confirmation. Entry zone: 4,065 to 4,090 Stop loss: Below the protected swing low plus 5 to 8 points buffer. Estimated stop area: 4,045 to 4,055 Take profit 1: 4,180 to 4,200 Take profit 2: 4,220 to 4,250 Minimum R:R: 1:2 minimum Preferred R:R: 1:2.5 to 1:3 Long invalidation: No BOS forms after sell-side sweep. Price continues lower without reaction. SPCX recovers and holds above IPO price. Nasdaq rebounds and risk-on resumes. NO TRADE CONDITIONS Stay out if: SPCX price discovery is delayed for too long after Nasdaq open. Gold stays trapped between 4,150 and 4,230. There is no clean liquidity sweep. There is no CHoCH or BOS confirmation. News headlines are contradictory. VIX stays between 19 and 21 with no clear direction. Spreads widen too much. Your attention is split between SPCX and Gold. Price enters the middle of the range with poor R:R. TIMING GUIDE UTC+9:30 Nasdaq open: 11:00 PM Friday Possible SPCX first trade: Around 12:00 AM to 1:00 AM Saturday Best Gold observation window: After SPCX first trade Best execution window: 30 to 60 minutes after SPCX starts trading, only if direction is confirmed. INDICATOR CONFLUENCE Market structure: Bearish on Daily, H4, and H1. 50-day SMA: Acting as possible resistance from below. 200-day SMA: Far above current price, showing depth of correction. RSI: Recovering from oversold, but this can be corrective. VIX: Lower VIX supports risk-on sentiment. DXY: Neutral to mildly bullish DXY can pressure Gold. US 10Y Yield: Elevated yields are bearish for non-yielding Gold. Equities: Strong Nasdaq and S&P support risk-on conditions. FINAL VERDICT Bias: Bearish Best model: Liquidity sweep into supply, CHoCH lower, then 1M or 5M OB/FVG short. Primary short zone: 4,220 to 4,265 Primary target: 4,060 to 4,080 Hard invalidation: H1 close above 4,300 Trade before SPCX opens: No Best approach: Wait 30 to 60 minutes after SPCX starts trading. Let the market reveal risk-on or risk-off direction. Then trade Gold only after confirmation. This trade is wrong if: Gold breaks and holds above 4,300. SPCX dumps below IPO price. VIX spikes above 22. Gold shows strong bullish BOS after sweeping sell-side liquidity. RISK NOTE This is educational analysis only, not financial advice. Gold is highly volatile, especially around major macro events. Use proper risk management. Risk small. Wait for confirmation. Do not chase the first move.