Skip to navigationSkip to main contentSkip to right columnADVERTISEMENTReuben Gregg Brewer, The Motley FoolSun, June 7, 2026 at 5:35 PM GMT+2 4 min readChevron's (NYSE: CVX) first-quarter 2026 earnings were a bit weak, falling 35% year over year. That figure sounds bad, but it masks material underlying strength. Notably, there was a one-time hit due to the timing of certain hedging activity, which will likely reverse later in the year, making future quarters look even better. With the company growing production by 24% and returning a huge $6 billion in cash to shareholders, is now the time to buy Chevron?Chevron's earnings aren't telling the whole storyThe big story in the energy sector today is the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. The high energy prices resulting from supply constraints caused by this conflict didn't actually start until partway through the first quarter. Add in the $2.9 billion headwind from the timing of hedging activity, and Chevron's first quarter actually looked fairly weak.Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »Image source: Getty Images.But there were good things going on underneath that high-level figure. Notably, the Hess acquisition allowed the company to dramatically increase production. That said, Chevron also saw strong production numbers from its Gulf of America and Permian Basin activity. That should set the company up for better financial results in the second quarter and beyond. Meanwhile, the globally diversified integrated energy giant continues to reward investors, paying $3.5 billion in dividends and repurchasing $2.5 billion in stock. It has increased its dividend annually for decades, making its 3.7% yield a fairly attractive option for dividend investors.Emotions are driving Chevron's price todayFrom a business perspective, Chevron is usually a good choice in the energy patch. Its business spans the entire energy value chain, and it is financially strong. And, as noted, it is a reliable dividend payer. However, investors need to keep the broader picture in mind. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has upended the global energy market, and news flow from the conflict is pushing oil prices higher and lower in quite dramatic fashion.The conflict has also led to a surge in Chevron's stock, along with the rest of the sector. If oil prices fall sharply after the conflict ends, Chevron's stock is likely to decline, as well. It probably won't matter how well the business is performing on a fundamental level; news-driven emotions will likely drive investment decisions.Terms and Privacy PolicyPrivacy & Cookie SettingsMore Info