Skip to navigationSkip to main contentSkip to right columnADVERTISEMENTRich AsplundThu, June 4, 2026 at 6:22 PM GMT+2 4 min readJuly NY world sugar #11 (SBN26) today is down -0.02 (-0.14%), and Aug London ICE white sugar #5 (SWQ26) is up +0.50 (+0.11%).Sugar prices recovered from early losses today and are mixed after dollar weakness spurred some short-covering in sugar futures.More News from BarchartCoffee Prices Slump on a Record Brazil Coffee CropCocoa Prices Pressured Over Chocolate Demand ConcernsCoffee Prices Sink on a Record Brazil Coffee CropMarkets move fast. Keep up by reading our FREE midday Barchart Brief newsletter for exclusive charts, analysis, and headlines.Sugar prices are under pressure today amid a -3% decline in crude oil (CLN26). The weakness in crude oil undercuts ethanol prices and could prompt the world’s sugar mills to divert more cane crushing to sugar production rather than ethanol, thus boosting sugar supplies.Also, the outlook for ample global sugar supplies is bearish for prices. Last Wednesday, Unica reported that 2026/27 Brazil Center-South sugar production in April rose +55.3% y/y to 2.475 MMT, driven by higher yields, with sucrose per ton of cane at 112.58 kilograms, up +5.4% from the same time last year.Strength in Thailand’s sugar exports, the world’s second-largest, is also bearish for prices. Thailand’s 2026 sugar exports Jan-Apr rose +29% y/y to 1.6 MMT.Sugar prices have support amid concerns that dry weather from an El Niño event could disrupt global sugar production. The emergence of an El Niño is likely to curb rainfall in Brazil, India, and Thailand, the world’s three largest sugar-producing regions. India’s weather office recently lowered its cumulative rainfall estimate for the June-September monsoon season last Friday to 90% of the long-term average, down from a forecast of 92% issued in April. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates an 82% probability that El Niño conditions will emerge between May and July and persist through the end of the year, with a 67% chance of a “Super El Niño.”On April 28, Conab, in its initial report for the new sugar season, forecast that 2026/27 Brazilian sugar output will decline by -0.5% to 43.952 MMT, while ethanol output will climb by +7.2% y/y to 29.259 million liters. On April 21, the USDA forecast Brazil’s 2026/27 sugar production at 42.5 MMT, down -3% y/y, citing millers crushing more cane for ethanol than for sugar.Sugar prices have found some support amid concerns about supply disruptions stemming from the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz. According to Covrig Analytics, the closure of the strait has curbed approximately 6% of the world’s sugar trade, constraining refined sugar output.Terms and Privacy PolicyPrivacy & Cookie SettingsMore Info