CHOE SANG-HUN2026年6月9日金正恩2019年抵达靠近中越边境的越南同登火车站。 Athit Perawongmetha/ReutersDuring the pandemic, the North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, who had long billed himself as invincible, made a stunning, teary-eyed apology on national television.在疫情期间，长期以来一直自诩战无不胜的朝鲜领导人金正恩在国家电视台上发表了热泪盈眶的惊人道歉。“I am really sorry,” he said, as the coronavirus, coupled with food shortages and international sanctions, was ravaging his country. “My efforts and sincerity have not been sufficient enough to rid our people of the difficulties in their life.”“我深感歉意，”他说。当时，新冠疫情加之粮食短缺和国际制裁正无情地摧残着他的国家。“我的努力和诚心不足以使人民摆脱生活困难。”But while ordinary North Koreans were suffering, Mr. Kim, 42, seized the crisis as a unique opportunity. Now, he is brimming with confidence. He is recognized at home and abroad as North Korea’s most powerful leader to date, surpassing even his grandfather, the country’s founder, because he has achieved the status of a de facto nuclear power.然而，就在普通朝鲜民众深陷苦难之时，42岁的金正恩却将这场危机视为一个绝佳的机遇。如今，他信心满满。由于他使得朝鲜成为事实上的核大国，他被国内外公认为迄今为止朝鲜最有权势的领导人，甚至超越了他的祖父——该国的开国元勋。He started during the pandemic by shutting down the border with China, issuing shoot-to-kill orders to stop North Koreans fleeing across the boundary. He clamped down on trade and smuggling across the border, forcing his people to rely less on imports and produce more goods domestically. His campaign also targeted the informal markets where many had eked out a living — trading Chinese goods and foreign entertainment smuggled in on thumb drives — ever since the devastating famine of the 1990s.在疫情期间，他首先关闭了与中国接壤的边境，下达格杀勿论的命令，阻止朝鲜人越境逃亡。他严厉打击边境贸易和走私活动，迫使民众减少对进口的依赖，转向增加国内生产。他的整肃行动还把矛头对准了非正规市场——自20世纪90年代毁灭性的饥荒以来，许多人一直依靠这些市场里买卖中国商品以及U盘走私入境的外国娱乐节目勉强度日。By dismantling these underground markets, Mr. Kim strengthened the regime’s monopoly over the economy and ideology. Enforcement was brutal. Those caught distributing K-pop or K-dramas were publicly executed.通过摧毁这些地下市场，金正恩加强了该政权对经济和意识形态的垄断。执法手段异常残暴。被发现传播韩国流行音乐或韩剧的人遭到公开处决。At the same time, he flouted international sanctions to steadily expand his nuclear arsenal. North Korea built a new generation of missiles capable of striking its nearest adversaries, South Korea and Japan, with nuclear warheads. It is also developing the means to target the American mainland, through nuclear-powered submarines and intercontinental ballistic missile technology.与此同时，他无视国际制裁，稳步扩充其核武库。朝鲜制造了新一代导弹，能够用核弹头打击其最近的对手——韩国和日本。朝鲜还在研发能够打击美国本土的手段，包括核动力潜艇和洲际弹道导弹技术。Mr. Kim also seized an unexpected opening abroad. As Russia struggled in its war against Ukraine, he gave it weapons and troops. Moscow reciprocated with weapons technology to help modernize North Korea’s air defenses and other vulnerable parts of its military, along with badly needed food, oil and even tourists. The two nations signed a mutual defense and cooperation treaty, easing Pyongyang’s economic isolation and lifting its international status.金正恩还在海外抓住了一个意想不到的突破口。当俄罗斯在对乌克兰的战争中陷入困境时，他向俄罗斯提供了武器和军队。作为回报，莫斯科提供了武器技术，帮助朝鲜实现防空系统及军队中其他薄弱环节的现代化，并提供了朝鲜急需的粮食、石油甚至游客。两国签署了共同防御与合作条约，从而缓解了平壤的经济孤立局面，提升了朝鲜的国际地位。金正恩的地位提升在2025年北京的一次阅兵式上得到了展示，当时他与俄罗斯总统普京、中国国家主席习近平并排而立。Since then, he has rebuffed any idea of renewing talks with President Trump or reconciling with South Korea. And his tilt toward Russia has prodded China to warm up to North Korea, a neighbor that Beijing views as hard to manage but whose hostility toward Washington gives it diplomatic leverage.从那时起，金正恩拒绝了任何与特朗普总统重启谈判或与韩国和解的提议。而他向俄罗斯的倾斜也促使中国开始主动向朝鲜示好；在北京看来，这个邻国虽然难以驾驭，但其对华盛顿的敌意却能为中国提供外交筹码。China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, arrived in North Korea on Monday for a two-day state visit, his first in seven years. He is expected to underscore China’s indispensable position as North Korea’s dominant trading partner. The countries are already expanding trade again, resuming train service and adding more flights between Beijing and Pyongyang. They are close to completing a new modern road bridge across the Yalu River border, which is expected to facilitate bilateral exchanges, including an influx of Chinese tourists and aid.中国最高领导人习近平于周一抵达朝鲜，开始为期两天的国事访问，这是他七年来首次访朝。预计他将强调中国作为朝鲜主导贸易伙伴不可或缺的地位。两国已经在重新扩大贸易，恢复了列车服务，并增加了北京与平壤之间的航班。一座横跨鸭绿江边境的全新现代化公路桥即将竣工，预计这将促进双边交流，令大批中国游客和援助物资涌入朝鲜。Poverty endures outside Pyongyang, yet analysts say the recent developments have given the government confidence and the public some hope. At his Workers’ Party congress earlier this year, Mr. Kim triumphantly declared that North Korea was in a glorious and more prosperous new era, a far cry from his weeping apology in 2020. People can now hope to have “both sweets and bullets,” the party said, referring to its policy of seeking both economic recovery and military prowess.在平壤之外，贫困依然存在，但分析人士表示，近期的这些发展为政府赋予信心，也给了公众一丝希望。在今年早些时候召开的劳动党代表大会上，金正恩得意洋洋地宣布，朝鲜正迈入一个辉煌且更加繁荣的新时代，这与他2020年声泪俱下的道歉形成了鲜明对比。劳动党表示，人们现在可以期望同时拥有“糖果与子弹”，这是指其同时谋求经济复苏和军事强盛的政策。To uncover how Mr. Kim pulled off this transformation, The New York Times spoke with more than a dozen post-pandemic defectors, interviewed experts with inside connections, and scrutinized state media and leaked regime documents.为了揭示金正恩如何完成这一逆转，《纽约时报》采访了十多位在疫情后逃离的脱北者，走访了拥有内部人脉的专家，并仔细研究了朝鲜官方媒体和遭泄露的政权文件。Jiro Ishimaru, the chief editor of the Japan-based Asia Press International, which has clandestine correspondents inside North Korea, said, “In the past few years, Kim Jong-un has traveled from hell to heaven.”总部位于日本的亚洲新闻在朝鲜国内安插有秘密通讯员，该社主编石丸次郎说：“在过去几年里，金正恩可以说是从地狱升入了天堂。”鸭绿江断桥（右）以及连接朝中两国的中朝友谊桥。据中国官方称，近六年来首列从朝鲜开往北京的列车在经过近一天的行程后，于3月13日上午抵达。The Threat威胁North Korea claims that it defeated Covid without vaccines, losing only a few dozen people.朝鲜声称，该国在没有疫苗的情况下战胜了新冠疫情，仅有几十人丧生。But as the virus spread, Kim Il-hyeok saw people die in unusual numbers in his neighborhood in Hwanghae Province, a breadbasket region. The authorities were siphoning rice from the region to feed the elites in Pyongyang and the military, he said. There were no Covid tests available so it was hard to tell whether they died of hunger or the virus. Those who fell sick did not report it to the authorities for fear of being quarantined without food. Lacking medication, they resorted to folk remedies, such as drinking tree-bark juice, that often worsened their condition.但随着病毒的蔓延，金日赫（音）目睹了他所在的黄海道（朝鲜产粮大省）的自家社区里，出现了非同寻常的死亡人数。他说，当局不断从该地区调取大米，供养平壤的精英阶层和军队。由于无法进行新冠检测，很难分辨这些人究竟是死于饥饿还是死于病毒。生病的人不敢向当局报告，生怕面临被隔离后断粮的绝境。由于缺乏药物，他们只能求助于偏方，比如喝树皮汁，但这往往只会使他们的病情加重。“Families didn’t have money for coffins,” said Mr. Kim, 36, who fled to South Korea by boat with eight relatives in 2023. “Some were not even strong enough to dig a hole.”“很多家庭没钱买棺材，”36岁的金日赫说。2023年，他与八名亲属乘船逃到了韩国。“有些人甚至连挖坑掩埋尸体的力气都没有了。”Kim Yu-mi, his sister-in-law, made the two-hour escape with him. She said her hometown on the southwestern coast of North Korea was so close to South Korea that in clear weather she could see shiny passenger jets flying in and out of the South’s Incheon International Airport.他的嫂子金有美（音）与他一同完成了这场耗时两小时的逃亡。她说，她位于朝鲜西南海岸的家乡离韩国非常近，在天气晴朗的时候，她甚至能看到闪闪发光的客机在韩国仁川国际机场起降。“Those planes symbolized freedom for our children,” Ms. Kim said. “When a North Korean patrol ship detected our boat fleeing to the South and chased, we threw everything we had overboard to help it gain speed.”“飞机象征着我们孩子未来的自由，”金有美说。“一艘朝鲜巡逻艇发现了我们逃往韩国的船只，展开了追击，我们把船上所有的东西都扔进海里，就是为了让船跑得更快。”The family’s escape represented the threat the outside world, especially South Korea, posed to the regime.这个家庭的逃亡折射出外部世界——尤其是韩国——对该政权构成的威胁。North Koreans’ trust in the government has been waning since the 1990s famine, according to defectors. As the government’s ration system collapsed, North Koreans learned to fend for themselves through informal markets where they traded goods, including those smuggled from China. The markets also became a breeding ground for corruption as officials collected kickbacks from tradespeople.脱北者们表示，自上世纪90年代的饥荒以来，朝鲜民众对政府的信任就一直在减退。随着政府配给制度的崩溃，朝鲜人学会了通过非正规市场买卖包括中国走私品在内的商品，以此自谋生路。这些市场也成为了腐败的温床，因为官员们会向商贩索取回扣。With those goods came memory sticks containing South Korean shows, including “Crash Landing on You,” in which a paragliding mishap takes a South Korean heiress into North Korea and into the arms of a People’s Army officer. North Koreans consumed them with a vengeance — behind closed doors and under blankets for fear of the secret police, who routinely monitored neighborhoods, Ms. Kim said.伴随这些商品一同流入的还有装满韩国影视节目的U盘，其中就包括《爱的迫降》——该剧讲述了一位韩国财阀女继承人因滑翔伞事故意外坠落朝鲜，并与一名人民军军官相爱的故事。金有美说，朝鲜民众对此类节目的渴望达到了痴迷的程度——由于害怕常常在社区巡查的秘密警察，他们只能关起门来，躲在被窝里偷偷观看。In 2010, Ms. Kim’s coastal town was caught in an artillery duel between the two Koreas. Residents rushed to take down portraits of state leaders to protect the images, a sign of their devotion and loyalty. By 2023, Ms. Kim said, about eight out of 10 people in her neighborhood were watching South Korean shows — a sign of how much had changed.2010年，金有美所在的沿海小镇卷入了朝韩两国间的一场炮战。当时，居民们争先恐后地取下国家领导人的画像加以保护，以此展现他们的虔诚与忠心。然而，金有美说，到了2023年，她所在的社区里大约有八成的人都在观看韩国节目——这足以说明变化是多么巨大。2010年，朝鲜向韩国延坪岛发射炮弹，双方发生交火，造成两人死亡。“Loyalty to the party was no longer as important as making money,” she said.“对党的忠诚已经不再像赚钱那么重要了，”她说。This shift alarmed Pyongyang. Kim Jong-un was increasingly worried about “nonsocialist” content corrupting young North Koreans, likening it to a “vicious cancer.” His regime called those who exposed themselves to outside influence “treasonous” and called for “striking them mercilessly,” according to a classified document dated June 2024 that was obtained by the Human Rights Foundation, a New York-based nonprofit. The Times has also viewed similar internal documents smuggled out of North Korea.这种转变引起了平壤的警觉。金正恩越来越担心“非社会主义”内容会腐蚀朝鲜的年轻人，他将其比作“恶性肿瘤”。总部位于纽约的非营利组织人权基金会获取了一份日期标注为2024年6月的机密文件。文件显示，该政权将受外界影响的人称作“叛国分子”，要求对他们进行“无情打击”。《纽约时报》也查看过被偷偷带出朝鲜的类似内部文件。For Mr. Kim, the threat posed by freedom of information was deeply personal — his crackdown, analysts say, was driven in part by a desire to suppress knowledge of his lineage.对金正恩而言，信息自由带来的威胁不仅关乎政权，更牵涉其切身隐秘——分析人士指出，他发起这场严打行动的部分原因是为了掩盖有关其身世血统的真相。His mother, Ko Yong-hui, was born in Japan, according to outside historians. That made her of an inferior class in North Korea, a country built on deep hatred for Japan after decades of colonial rule. His father apparently never introduced Ms. Ko and their son to Mr. Kim’s grandfather, Kim Il-sung, defectors have said. The boy was sent to spend part of his adolescence in Switzerland.外部历史学家指出，他的母亲高英姬出生在日本。在经历数十年殖民统治、对日本怀有深仇大恨的朝鲜，这样的身世令她处于较低阶层。据脱北者透露，金正恩的父亲显然从未向金正恩的祖父金日成引见高英姬及其儿子。这个男孩也被送到瑞士，度过了部分青春期时光。The background of Mr. Kim’s mother — long suppressed inside North Korea — became a centerpiece of propaganda for South Korean activists in recent years. They flew leaflets by balloons with this information into North Korea, which helped set off Mr. Kim’s sweeping crackdown on outside information.金正恩母亲的背景在朝鲜国内长期遭到封锁，但近年来却成了韩国活动人士对朝宣传的核心内容。他们利用气球将印有这些信息的传单空投进朝鲜，这也成了触发金正恩全面封杀外部信息的导火索之一。“He was a child hidden from his grandfather, exiled overseas and brought back home after the grandfather’s death,” said Kim Kang, a North Korean diplomat in Russia who defected to South Korea.“他是一个被藏起来不让祖父看见的孩子，曾被流放海外，直到祖父死后才被接回家，”叛逃至韩国的前朝鲜驻俄罗斯外交官金江（音）说。2010年，金正恩与其父、时任朝鲜最高领导人金正日在平壤。目前没有金正恩与爷爷、朝鲜建国者金日成的已知合影照片。 Yao Dawei/Xinhua, via Associated PressBefore she died in 2004, Ms. Ko helped ensure that Kim Jong-il chose their son as heir. Still, Mr. Kim’s “complex was that of the son of a royal concubine,” said Kwak Gil-sup, a North Korea expert at the Seoul-based One Korea Center.在2004年去世前，高英姬协助确保金正日选定他们的儿子作为接班人。即便如此，首尔的朝韩一家中心(One Korea Center)的朝鲜问题专家郭吉燮（音）表示，金正恩心里仍有一种“王室庶子情结”。“When his father was alive, he struggled to win his favor,” Mr. Kwak said. “After he took power, he was driven to prove different and better than his father.”“父亲还在世时，他曾竭力争取父亲欢心，”郭吉燮说。“掌权之后，他一心想要证明自己与父亲不同，并且比父亲更出色。”The Crackdown镇压When he succeeded his father in 2011, Mr. Kim promised North Koreans that they would no longer have to “tighten their belt.” He cast himself as a “people-first” leader, surveying floodwaters by speedboat, visiting victims in temporary shelters and cradling babies on his lap.2011年接掌父位之初，金正恩向朝鲜人民承诺，他们不必再“勒紧裤腰带过日子了”。他将自己塑造成一位“以民为本”的领导人——乘快艇视察洪涝灾区，到临时安置点探望灾民，把婴儿抱在膝上。But his expensive pursuit of nuclear weapons and his own extravagant lifestyle jarred with the reality of regular citizens.然而，他对核武器的巨额投入与自身的奢靡生活与普通百姓的现实处境形成了刺眼的反差。While humanitarian agencies reported widespread malnourishment in the country, Mr. Kim’s waistline ballooned, his weight raising questions about his health. Inheriting his father’s love for wining and dining, he gorged on Wagyu steak, toro tuna, shark fin soup, Swiss cheese, lobster, caviar and foie gras, according to chefs familiar with his dining habits. He guzzled Bordeaux wine and Cristal Champagne.当国际人道主义机构不断报告朝鲜广泛存在营养不良问题时，金正恩的腰围却不断见涨，他的体重甚至引发外界对其健康状况的猜测。据熟悉其饮食习惯的厨师透露，他继承了父亲对美酒佳肴的嗜好，大吃和牛牛排、金枪鱼腩、鱼翅羹、瑞士奶酪、龙虾、鱼子酱和鹅肝，还狂饮波尔多红酒和水晶香槟。Defectors said the capital, Pyongyang, often didn’t have enough electricity to run elevators. But Mr. Kim spent millions of dollars to smuggle a fleet of Mercedes and other luxury cars for personal use, Orlov Trotters from Russia for his private horse-riding tracks and dolphins for a new dolphinarium.据脱北者称，就连首都平壤有时都没有足够电力维持电梯运行。但金正恩却花费数百万美元走私多辆梅赛德斯奔驰和其他豪车供自己使用，从俄罗斯引进奥尔洛夫快步马供其在私人马场驰骋，还为新建海豚馆购置海豚。He exerted power by unleashing what South Korean officials called a reign of terror. He executed those who rubbed him the wrong way, including his own uncle, Jang Song-thaek. He sent agents to assassinate Kim Jong-nam, his half brother who, as his father’s first son, posed a threat to Mr. Kim’s dynastic throne.他通过发动韩国官员所称的“恐怖统治”来巩固权力。凡是令他不满的人都可能被处决，其中包括他的姑父张成泽。他还派特工暗杀同父异母的兄长金正男。由于金正男是其父的长子，因此被视为对金正恩世袭统治地位的潜在威胁。尽管金正恩迅速推动了平壤的发展，但这座城市仍缺乏足够的电力来驱动高层建筑中的电梯。Lee Ilkyu, a former North Korean diplomat in Cuba who fled to Seoul in 2023, recalled how Han Song-ryol, another North Korean diplomat, was executed on spying charges in 2019. Mr. Lee said witnesses told him that hundreds of bullets tore Mr. Han to smithereens.2023年逃往首尔的朝鲜前驻古巴外交官李日圭回忆说，另一名朝鲜外交官韩成烈于2019年因间谍罪被处决。李日圭说，有目击者告诉他，数百发子弹将韩成烈打得稀烂。“They lost their appetite for days,” he said.他说，“他们好几天都吃不下饭。”Still, the state’s control had loosened in the decades following the famine. Then the pandemic helped Mr. Kim reassert his grip.尽管如此，在经历了大饥荒之后的几十年里，国家的控制已经有所松动。随后，新冠疫情帮助金正恩重新收紧了控制。金正恩下令处决的人员中包括他自己的姑父张成泽，图为张成泽，摄于2013年12月12日。He enacted laws with draconian penalties, including executions by firing squad, for those consuming and distributing anti-socialist content, or even mimicking South Korean speech and fashion styles. Officials raided homes, pulling out drawers and turning over blankets to find memory sticks with foreign entertainment, according to defectors他颁布了一系列严苛法律，对观看和传播反社会主义内容、乃至模仿韩国口音和时尚风格的人处以枪决。据脱北者称，官员会突击搜查民宅，翻抽屉、掀被褥，搜缴存有境外娱乐内容的存储设备。Kim Il-hyeok, the defector who fled by boat, said he saw a score of killings in his town in the three years before his escape, compared with half a dozen in the previous two decades. Executions took place in schoolyards and other open spaces where the condemned were denounced before thousands of people. Mr. Kim recounted how a 22-year-old man he knew was executed in 2022 for distributing three South Korean dramas and 70 K-pop songs. He was clad in a long white sack-like robe and had a hood over his head. Three gunmen each fired five shots.乘船逃离朝鲜的脱北者金日赫表示，在他逃离前的三年里，仅在自己生活的城镇就目睹了约20起处决，而此前20年总共也不过六起。处决在学校操场和其他空地上进行，被处决者会在数千名群众面前遭公开批斗。金日赫回忆，他认识的一名22岁男子在2022年因传播三部韩剧和70首K-pop歌曲而被处决。当时那名年轻人身上套着一件白色麻袋状的长袍，头上罩着头套，三名行刑者各开五枪。“When you watch enough of them, you grow numb, unable to tell a human from an animal,” he said.“看多了，人就麻木了，分不清人跟动物有什么区别，”他说。电视剧《爱的迫降》中的一个场景，孙艺珍在剧中饰演一位韩国女继承人，她因意外驾驶滑翔伞飞入朝鲜，并与玄彬饰演的朝鲜军官坠入爱河。By the time they fled North Korea, the authorities had all but stamped out unofficial markets, his sister-in-law, Ms. Kim, said. They reinstalled socialist control on the production and distribution of goods. Rice and other grains were available only through government stores.到他们逃离朝鲜时，当局几乎已经完全取缔了地下市场，金日赫的嫂子说道。政府重新建立起社会主义体制下对商品生产和流通的控制，大米等粮食只能通过国营商店购买。“The most difficult part of Kim Jong-un’s rule was that we were not allowed to make money,” Ms. Kim said. “He tightened the noose on his people, as if he didn’t want them to have a better life.”“金正恩统治时期最困难的一点，就是不让我们赚钱，”金日赫的嫂子说。“他不断收紧套在人民脖子上的绞索，仿佛不愿让他们过上好日子。”The War Bonanza发战争财Around this time, Mr. Ishimaru of Asia Press received covert reports from North Korea of a nation sinking into despair.大约在这一时期，《亚洲新闻》的石丸次郎不断收到来自朝鲜的秘密报告，描绘的是一个正在陷入绝望的国度。Citizens, he said, “saw no way forward, didn’t know how they were supposed to live on” — paralyzed by Mr. Kim’s relentless push for a “self‑reliant” economy, a tired slogan that took on a devastating new meaning during pandemic-driven shortages.他说，民众“看不到出路，不知道该如何活下去”，他们被金正恩对“自力更生”经济的执念所困，这个老套的口号在疫情期间的物资短缺中产生了毁灭性的新含义。But even as Mr. Kim strangled foreign influence at home, he was scheming abroad — maneuvering to arrest his country’s economic tailspin.然而，就在金正恩在国内扼杀外来影响的同时，他也在国际上悄然布局，试图挽救国家经济的螺旋式下滑。With all its major exports blocked under international sanctions, North Korea sought revenue by smuggling out coal and collecting wages earned by its workers in China, who continued to work for Mr. Kim’s government during the pandemic. Mr. Kim unleashed an army of hackers and computer engineers online to steal billions of dollars worth of cryptocurrency and earn cash by doing freelance IT work with false identities.由于主要出口产品都受到国际制裁限制，朝鲜开始通过走私煤炭以及收取在中国工作的朝鲜劳工工资来获取收入。这些工人在疫情期间也继续为金正恩政府工作。金正恩还派出了一支庞大的黑客和计算机工程师队伍，通过网络窃取了价值数十亿美元的加密货币，并以虚假身份承接IT外包项目换取现金。Gold nuggets became an important item to smuggle out of North Korea to sell and raise foreign currency for the state, favored because of their small size, said a senior North Korean trade official who operated in Asia for a decade before defecting to South Korea last year. An internal North Korean document seen by The Times noted that a North Korean consulate vehicle in Dandong, a Chinese border city, was used to smuggle gold into China.据一名在亚洲为朝鲜从事了十年贸易工作、去年逃至韩国的朝鲜高级贸易官员透露，金块因体积小而成为朝鲜走私出境、换取外汇的重要商品。《纽约时报》看到的一份朝鲜内部文件显示，朝鲜驻中国边境城市丹东的领事办公室的车辆曾被用于向中国走私黄金。North Korean government smugglers imported precision tools used to make weapons, paying high margins for middlemen involved in evading sanctions, said the former trade official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to protect his relatives in the North.这名前贸易官员还说，朝鲜政府的走私人员还进口了用于武器制造的精密工具，并为规避制裁的中间商支付了高额佣金。出于保护仍留在朝鲜亲属的考虑，这名官员要求匿名But Mr. Kim needed more to revive an economy that had been hobbled by the double whammy of the world’s severest sanctions and the pandemic.但金正恩需要更多手段来重振因全球最严厉制裁和疫情双重打击而陷入瘫痪的经济。He saw an opportunity after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, offering North Korean troops and munitions.2022年俄罗斯全面入侵乌克兰后，金正恩看到了机会。他向俄罗斯提供军队和弹药。国家媒体发布的一张照片显示，2025年，金正恩在朝鲜一家军火工厂。Munitions factories roared to meet demand for Russia’s war effort. About 16,000 North Korean troops have fought in the war, testing their weapons in combat and gaining valuable insights into modern warfare, including the use of drones, according to South Korean intelligence officials. North Korea also sent workers to Russia to earn cash for its regime, they said. Military experts fear that with Russian help, North Korea is building its first nuclear-powered submarine and other modern warships, as well as a fleet of military drones.军工厂为了满足俄罗斯战争需求而开足马力。韩国情报机构称，约有1.6万名朝鲜士兵参与了战争，他们在实战中测试武器，并获得了关于现代战争的重要经验，包括无人机使用。韩国官员还表示，朝鲜向俄罗斯派遣劳工为政权赚取外汇。军事专家担心，在俄罗斯帮助下，朝鲜正在建造其首艘核动力潜艇以及其他现代化军舰，并打造一支军用无人机机群。In 2024, North Korea’s economy expanded 3.7 percent, the highest growth rate in eight years, according to most recent estimates by South Korea’s central bank. 据韩国央行最新估算，2024年朝鲜经济增长了3.7%，为八年来最高增速。Outside Threats外部威胁The Russia-North Korea military partnership has openly undermined U.N. sanctions — one of Washington’s most relied-upon diplomatic levers. The deepening relationship also serves Mr. Kim’s broader strategic aim: balancing ties between China and Russia.俄朝军事伙伴关系公然破坏了联合国制裁——而这正是华盛顿最依赖的外交杠杆之一。这一日益深化的关系也服务于金正恩更大的战略目标：在中俄之间寻求平衡。“North Korea has the most leverage today that it has had in the last 30 years,” said Frank Aum, a former Korea expert at the Pentagon.“朝鲜如今所拥有的筹码是过去三十年来最多的，”前五角大楼朝鲜问题专家弗兰克·奥姆表示。But North Korea is not out of the woods yet.但朝鲜仍未完全摆脱困境。Its official exports to China have been dominated by items it could export without violating U.N. sanctions — wigs and false eyelashes and mustaches and tungsten ores. Mr. Kim’s crackdown on informal markets impeded the flow of cash. As trade with China rebounded, North Korea imported far more than it exported, eroding its foreign currency reserves. In the past year, the North Korean won has depreciated more than two-thirds against the dollar while rice prices there have more than tripled.其对华官方出口以不违反联合国制裁的商品为主——假发、假睫毛、假胡须以及钨矿石。金正恩对地下市场的打击阻碍了现金流通。随着对华贸易反弹，朝鲜的进口远大于出口，持续消耗外汇储备。过去一年，朝鲜元对美元贬值超过三分之二，而大米价格涨幅超过两倍。Transactions with Russia have not significantly helped ease North Korea’s shortage of foreign currency. Neither side can convert their cash piles into usable currencies without attracting regulatory scrutiny, said Olena Guseinova, a lecturer at the Hankuk University of Foreign Studies in Seoul.与俄罗斯的交易也未能显著缓解朝鲜外汇短缺问题。首尔韩国外国语大学讲师奥莱娜·古谢诺娃表示，俄朝双方都难以在不引起监管机构关注的情况下将各自持有的大量现金兑换成可自由使用的货币。But in the past couple of years, there have been clear signs of economic improvement in North Korea. Mr. Kim finished some of his long-delayed pet projects, like large seaside and ski and spa resort towns and greenhouse complexes built on airfields, including one the size of 400 soccer fields. New apartment towers rose not only in Pyongyang but also in provincial cities. Mr. Kim mobilized soldiers for these construction projects, funding them with remittances from North Koreans working abroad and forced donations from individuals who grew wealthy through smuggling and market activities, according to defectors and analysts.不过，过去几年里，朝鲜经济确实出现了一些明显的改善迹象。金正恩完成了一些长期拖延的重点项目，例如大型海滨度假村、滑雪温泉度假村以及建在机场旧址上的大型温室群，其中一处面积相当于400个足球场。新的住宅高楼不仅出现在平壤，也出现在地方城市。根据脱北者和分析人士说法，金正恩动员军队参与建设项目，并利用海外劳工汇款以及依靠走私和各种市场活动积累起财富的人被强制摊派的捐款来筹集资金。North Korea has added more oil terminals at its ports and there are more cars, buses, trucks and construction equipment visible across the country, said Joung Eunlee, an analyst at the Seoul-based Korea Institute for Unification Studies, who studied satellite imagery and interviewed recent visitors.位于首尔的韩国统一研究院研究员郑恩利（音）通过研究卫星图像和采访近期访朝人士分析称，朝鲜已在多处港口新建石油码头，全国范围内可见的汽车、公交车、卡车和工程设备也增加了。朝鲜官方媒体发布了一张照片，称照片中显示金正恩、其女儿金主爱及其妻子李雪主于6月访问了江原道的元山卡尔玛沿海旅游区。In Pyongyang, which was once dimly lit at night, neon signs blaze brighter than ever.在曾经晚间灯光昏暗的平壤，霓虹灯比以往任何时候都明亮。High-rise apartment towers operate their elevators at least for a few hours a day, according to recent defectors and visitors. There are more gas stations and more privately owned cars, some of them electric vehicles from China. People have lined up at beer halls in Pyongyang. Families use smartphone apps to shop and order home-delivery food. 据近期的脱北者和访朝人士称，高层公寓楼的电梯每天至少能运行几个小时。加油站越来越多，私家车也更多了，其中一些是中国产的电动车。人们在平壤的啤酒屋前排起长队。家庭可以通过智能手机应用购物和点外卖。Senior officials and their families in Pyongyang still live a life the rest of the country can hardly imagine: spacious apartments with saunas, maids, Chinese and Japanese electronics, and elevators running 24/7, said the former trade official who defected last year.去年脱北的那名前贸易官员表示，平壤的高级官员及其家属依然过着朝鲜其他地区难以想象的生活：带有桑拿浴室、有佣人服务、配备了中国和日本产电子产品的宽敞公寓，以及全天候运行的电梯。Addressing North Korea’s rubber-stamp Parliament in March, Mr. Kim spoke in triumphant terms of a “miraculous transformation.” He pointed to manifold increases in investment and sweeping large-scale residential construction.今年3月，金正恩在朝鲜橡皮图章式的最高人民会议上发表讲话，用胜利的口吻谈到了“奇迹般的转变”。他列举了投资大幅增长以及大规模住宅建设项目等成果。“Ours is no longer a country that is susceptible to threats from others, ” he said.“我们的国家不再是一个容易受到他人威胁的国家了，”他说。Grace Moon自首尔对本文有报道贡献。Choe Sang-Hun是时报驻首尔首席记者，报道韩国和朝鲜新闻。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。