USDZAR: The rand failed to take out 16.25US Dollar/South African RandFX:USDZARGoose96The US non-farm payroll print for May solidified the support level at 16.25 for the pair after the payrolls came in at 172 thousand, dwarfing the expectations of around 85 thousand. It was a bloodbath for all risk assets on Friday following the NFP release. The strong US job market has the market increasing their bets for a 25-basis point Fed rate hike which is rand negative despite the SARB’s recent action to front run the Fed’s rate cycle. The USDZAR pair is currently testing the water above the 50-day MA at 16.50 and a move towards the 200-day MA at 16.74 seems inevitable. The failed break of 16.25 means that the long-term weekly idea has not been invalidated (link attached). The crucial level to watch for a continuation of this upward move is whether the 50-day MA holds support for the pair. In terms of technicals, the RSI has room to move higher before the pair hits over bought zones. I added the ZA10Y – US10Y yield spread below to show that the spread has picked up which is also rand negative given the recent strong positive correlation between the bond yield spread and the USDZAR. A host of macro-economic data from SA is on the calendar for the week which I will comment on at the end of the week. Kicking off the activities for the week is the SA 182-day and 91-day T-bill auctions. Additionally, the longer dated 2037, 2039 and 2042 SA Bond auctions are scheduled for Tuesday. The auctions will give key insights on how much appetite foreign investors have left for SA government paper. Tuesday, the latest QoQ and YoY GDP figures for SA will be released with expectations pointing to a meagre sub 1% YoY growth rate. Thursday will see the release of the latest SA current account release for 1Q2026. SA’s current account posted a noteworthy R50.2 billion surplus for the 4Q2025 and Thursday’s release will give valuable insights as to how SA’s terms of trade has developed following the USrael-Iran conflict. SA’s terms of trade has undoubtedly caught punches since the start of the year following the nose jab from the spike in oil prices but also the upper cut from the YTD decline of gold and platinum which has fallen by 12.50% and 18.65%, respectively. While we are on the topic of precious metals and mining, the latest Mining – and gold production results for the month of April. The SA economic calendar will be wrapped up by the April manufacturing results which are also scheduled for Thursday.