RYAN MAC, MIKE ISAAC2026年6月12日SpaceX将首次公开募股的发行价定为每股135美元，公司估值因此达到1.77万亿美元。部分投资者对这一估值是否合理持怀疑态度。 John Raoux/Associated PressIn a pitch to private investors, Elon Musk once predicted that one of his companies would quintuple its revenue to more than $26 billion and nearly quintuple its customer base by 2028.在一次面向私人投资者的推介中，埃隆·马斯克曾预言，他旗下的一家公司到2028年营收将增至五倍、超过260亿美元，用户群也将接近增至五倍。That company was Twitter and those projections were made as Mr. Musk prepared to buy the social media company for $44 billion in 2022.那家公司就是Twitter，上述预测是马斯克在2022年斥资440亿美元收购这家社交媒体公司前夕作出的。Today, Twitter, which has been renamed X, has fallen far short of what Mr. Musk said would happen. The social media platform’s ad revenue plunged 65 percent last year. And it was ultimately folded into SpaceX, Mr. Musk’s rocket company, this year.如今，已更名为X的Twitter远远没有实现马斯克当年的预测。去年这家社交媒体平台的广告收入暴跌65%。而在今年，它最终被并入了马斯克的火箭公司SpaceX。Now as SpaceX readies for a blockbuster initial public offering, Mr. Musk and his investment bankers are selling even loftier propositions about what the rocket and artificial intelligence company will achieve. But those proclamations, coupled with Mr. Musk’s history of overpromising, have some investors increasingly worried that SpaceX — which priced its offering at a $1.77 trillion valuation and is set to begin trading on Friday — may burn them.眼下，随着SpaceX筹备轰动一时的首次公开募股，马斯克和他的投资银行家们正在兜售更为宏大的愿景，描绘这家火箭和人工智能公司的未来蓝图。但这些豪言壮语和马斯克过度承诺的惯常作风正让一些投资者越来越担心：估值达到1.77万亿美元、计划于周五开始交易的SpaceX可能会让他们遭受损失。“It really does feel very much a ‘don’t look at the man behind the curtain’ situation,” said Jim Chanos, the founder of the investment firm Chanos and Company, who predicted the 2001 collapse of Enron, the energy company that was found to have engaged in accounting fraud.“这给人的感觉确实很像‘障眼法’，”投资公司Chanos and Company的创始人吉姆·查诺斯说。他曾预测安然公司会在2001年倒闭——那家能源公司后来被发现存在会计欺诈。Mr. Chanos and others said they were concerned with SpaceX’s finances. The company lost $4.3 billion in the first three months of the year alone and is spending heavily on A.I. development. Revenue was $4.7 billion and growing, but it was far lower than that of tech giants like Meta, which brought in $56.3 billion in the same period and has a stock market valuation of $1.4 trillion.查诺斯等人表示，他们担忧的是SpaceX的财务状况。仅今年第一季度，公司就亏损了43亿美元，而且仍在人工智能研发方面大举投入；其营收达到47亿美元并保持增长，但与Meta等科技巨头相比仍相差甚远——Meta同期营收高达563亿美元，市值约为1.4万亿美元。投资公司Chanos and Company创始人吉姆·查诺斯，他曾准确预测了安然公司2001年的倒闭。At the same time, SpaceX has promised that its total addressable market — which is its revenue opportunity if it captured all the demand across its various industries — is the largest “in human history” at $28.5 trillion. The figure, which depends on SpaceX proving that it can put A.I. data centers in space and develop factories on the moon, dwarfs China’s annual gross domestic product by more than $8 trillion.与此同时，SpaceX声称其总潜在市场规模——即在其涉足的所有行业中独占全部需求的营收上限——是“人类历史上”最大的，高达28.5万亿美元。这一数字比中国全年国内生产总值高出逾8万亿美元，其前提是SpaceX能够证明它可以将人工智能数据中心送入太空，并在月球上建厂。Michael Burry, a hedge fund investor featured in the book “The Big Short” for his predictions on the 2008 financial crisis, said in a Substack discussion last month that any increase in SpaceX’s stock after its I.P.O. would “be on hype and technicals.”因准确预测2008年金融危机而出现在《大空头》一书中的对冲基金投资人迈克尔·贝里上个月在Substack讨论中表示，如果SpaceX上市后股价上涨，“靠的将是炒作和技术面因素”。“Nothing in that S-1 suggests it is worth $1 trillion let alone $2 trillion,” Mr. Burry wrote, referring to the company’s I.P.O. filing.“那份S-1文件中没有任何内容能够表明它值1万亿美元，更遑论2万亿美元，”贝里写道。出现在《大空头》一书中的对冲基金投资人迈克尔·贝里表示，如果SpaceX上市后股价上涨，“靠的将是炒作和技术面因素”。Even some SpaceX shareholders have doubts. Ross Gerber, the chief executive of Gerber Kawasaki, an investment firm that owns SpaceX stock, said the company’s projections reminded him of unverified information that young start-ups used to woo investors. He said he was alarmed by SpaceX’s valuation of $1.77 trillion, which would be more than four times the $400 billion that the company was valued at just 13 months ago.就连部分SpaceX股东也心存疑虑。持有SpaceX股票的投资公司Gerber Kawasaki的首席执行官罗斯·格伯表示，该公司的预测让他联想到年轻初创企业用来诱惑投资者的未经证实的说辞。1.77万亿美元的估值让他感到震惊，因为就在13个月前，该公司的估值还只有4000亿美元。“Investors are paying an extremely high price for this stock,” Mr. Gerber said.“投资者为这支股票支付的价格极高，”格伯说。“投资者为这支股票支付的价格极高，”Gerber Kawasaki首席执行官罗斯·格伯在谈到SpaceX时表示。A SpaceX spokesman did not return a request for comment.SpaceX发言人没有回应置评请求。SpaceX’s bankers, including Goldman Sachs, which is leading the I.P.O. process, have added to the sweeping projections. The Financial Times earlier reported that Goldman had told a potential investor that it expected SpaceX’s total revenue to reach $474 billion in 2030, up from $18.7 billion last year. Morgan Stanley, which is also working on the I.P.O., said in an analysis shared with investors that it anticipated SpaceX’s revenue would hit $3.4 trillion by 2040, according to The Wall Street Journal.SpaceX的承销商——包括主导IPO过程的高盛——也为这些宏大预测推波助澜。英国《金融时报》此前报道，高盛曾告诉一位潜在投资者，预计SpaceX的总收入将从去年的187亿美元增长到2030年的4740亿美元。据《华尔街日报》报道，同样参与IPO的摩根士丹利在分享给投资者的一份分析报告中预计，到2040年，SpaceX的收入将达到3.4万亿美元。Goldman and Morgan Stanley declined to comment.高盛和摩根士丹利均拒绝置评。Morningstar, an investment research company, issued a more sober analysis. The firm said that SpaceX’s I.P.O. price was “overvalued” and that the company was worth around $780 billion. Nicolas Owens, a Morningstar equity researcher, gave SpaceX a 7 percent chance of getting its latest rocket, Starship, to a point where it can be used over and over again like a regular plane, and proving that A.I. data centers were cheaper and more effective than their terrestrial counterparts. In the most optimistic scenario, Mr. Owens said, SpaceX could be valued at $1.97 trillion.投资研究公司晨星发布了一份更为冷静的分析。该公司表示，SpaceX的IPO价格被“高估”，认为其合理估值约为7800亿美元。晨星股票研究员尼古拉斯·欧文斯认为，SpaceX将其最新火箭“星舰”打造成像普通飞机一样可重复使用的可能性为7%，并且需要证明人工智能数据中心比地面数据中心更便宜、更高效。欧文斯表示，在最乐观的情景下，SpaceX的估值可能达到1.97万亿美元。“We’ll know in two to three years if Starship is reusable or a GPU rack in space will be viable or offer some cost savings,” he said, referring to the computer chips used to power A.I. technology. “But the company is asking everyone to decide on Friday if that’s possible and what it’s worth.”“两三年内我们就会知道‘星舰’是否可重复使用，或者太空中的GPU机架是否具有商业可行性或成本优势，”他指的是用于驱动人工智能技术的计算机芯片。“但公司要求所有人在周五就作出判断，决定这一切是否可能实现，以及它值多少钱。”Mr. Musk has also shown a propensity to change his business goals on the fly, analysts and investors said. It was not until last year that he first spoke of data centers in space, and he doubled down on the idea in February after merging SpaceX with his A.I. company, xAI.分析人士和投资者还指出，马斯克有随时调整商业目标的习惯。事实上，直到去年，他才首次提出建设太空数据中心的概念；今年2月，在将SpaceX与自己的人工智能公司xAI合并后，他又进一步加码这一方向。In April, SpaceX said it had agreed to acquire Cursor, an A.I. start-up that develops coding software, for $60 billion, shifting the company into an area it was not previously focused on. Mr. Musk, who has spent billions to build his own frontier A.I. models and his A.I. chatbot Grok, also appeared to change course recently on other A.I. plans.今年4月，SpaceX宣布同意以600亿美元收购开发编程软件的AI初创企业Cursor，使公司业务进入此前从未重点涉足的新领域。马斯克已经投入数十亿美元开发自己的前沿AI模型以及聊天机器人Grok，但最近似乎也在其他AI计划上改变了方向。Last month, SpaceX struck a deal with the A.I. start-up Anthropic to provide it with computing power for products that were not being used by Mr. Musk’s own A.I. services. SpaceX then forged a similar agreement last week to provide Google with computing power.上个月，SpaceX与AI初创公司Anthropic达成协议，把马斯克自己的AI服务未用上的算力提供给对方。上周，SpaceX又与谷歌签署了类似的算力供应协议。SpaceX boosters on Wall Street and social media promoted the deals as wins that would generate tens of billions of dollars in revenue. But naysayers pointed to how the company was making significant changes to its long-term business plans at the last minute.华尔街和社交媒体上的SpaceX支持者将这些交易吹捧为重大胜利，认为它们将创造数百亿美元收入。但批评者指出，这家公司在临门一脚之际对其长期商业计划做出了重大改动。“The real excitement should be about developing some new, powerful agentic model,” Mr. Chanos said. “But xAI seems to be suddenly changing its business model from developing models like Grok to basically becoming a neocloud,” he said, using the industry term for companies that provide computing power to other A.I. firms.“真正令人兴奋的应该是开发出某种强大的新型智能体模型，”查诺斯说，“但xAI似乎正在突然将商业模式从开发Grok这样的模型，转向基本上成为一家新型云计算公司(neocloud)——”他用了业内术语“neocloud”，指为其他人工智能公司提供算力的企业。“That’s crucial because the entire valuation rests on xAI’s progress,” Mr. Chanos said, calling the neocloud strategy a “commodity business” that is valued far lower on the public markets.“这一点至关重要，因为整个估值都建立在xAI的进展之上，”查诺斯说。他将这种“新云”策略称为“大宗商品业务”，其在公开市场上的估值要低得多。Ultimately, SpaceX’s I.P.O. will be a litmus test of investors’ faith in Mr. Musk, Mr. Gerber said. Those willing to pay will do so because Mr. Musk, who previously transformed the car industry with his electric carmaker Tesla, is at the helm of a one-of-a-kind company in SpaceX.格伯表示，归根结底，SpaceX的IPO将是投资者对马斯克信任程度的一次考验。那些愿意出钱的人之所以这样做，是因为马斯克——这位曾凭借电动汽车制造商特斯拉颠覆汽车行业的人——在掌舵SpaceX这家独一无二的公司。“People are paying a trillion dollars for Elon,” Mr. Gerber said.“人们花1万亿买的是埃隆这个人，”格伯说。Ryan Mac是《纽约时报》记者，报道全球科技行业的企业责任问题。Mike Isaac是时报驻旧金山的科技记者，他报道世界上最重要的科技公司以及它们如何塑造线上和线下文化。翻译：杜然点击查看本文英文版。