MICHAEL D. SHEAR2026年6月12日周三在北爱尔兰贝尔法斯特北部举行的抗议活动，起因是两天前发生的一起持刀伤人事件。 Paul Faith/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesThe cycle of violence and right-wing agitation in Britain has become all too frightening and frequent.英国暴力事件和右翼煽动频发，场面令人惊骇。It can start with a stabbing, horrific in nature, that causes fear and anger. Condemnation from political leaders and law enforcement swiftly follows.首先往往是一场性质极其恶劣的持刀伤人事件，从而引发恐惧与愤怒。随后，政治领导人和执法部门会迅速予以谴责。But when the attacker is an immigrant or a person of color, a malign, distorted narrative often explodes onto the internet. Right-wing politicians and commentators seize on it to foment outrage in support of their anti-immigrant agenda, aided by social media algorithms that feed on conflict and division. Within hours, the anger they stoke online has jumped to the real world, setting off protests that become angry riots.但只要袭击者是移民或有色人种，一种带有恶意且歪曲事实的叙事便往往会在互联网上轰然炸开。右翼政治和评论人士会借此煽动愤怒，以支持他们的反移民政治议程，那些靠冲突和分裂来获取流量的社交媒体算法则在其中推波助澜。在几个小时内，他们在网络上挑起的愤怒就会蔓延至现实世界，引发演变成愤怒暴动的抗议活动。There are pleas for calm and promises of action by government and law enforcement. But soon afterward, the cycle begins again.政府和执法部门会呼吁保持冷静并承诺采取行动。但不久之后，一切又会重新开始。Twice in the last 10 days, vicious knife attacks in England and Northern Ireland have followed that pattern. On Tuesday and Wednesday, protesters in Belfast who were furious about an attack by a Sudanese refugee set fire to cars and property and hurled objects at the police. That followed a night of angry rioting in Southampton last week after new video was released in the murder in December of an 18-year-old college student who was falsely accused by his attacker of having perpetrated a racist assault.过去10天里，英格兰和北爱尔兰发生的两次恶性刀刺袭击事件都遵循了这一模式。周二和周三，被一名苏丹难民的袭击事件激怒的抗议者在贝尔法斯特纵火焚烧汽车和房屋，并向警察投掷物品。在此之前，南安普敦上周刚刚经历了一个愤怒的骚乱之夜，当时有关去年12月一名18岁大学生被杀的新视频被公开，该学生曾被袭击者诬陷实施了种族主义袭击。本月早些时候，南安普敦的一场抗议，反对警方关于逮捕亨利·诺瓦克的处理方式。“There’s a playbook,” said Ciarán O’Connor, a senior analyst at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue, which researches extremism, hate and disinformation globally. “An incident of violence like this is identified and rapidly amplified by not just a domestic but a global, transnational, far-right ecosystem who use such incidents to absorb them into their own kind of international narrative.”“这套路是有剧本的，”专注于全球极端主义、仇恨和虚假信息研究的战略对话研究所高级分析师基兰·奥康纳说。“像这样的暴力事件一旦发生，不仅国内，全球跨国的极右翼生态系统都会迅速锁定并将其放大，他们利用这类事件将其吸收到他们自己的那套国际叙事当中。”He said the dynamic has become “alarmingly familiar and even predictable.”他表示，这种动态已经变得“令人警惕地熟悉，甚至是可以预见的”。Britain is not alone. Across Europe and in the United States, ascendant right-wing political groups are amplifying the frustration and anger that people feel in the wake of a scary episode, and funneling it toward hostility to immigrants. Researchers say the pattern is followed by members of the far-right Alternative for Germany, or AfD, in Germany and France’s National Rally Party.英国并非特例。在整个欧洲以及美国，力量正处于上升期的右翼政治团体正在放大人们在可怕事件发生后的沮丧与愤怒，并将其引向对移民的敌意。研究人员表示，德国的极右翼政党德国选择党以及法国的国民联盟党的成员也在遵循这一模式。“We have moved from stoking hatred online to actually bringing it into the streets in a variety of ways,” said Marta Lorimer, a lecturer in politics at Cardiff University. “We’re certainly seeing a blurring between this online world and what is happening in the real world, and, and part of the problem is that the political class doesn’t quite seem to know how to deal with it.”卡迪夫大学政治学讲师玛尔塔·洛里默表示：“我们已经从在网络上煽动仇恨发展到了通过各种方式真正将仇恨带向街头。我们当然看到了这个虚拟网络世界与现实世界正在发生的事件之间界限正变得模糊，而且，部分问题在于政治阶层似乎根本不知道该如何应对这一局面。”Ms. Lorimer said Britain is especially vulnerable because it shares the English language with the United States, which she said makes it easier for right-wing groups there to use the American-based social media companies to stoke anger from afar.洛里默指出，英国尤其易受其害，因为它与美国通用英语，她认为这使得美国的右翼团体更容易利用总部设在美国的社交媒体公司，从远方煽动愤怒。That was the case on Tuesday, when Elon Musk, the owner of X, called for people to “REPEATEDLY and LOUDLY” protest in Belfast. He highlighted an image that listed protest locations distributed by Tommy Robinson, an anti-Muslim agitator in Britain with multiple criminal convictions.周二的情况正是如此，当时X的所有者埃隆·马斯克呼吁人们在贝尔法斯特进行“反复且大声”的抗议。他特别转引了一张列有抗议地点的图片，该图片是由存在多项刑事犯罪前科的英国反穆斯林煽动分子汤米·罗宾逊散布的。汤米·罗宾逊（右二）本月在南安普敦警察局外参加一场抗议活动。“The whole of the United Kingdom is hitting the streets tonight at 7pm following yet another invader attack on our people,” Mr. Robinson, whose real name is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, wrote on X.罗宾逊（其真实姓名是斯蒂芬·雅克斯利-列侬）在X上写道：“今晚7点，随着又一起针对我们人民的入侵者袭击事件发生，整个联合王国都在走上街头。”Nigel Farage, the leader of Britain’s populist, right-wing Reform U.K. Party, has used both of the recent knife attacks to push his anti-immigrant policy agenda. The party has become a major political force in Britain, winning local races across the country last month and consistently topping national election polls. That recent success gives him more political clout than he had a decade ago when his party was on the fringe of British politics.英国民粹主义右翼政党英国改革党的领导人奈杰尔·法拉奇利用最近发生的这两起持刀袭击事件来推进其反移民政策议程。该党已成为英国的一股主要政治力量，上个月在全国各地赢得许多地方选举，并在全国选举民意调查中持续领跑。近期的成功使他拥有了比十年前更强大的政治影响力，当时他的政党还处于英国政治的边缘地带。Speaking on Wednesday, Mr. Farage described the knife attack in Belfast as an attempted “beheading,” adopting language used on the internet despite the fact that no law enforcement or government official has publicly called it that. In that case, the police charged Hadi Alodid, a 30-year-old Sudanese man, with stabbing Stephen Ogilvie in the head, the back and the neck, costing Mr. Ogilvie his eye.在周三的讲话中，法拉奇使用网上流传的说法，将贝尔法斯特的持刀袭击形容为一起企图“斩首”的事件，尽管没有任何执法部门或政府官员在公开场合这样定性过。在这起案件中，警方指控30岁的苏丹裔男子哈迪·阿洛迪德刺伤了斯蒂芬·奥格尔维的头部、背部和颈部，导致奥格尔维失去了一只眼睛。“There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that this man should not have been in this country,” Mr. Farage said, even though authorities said Mr. Alodid was in the country legally.法拉奇说：“在我看来，毫无疑问，这个人根本不应该留在这个国家，”尽管当局表示阿洛迪德在英国拥有合法身份。贝尔法斯特一面墙上写下的一条标语，用以纪念去年在英格兰被谋杀的亨利·诺瓦克，其遇害的方式助长了右翼的愤怒。Sundar Katwala, the director of British Future, a think tank that focuses on issues of identity, said politicians like Mr. Farage are increasingly using what Mr. Katwala called “flashpoint moments” to appeal to the part of his base who want him to embrace more aggressive language.专注于身份认同议题的智库“英国未来”的总监桑德·卡特瓦拉表示，像法拉奇这样的政治人物正越来越多地利用他称为“导火索时刻”的事件，迎合其选民群体中希望他们使用更具攻击性语言的那部分人。There were roughly 500 homicides in Britain last year, many of them shocking. But if the victim isn’t white, or the crime doesn’t fit a narrative that will demonize immigrants, it is not seized on to stoke angry protests.去年英国大约发生了500起凶杀案，其中许多案件令人震惊。但如果受害者不是白人，或者罪行不符合那种能将移民妖魔化的叙事，它就不会被利用来煽动愤怒的抗议活动。Other politicians have urged restraint and calm, while trying to acknowledge the appalling nature of the knife attacks. In Parliament on Wednesday, Prime Minister Keir Starmer condemned Monday’s attack on Mr. Ogilvie in Belfast and the violence in the streets that followed on Tuesday night.其他政治人物则敦促保持克制与冷静，同时也努力去承认这些持刀袭击事件的骇人性质。在周三的议会上，首相基尔·斯塔默谴责了周一对奥格尔维的袭击，以及紧随其后在周二晚上发生的街头暴力事件。“We are all sickened by this attack, but the seeds of violence and disorder have no justification,” he said.“我们都对这次袭击感到恶心，但不能因此播下暴力和混乱的种子，”他说。Kemi Badenoch, the leader of the Conservative Party, said on X that “people have a right to be angry. And people have the right to expect their politicians to secure our borders.” But she called the scenes of rioting in Belfast “deeply disturbing” and said that “no one has a right to burn families out of their homes.”保守党领袖凯米·巴德诺赫在X上表示：“人民有权感到愤怒。人民有权期望他们的政治家能够捍卫我们的边境。”但她称贝尔法斯特的暴动画面“令人深感不安”，并表示“任何人都无权用纵火将一个个家庭逐出家园”。Ofcom, which regulates the communications industry in Britain, has warned online service providers that they have a duty to ensure that they do not spread illegal content that could inflame a crisis — by inciting violence, for example. In an open letter on Wednesday, the agency wrote that “we are already contacting individual providers where we believe there are specific risks around the presence of illegal content relating to the civil unrest.”英国通信业监管机构英国通信管理局已向网络服务提供商发出警告，称他们有责任确保自己不会传播可能激化危机的非法内容——例如煽动暴力。在周三的一封公开信中，该机构写道：“在我们认为围绕与民乱相关的非法内容存在特定风险的地方，我们已经在与各个提供商取得联系。”But those efforts have done little to curb the spread of incendiary and often misleading information on the platforms. Mr. O’Connor, of the Strategic Dialogue institute, said his organization found repeated instances this week of Facebook pages with sketchy claims that the Belfast attacker said “praise be God” in Arabic during the attack.但这些努力几乎无法遏制这些平台上煽动性且往往具有误导性的信息的传播。战略对话研究所的奥康纳表示，他的组织本周反复发现一些脸书页面上的可疑言论，声称贝尔法斯特的袭击者在袭击期间用阿拉伯语高喊了“赞美真主”。Experts who study the online platforms say that they are providing forums for right-wing politicians to become more a part of the mainstream.研究网络平台的专家表示，这些平台正为右翼政治家提供走向主流的舞台。“The stuff that we’re hearing today, 20 years ago, would have been considered absolutely fringe, completely wild things that only the more extremist political parties would ever defend,” Ms. Lorimer said.洛里默说：“我们今天听到的这些内容在20年前会被视为绝对边缘、完全疯狂的言论，只有那些更极端的政党才会去辩护。”At the same time, she said, liberal and centrist politicians like Mr. Starmer in Britain and some Democrats in the United States are feeling pressure to move to the right with policies that respond to the concerns of angry, frustrated voters.与此同时，她表示，像英国的斯塔默和美国的一些民主党人这样的自由主义和温和中派政治家，正感受到向右转的压力，不得不出台政策来回应愤怒、沮丧的选民的关切。That forces the right to “double down into even more extreme policies that then in turn become normalized,” she said. “You really end up in a situation where it escalates quite quickly, and that’s very much where we are right now.”这反过来又迫使右翼“加倍推行更极端的政策，而这些政策随后又变得常态化”，她指出。“你真的会陷入一种局势升级极其迅速的境地，而这正是我们目前的处境。”Michael D. Shear是《纽约时报》资深记者，报道英国政治、文化，以及全球各地外交议题。翻译：经雷点击查看本文英文版。