COMI: Double Top Test — Will the 23.6% Fibonacci Level Hold?Commercial International Bank - Egypt (CIB) S.A.E.EGX_DLY:COMIsnourCommercial International Bank ( COMI ), the heavyweight anchor of the Egyptian Exchange (EGX30), is exhibiting a highly critical technical structural test on its weekly timeframe. After a massive multi-year bullish expansion, the price has formed a clear Double Top pattern at the 145 EGP macro resistance zone, signaling potential distribution. As the stock sits immediately on its short-term structural support, the next few weekly closes will determine whether this is a healthy consolidation or the inception of a deeper macro correction. Technical Analysis Breakdown 1. Chart Patterns & Fibonacci Retracement The Double Top Resistance: Price found severe rejection at 145.01 EGP in early 2026, followed by a secondary lower-high failure at 144.93 EGP recently. This forms a prominent double top barrier that bulls must cleanly break to unlock further upside. Fibonacci Support Test: Laying a Fibonacci retracement from the major late-2025 swing low to the all-time high reveals that the current price (132.39 EGP) is directly testing the 23.6% Fibonacci level (133.93 EGP). The Ascending Trendline: Price is currently riding an intermediate upward-sloping trendline (blue solid line). A decisive weekly close below this line and the 23.6% Fib level will confirm a structural breakdown. 2. Momentum Indicators (MACD & RSI) MACD (12, 26, 9): The MACD line has crossed below its orange signal line from a highly extended position. More importantly, the histogram has flipped negative and is expanding downward, indicating that selling momentum is steadily accelerating on the weekly macro trend. RSI (14): The RSI has broken below its yellow moving average and dropped to 57.72. While it remains in neutral territory, the clear downward trajectory from previously overbought conditions suggests that room for further downside remains before finding an oscillator floor. Trading Scenarios ... ... Scenario # 1: Bearish Breakdown (Confirmation of Double Top) If the weekly candle fails to recover the 23.6% Fib line ($133.93$ EGP) and breaks down past the intermediate ascending trendline, a deeper corrective phase is triggered. Entry Bias: Short positions or capital preservation (selling spot) on a confirmed weekly close below 131.00 EGP. Targets: First downside target rests at the 38.2% Fibonacci level (127.19 EGP), with major structural support waiting at the 50.0% Fib level (121.74 EGP) and the 115 - 116 EGP horizontal liquidity pocket. ... Scenario # 2: Bullish Defense / Consolidation If institutional buyers defend this zone, realizing COMI's underlying systemic importance to the EGX index, expect a sideways accumulation phase. Condition: A strong weekly defense that holds above 131.30 EGP (this week's current low) followed by a push back above 135 EGP. Target: A re-test of the macro double top range at 144.93 - 145.01 EGP. Conclusion & Sentiment Note Risk Warning: As the primary engine of local institutional liquidity in Egypt, COMI's movements dictate the broader health of the EGX30. With MACD momentum shifting bearish on the weekly chart, aggressive buying at these absolute highs carries elevated risk. Wait for confirmation at the trendline intersection before committing fresh capital. Are you accumulating COMI at the 23.6% Fib level, or waiting for a cleaner look at the 121 EGP structural pocket? Let me know your thoughts in the comments! ____________ If this macro analysis brings value to your trading strategy, please support with a boost and follow for more EGX setups!