NDQE-mini Nasdaq-100 FuturesCME_MINI_DL:NQ1!Jerryeeeh# NQ — Short-Term Chop, Long-Term Bull (Daily) **Instrument:** NASDAQ 100 E-mini Futures (NQ) · Daily **Bias:** Pullback within an uptrend — expecting near-term weakness/chop, but the higher-timeframe structure still points higher. ## Structure context - **Strong Low** holding at the base (~22,979 / the 0 Fib). - A series of **BOS** to the upside — trend structure intact. - The recent high is tagged as a **Weak High**. In SMC terms that reads as liquidity above likely to be taken eventually — i.e. new highs are favored *in time*. ## Short-term (the bearish leg) - The current bounce is sitting around the **0.5 retrace** of the prior drop. - Most-bearish path: a **1.5 extension** of the pullback lands near **27,814**, which is *also* the **0.618 retrace** of the preceding rally. - That double-Fib confluence (1.5 extension × 0.618 retrace) makes **27,814 my primary downside reaction zone** — a golden-pocket area I’d watch for buyers. ## Deeper risk - If price rolls over from here, the more pessimistic case carves out an **inverse head & shoulders** with the low near **26,746** (≈ the 0.5 zone) before resuming higher — a bottoming structure rather than an outright trend break. ## Long-term (the bullish thesis) - As long as **0.618 (27,814)** and the **0.5 zone (~26,891 / 26,746)** hold, I stay constructive. - Upside roadmap: reclaim **0.786 (~29,129)** → retest the **Weak High at 30,796–30,804 (1.0)** → extension toward **1.13 at 31,821**. ## Invalidation - A **daily close below 0.618** *and* loss of the **0.5 zone (26,891 / 26,746)** would break the constructive structure and put the long thesis on hold. Everything above that level is still “short-term dip inside a larger uptrend.” ----- Personal notes — not financial advice