Trump shifts Brent downwards and reduces risk premiumBrent Crude Oil SpotACTIVTRADES:BRENTActivTradesBrent falls after Trump shift as geopolitical relief reduces risk premium By Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades Crude oil prices declined in the latest session, with Brent falling more than 8% to around $87.82 per barrel in a single trading day, in a context marked by a sharp shift in the geopolitical tone from the United States regarding Iran and a rapid unwinding of the Middle East risk premium. The move followed initial statements by President Donald Trump on his Truth Social account, where he suggested a potential military escalation and the expansion of targets toward strategic assets such as Kharg Island. The remarks were interpreted by markets as an escalation in geopolitical risk across the region. However, during the close of the US session, the president significantly softened his stance, suggesting progress in diplomatic talks with Tehran and the possibility of de-escalation. This change in narrative triggered a sharp reversal in prices, which had previously traded near recent highs of $95–98 per barrel before correcting strongly during the session, effectively erasing a large portion of the risk premium built up in recent days. The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global seaborne crude trade flows, remains the key area of focus for market participants. However, immediate risk perceptions have eased, reducing upward pressure on prices. The oil decline coincided with a stronger tone across equity markets, driven by expectations of lower inflationary pressures stemming from weaker energy prices. Meanwhile, sovereign bond yields edged lower, reflecting a more relaxed macroeconomic backdrop. Looking ahead, markets will remain highly sensitive to further developments in US–Iran negotiations, as well as any signals from OPEC+ regarding supply policy. The combination of geopolitical and fundamental drivers suggests that volatility is likely to remain elevated. From a technical perspective, the move unfolded from the Asian session through to European trading, with an intraday low at $85.23. Brent is currently holding above its 200-day moving average, a break below which could signal a deeper corrective phase. In that scenario, support is seen at $81.50, followed by $74.79, with a broader point of control around $70.80. The RSI is near 33, indicating sustained downside pressure, while the MACD remains negative with a declining histogram. Brent’s trajectory will largely depend on whether markets consolidate the de-escalation narrative or whether supply disruption risks in the Middle East re-emerge. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.