SOYBEAN FUTURES ....Soybean FuturesCBOT_DL:ZS1!AlexandreScaianskiSOYBEAN FUTURES – Price: 1117.0 Weekly 55 EMA: 1116.0 Weekly 200 EMA: 1152.0 DXY: 99.87 US 10Y Real Yield: 2.198% Bloomberg Commodity Index: 130.48 The macro environment has become significantly less supportive for grains than a month ago: Headwinds DXY approaching 100.00 Real Yield back near 2.20% Bloomberg Commodity Index falling sharply from 138.96 → 130.48 Managed Money reducing longs and aggressively adding shorts.....This is a classic risk-off commodity environment. USDA Crop Progress Assessment : At current prices the market is increasingly pricing a favorable crop outcome. Wyckoff Assessment The structure now resembles: Distribution Buying Climax: 1235 Automatic Reaction: 1170 Secondary Test: 1194 Sign of Weakness: Break below 1170 Last Point of Supply: 1194 Current: Markdown DXY & Real Yield Implications This combination is typically negative for grains. If: DXY breaks 100 and Real Yield moves above 2.25 : Then pressure likely intensifies. Conclusion : The market is at the most important technical location since the 955 low. We have a rare confluence of: Weekly 55 EMA (1116) Deeply depressed 36M COT Index (14.9%) Commercial hedges being reduced Price testing major support versus Aggressive Managed Money short building DXY near 100 Real Yields near 2.20% Wyckoff markdown structure The battle between 1110–1128 will likely determine whether Soybeans are entering a final capitulation phase toward 1082/1038, or beginning a larger re-accumulation process for the second half of the year.