SPX – Cyclical and Structural AnalysisS&P 500SP:SPXJoMerende1. Background Structure The primary interpretation remains based on a yearly cycle low formed at the end of March, from which the market has initiated a new expansion phase. The degree of the current cycle is still to be confirmed: a new yearly cycle or an extended intermediate cycle 👉 In both cases, the broader context remains bullish in the medium term. 2. Current Cycle (Quarterly – Q on lows) The market is currently in the final phase of the first quarterly cycle (Q). This identification is based on: projection of accumulation/absorption on the lows break above the previous Q high 👉 Signals consistent with a mature cyclical structure. 3. Inverse Cycle (Q on highs) The rally into new all-time highs coincided with the completion of an inverse Q cycle. duration: extended but regular development: consistent with projections 👉 Alignment between time and price. 4. Current Phase: Correction The ongoing decline represents the closing phase of the Q on lows. Confirmations: Structural break Violation of the 7333 area, interrupting the bullish sequence Incomplete time structure The base cycle has not yet reached level 6 (0–10 scale) 👉 The correction is active and not yet complete. 5. Lower Timeframe Structure (Key Element) With yesterday’s low — or a potential new low forming today — it is highly likely that a lower-degree cycle has completed, most likely a monthly cycle. This introduces an important dynamic: lower cycle completion → typical condition for a bounce new lower cycle starting → final leg that will lead to the closure of the higher Q cycle 👉 Operational implication: downward pressure remains, but it can be interrupted by a technical rebound. 6. Volume Structure POC positioned at the highs → distribution phase Low-volume areas below price → inefficiencies 👉 This favors: corrective price action filling of low-liquidity zones 7. Cyclical Timing inverse Q → completed Q on lows → in closing phase Time target: ➡️ projection level 8 → mid-July 👉 Consistent with a zig-zag market structure. 8. Price Targets (Fibonacci) Key retracement levels: 0.382 → primary target 0.5 → extended but normal correction Interpretation: 0.382 → orderly correction 0.5 → increased pressure but still healthy beyond 0.5 → higher probability of a prolonged trading range 9. Macro Context Recent data shows wholesale inventories above expectations. Interpretation: inventory build-up → potential weaker demand risk of future production slowdown 👉 Effect: short-term bearish pressure, consistent with the technical setup. 🔴 10. Invalidation Level The corrective scenario is invalidated only by the formation of new highs. 👉 Until then: any bounce should be interpreted as part of the correction not as a structural trend resumption 📌 Operational Summary New cycle started at the end of March First Q in final phase Inverse Q already completed Correction in progress (not finished) Likely monthly cycle low → expected technical bounce Targets: 0.382 primary 0.5 extended Volume structure: distribution Timing: mid-July Invalidation: new highs ⚠️ Note This analysis is based on cyclical models and technical-statistical observations. It represents probabilistic scenarios, not certainties, and remains subject to market evolution and exogenous factors.