US Employment Indicator Falls, Raising Fresh Concerns Over Job Market ResilienceView all comments (0)0A fresh wave of doubt is gripping the U.S. labor market after a key employment indicator fell to its lowest level since October 2024. The Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index (ETI) dropped to 107.55 in July, down from 108.19 in June. This decline coincides with significant downward revisions to official job creation figures for the past two months, shaking confidence in the employment outlook and increasing speculation around upcoming policy responses.The ETI is designed to signal changes in employment trends. When it rises, job growth tends to follow; when it falls, a slowdown—or even job losses—may be imminent. While this month’s drop isn’t massive, it is notable because it follows a downward revision of 258,000 jobs from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for May and June combined. The July jobs gain, reported at just 73,000, was well below expectations.Figure 1: U.S. Employment Trends Index (ETI) over the past 12 months.Political Fallout and Economic ImplicationsPresident Trump’s abrupt dismissal of BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer highlights the tension between political expectations and economic realities. With the labor market showing signs of fragility, policymakers are treading a fine line between optimism and alarm.Despite the headline weakness, The Conference Board’s Mitchell Barnes emphasized that the index remains in a relatively narrow range, indicating some stability beneath the surface.There are signs of weakening labor demand: the share of consumers reporting that jobs were hard to get rose to 18.9%—the highest level since March 2021. At the same time, initial claims for unemployment benefits have started to moderate after three consecutive monthly increases. This divergence illustrates a market that is cooling—but not collapsing.The Federal Reserve will likely view the latest data as a reason to pause rate hikes, though not necessarily to pivot quickly toward cuts. Wage growth, participation rates, and regional labor trends will become more important in shaping forecasts. For now, a cautious stance remains warranted.The July employment data adds to the growing sense that the U.S. labor market may be entering a new phase—less red-hot, more uncertain. Investors and policymakers alike will need to dig deeper into the numbers and look beyond surface-level job gains to get a clear picture of what lies ahead.US Employment Indicator Falls, Raising Fresh Concerns Over Job Market ResilienceView all comments (0)0Latest commentsInstall Our AppScan QR code to install appRisk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.