BTCUSD – Go Short or Go Broke | H4 SetupBitcoin / US DollarCOINBASE:BTCUSDniclaxfx📝Thesis: Just entered a short on BTCUSD based on a confluence of technical and macro signals. This isn’t just about overbought RSI - it’s about asymmetric risk, deceptive bullish structure, and a broader bearish undertone most traders are ignoring. 📉 Setup Breakdown RSI (H4): 85.12 – Extremely Overbought. Historically, this zone has triggered sharp pullbacks. Previous RSI peaks marked “Bear” on chart confirm the pattern(July, August 2025). 📊 Chart Structure: Rising wedge approaching STR resistance zone + 78.6 fib level. Price action looks exhausted, and volume is fading. 🌐 Macro Bias: Despite local bullish momentum, the broader trend remains bearish. Credit spreads are widening, and macro liquidity is tightening. Risk-off tone is creeping in. ⚖️ RR Profile: ATH is just ~$4K above. Downside targets offer cleaner reward zones with tighter invalidation. Stop placed just above STR zone. 🎯 Trade Parameters ✅ Entry: Near STR resistance zone ⛔️ Stop: Above upper trend line / STR zone 🟠 Target 1: Mid-channel support 🟢 Target 2: Lower fib confluence zone 🧠 Macro Overlay U.S. credit spreads are widening (HY index at 2.75%, CDS spreads rising). Government shutdown risk is escalating. Fed is in risk-management mode - not panic yet, but tone is shifting. October is historically volatile (see 2008 analogs) - watch for liquidity stress. ⚠️ TL;DR Shorting BTCUSD here isn’t just technical - it’s strategic. Overbought RSI + bearish wedge + macro stress = asymmetric setup. Risk is capped, reward is clean. Let’s see how it plays out.