Ambac: Surprise Acquisition Changes Outlook (Rating Downgrade)

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Skip to contentHome page Seeking Alpha - Power to InvestorsStock IdeasOct. 02, 2025 11:11 PM ETAmbac Financial Group, Inc. (AMBC) StockAMBCJoseph Parrish2.9K FollowersSummaryAmbac is downgraded to Hold following the surprise $250M ArmadaCare acquisition after selling its legacy guarantee business.The new deal adds product diversification and potential growth, but reintroduces debt and increases risk to the balance sheet.Management maintains 2028 adjusted EBITDA guidance at $80M–$90M, despite the significant size of the ArmadaCare acquisition.I recommend waiting for a lower entry price below $7 or more clarity in Q3 results before considering AMBC a Buy again.wildpixel/iStock via Getty ImagesAmbac (NYSE:AMBC) is a specialty P&C insurer that I've covered many times. While I've rated it a Buy, a sudden acquisition that followed the long-awaited sale of their legacy guarantee business has changed the outlook somewhat. Consequently, IThis article was written byJoseph Parrish2.9K FollowersI analyze securities based on value investing, an owner's mindset, and a long-term horizon. I don't write sell articles as those are considered short theses, and I never recommend shorting.Former advisory representative at Fidelity. I do my own investing now and share my research here.Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.I exited my position in AMBC already.Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.CommentsRecommended For YouAbout AMBC StockSymbolLast Price% Chg1D5D1M6M1Y5Y10YMarket CapRev Growth (YoY)Short InterestPrev. CloseMore on AMBCRelated StocksSymbolLast Price% Chg--1D5D1M6M1Y5Y10YTrending AnalysisTrending NewsSeeking Alpha - Power to InvestorsPower to InvestorsFollow usDownload appContact usSubscription Support: 1-347-509-6837© 2025 Seeking AlphaTo ensure this doesn’t happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser.Is this happening to you frequently? Please report it on our feedback forum.If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh.