Research Report – USD/INR Technical & Macro OutlookU.S. DOLLAR / INDIAN RUPEEFX_IDC:USDINRCharts_MavenI. Technical Analysis Chart Pattern: USD/INR is currently forming a Bullish Flag pattern after completing waves (1) to (4) as per Elliott Wave structure. The corrective wave (4) has concluded around 88.40 – 88.50 levels, aligning with support from trendline and Bollinger Band lower zone. Wave Projection (Elliott Wave): Expected Wave (5) targets are: 0.618 extension: 89.20 1.000 extension: 89.61 1.618 extension: 90.28 This suggests a bullish move towards 89.20 – 90.30 levels in the near term. Momentum Indicators: Bollinger Band squeeze signals upcoming volatility expansion. RSI remains neutral-to-bullish, supporting further upside. Technical View: Bullish bias as long as USD/INR sustains above 88.40. Upside targets at 89.20 / 89.60 / 90.30. II. Global Economic Factors US Dollar Drivers The US Fed’s monetary stance remains a key driver. Persistently higher US yields and hawkish tone could strengthen USD further. US economy shows resilience in labor and consumer spending, supporting USD demand. India-Specific Macro RBI has intervened intermittently to stabilize INR, but India’s current account deficit pressure (due to higher crude oil imports) adds INR weakness. Capital inflows through FPI/FDI remain supportive, but outflows on risk-off sentiment could weigh. Global Risk Factors Crude Oil Prices: Sustained Brent above $95/bbl adds to India’s import bill, weakening INR. Geopolitical Uncertainty: Middle East tensions and Asian trade imbalances could fuel safe-haven demand for USD. China Slowdown: Weak Asian demand environment indirectly pressures EM currencies including INR. III. Risk Factors RBI intervention risk near 89.50/90.00 levels. Sudden reversal in crude oil prices. Global risk-on flows into emerging markets, strengthening INR unexpectedly. IV. Analyst View Short-term traders: Buy on dips towards 88.50 – 88.60, SL: 88.20, Targets: 89.20 / 89.60 / 90.30. Medium-term investors: Maintain cautious bullish stance; INR may depreciate further if crude oil and US yields remain high. V. Methodology Elliott Wave Analysis (Wave Count 1–5). Bollinger Bands & RSI for momentum confirmation. Macro drivers: Fed policy, RBI stance, crude oil dynamics, FII flows. VI. Mandatory Disclosures Analyst Certification: I/We hereby certify that the views expressed above are based on independent research and information believed to be reliable. Conflict of Interest: The analyst(s) and entity have no financial interest or actual/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in USD/INR or related instruments. Regulatory Note: This report has been prepared in compliance with SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014 and amendments thereof. Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. Forex trading carries high risk due to volatility and leverage. Investors should consider their risk appetite before acting on this analysis.