FundamentalOverviewThe USD has been weakalmost across the board since the NFP report as the softer than expected datatriggered a quick dovish repricing and a change in stance for many Fed members.The market is pricing 57bps of easing by year-end compared to just 35 bps before the NFP release. It’shighly likely that more benign data will see Fed Chair Powell opening the doorfor a cut in September at the Jackson Hole Symposium. The focus now turned to theUS CPI report. We saw some dollar strength yesterday which could have beenhedging activity into the risk event. The recent Fedspeak suggests that a ratecut in September might be unavoidable, so we might need very hot inflation datato change their mind (and of course a good NFP report in September).On the EUR side, we haven’tgot anything new in terms of fundamentals after the US-EU trade deal that settariffs at 15%. Many ECB members are now taking a much more neutral approach torate cuts. They will need significant negative data to force them to cutfurther. The market is pricing just 11 bps of easing by year-end so anotherrate cut has less than 50% chance of happening. EURUSD TechnicalAnalysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we cansee that the key resistance around the 1.1575 level got breachedlast week and we extended the gains as more Fed members turned dovish. We havenow pulled back into the resistancenow turned support and this is where the CPI will likely decide the nextdirection. Buyers will look for a bounce and a rally into the 1.1750 level, whilethe sellers will look for a break lower and target new lows.EURUSD TechnicalAnalysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we cansee more clearly the 1.1590 support zone. This is where we can expect thebuyers to step in with a defined risk below the zone to position for a rallyinto the major downward trendlinearound the 1.1750 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a breaklower to pile in for a drop into the 1.14 handle.EURUSD TechnicalAnalysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here as the buyers willlook for a bounce, while the sellers will target a break. The red lines definethe average daily range for today.UpcomingCatalystsToday we have the US CPI report. OnThursday, we get the US PPI and the US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, weconclude the week with the US Retail Sales and the University of MichiganConsumer Sentiment report. Focus also on Fedspeak, especially after the US CPIdata. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.