PABLO ROBLES, CHOE SANG-HUN2025年8月12日2022年11月，金正恩与金主爱。 Korean Central News Agency, via ReutersKim Jong-un introduced his daughter to the world in November 2022 with a show of affection and menace, holding her hand in front of an intercontinental ballistic missile.2022年11月，金正恩以一种温情与威慑并存的方式向世界介绍他的女儿，他牵着她的手，站在一枚洲际弹道导弹前面。Since then, state media has shown Kim Ju-ae more and more prominently next to her father, the leader of North Korea.从那以后，朝鲜官方媒体开始越来越突出地展示金主爱在父亲身边的画面。2023年4月2024年2月2024年5月Now she is being hailed as a “great person of guidance” — a sign, experts say, that she is perhaps being groomed to take the reins of the isolated, nuclear-armed regime one day.如今，她被誉为“伟大的向导者”——专家称，这或许意味着她正被培养为这个孤立的核武政权的未来接班人。2025年4月2025年6月She holds no known official title in North Korea. The outside world has never heard her voice. The North’s state media has not even named her, referring to her only as the “most beloved,” “respected” or “dear” daughter of its leader.在朝鲜，她没有任何已知的官方头衔。外界从未听过她的声音。朝鲜的官方媒体甚至没有提及她的名字，仅以“最心爱的”“珍视的”或“亲爱的”领袖之女来称呼她。But intelligence officials and analysts in South Korea are paying close attention to the young woman whom they consider to be her father's most likely successor.但韩国的情报官员和分析人士正密切关注这位他们认为最有可能成为其父接班人的年轻女性。She is believed to be just 12.据信她年仅12岁。The New York Times analyzed hundreds of images and videos of Ju-ae’s public appearances since her debut three years ago to trace her transformation from a shy girl by her father’s side to a poised public figure who shares center stage with him.《纽约时报》分析了三年前金主爱首次亮相以来的数百份公开露面的影像资料，追踪她从父亲身边的腼腆女孩逐渐转变为能与父亲共享舞台中央的从容公众人物的过程。Some analysts say she has largely replaced her mother, Mr. Kim’s wife, Ri Sol-ju, in the role of first lady. North Korea has been ruled by the Kim family since its founding at the end of World War II, making it the only dynasty in the communist world.一些分析人士表示，她在很大程度上已经取代了母亲——金正恩之妻李雪主的“第一夫人”角色。自“二战”结束朝鲜建国以来，这个国家就由金家统治，成为共产主义世界中唯一的世袭王朝。South Korean intelligence officials believe that Mr. Kim most likely has two children. There have also been unconfirmed reports that he might have a third child, possibly a son older than Ju-ae. But Ju-ae is the only child who has made public appearances. If she is her father’s designated successor, she would be in line to become the first woman to rule North Korea’s deeply patriarchal and highly militarized society and the world’s newest nuclear power. Mr. Kim is only 41 but, with a family history of heart trouble, preparing a successor makes sense.韩国情报官员认为，金正恩很可能有两个孩子。也有未经证实的报道称，他可能还有第三个孩子，或许是一个比金主爱年长的儿子。但金主爱是唯一公开露面的孩子。如果她被指定为父亲的接班人，她将成为朝鲜这个高度父权制和军事化的社会以及世界上最新核大国的第一位女性领导人。金正恩年仅41岁，但鉴于其家族有心脏病史，培养接班人是合理之举。Here is a look at Ju-ae’s rise.以下是金主爱崛起轨迹的关键节点。Taking the Stage步入舞台Ju-ae has undergone a striking transformation in North Korea’s tightly choreographed state media.在朝鲜精心编排的官方媒体报道中，金主爱经历了显著的转变。Intelligence officials and analysts in South Korea caution against firm conclusions about her future role. But as her profile has risen, she has eclipsed her mother and Mr. Kim’s powerful sister Kim Yo-jong, also once considered a potential successor, as the main female face of the ruling family.韩国情报官员和分析师对于就她未来角色做出明确结论持谨慎态度。但随着曝光增加，她已超越母亲，以及曾被视为潜在接班人的金正恩之妹金与正，成为这个统治家族的主要女性代表。2022年11月In Ju-ae’s first public appearance, she stood behind with her mother as Mr. Kim talked to military officials at a missile test.金主爱首次公开露面是在父亲与军方将领讨论导弹试验相关事宜的时候，她和母亲站在父亲身后。2023年2月Three months later, she attended a state banquet celebrating the 75th anniversary of the Korean People’s Army with her parents.三个月后，她与父母一同出席了庆祝朝鲜人民军成立75周年的国宴。2023年2月She is often portrayed as a loving daughter in a happy family.在报道中，她常被描绘成幸福家庭的孝顺女儿。2023年2月When she took in a military parade, she stood on the podium behind her father, alongside her mother.观看阅兵式时，她和母亲一起站在父亲身后的主席台上。2023年9月But over time, she made her way to the front row.但随着时间推移，她逐渐走到了前排。20223年11月Then, in November 2023, state media carried a photograph featuring Ju-ae front and center, with Mr. Kim taking a background spot. It spoke volumes about her status. Mr. Kim had never before been relegated to a secondary role, and a picture like this would not have been published without his permission, analysts say.随后，在2023年11月，官方媒体发布了一张金主爱位于画面中心的照片，金正恩则处于背景位置。这张照片充分说明了她的地位。分析人士称，金正恩此前从未处于次要位置，这样的照片若未经他批准，是绝不可能发布的。2024年3月In March 2024, she took a more active role in military settings.2024年3月，她在军事场合中扮演了更积极的角色。2024年3月That same month, she joined her father to inspect the Gangdong Greenhouse agricultural complex, part of a series of events meant to highlight domestic achievements.同月，她陪同父亲视察江东温室农业综合体，这是一个系列活动，旨在彰显国内建设成就。2024年8月Only months later, Mr. Kim’s sister was on hand to usher her niece onto the podium at a state ceremony.仅几个月后，在一场国家仪式上，金正恩的妹妹陪同侄女走上主席台。2024年10月Mr. Kim also nudged his daughter forward to greet the Russian ambassador, signaling her growing diplomatic role.金正恩还鼓励女儿上前迎接俄罗斯大使，这标志着她在外交方面的角色已初现端倪。2025年6月，左为俄罗斯大使。This year, Ju-ae received foreign dignitaries with Mr. Kim. She was mentioned before her father’s top aides when state media reported the list of notables who attended government events.今年，金主爱与金正恩一同接待外国政要。在官方媒体报道出席政府活动的重要人物名单时，她的名字被排在父亲的高级助手之前。When Mr. Kim and his daughter visited the greenhouse complex, state media called them “great persons of guidance” — an honorific that over the years has been reserved for only North Korea’s top leader and his designated successor.当金正恩和女儿视察温室综合体时，官方媒体称他们为“伟大的向导者”——多年来，这一尊称仅用于朝鲜最高领导人及其指定接班人。North Korea also began issuing postage stamps bearing the images of father and daughter together.朝鲜还开始发行印有父女二人肖像的邮票。2023年至2024年“In North Korea, where officials and people are not ready to accept a female leader, Kim Jong-un is making his daughter’s successor status a fait accompli by repeatedly exposing her through state media,” said Cheong Seong-chang, an analyst at the Sejong Institute in Seoul who has written books on Mr. Kim and his family.“在朝鲜，官员和民众尚未准备好接受一位女性领导人，金正恩通过官方媒体反复曝光女儿，让她的接班人地位成为既成事实，”首尔世宗研究所分析师郑相昌说，他撰写过关于金正恩及其家族的书籍。A New Look新形象Ju-ae’s birth and name were first revealed to the outside world by the retired N.B.A. star Dennis Rodman, who met the Kim family during a visit to North Korea in 2013.金主爱的出生和名字最初是由退役的NBA球星丹尼斯·罗德曼透露给外界的。他在2013年访朝期间与金家有过会面。When she made her first public appearance in 2022 in a white padded winter jacket, Ju-ae looked no different from the other children of the elites in Pyongyang. But as she has grown, her clothes have become more formal, and she has been transformed into a figure of authority. Her wardrobe now includes tailored leather coats with fur collars and two-piece designer suits.2022年，金主爱首次公开亮相时，身穿一件白色厚冬装，看起来与平壤的精英子弟并无二致。但随着年龄成长，她的着装变得愈发正式，而且变得有权威感。她的衣橱现在包括带毛领的定制皮大衣和两件套设计师套装。2022年至2025年As her mother has receded from public view, Ju-ae has begun to adopt her sense of fashion.随着母亲逐渐淡出公众视野，金主爱开始承袭她的时尚品味。Her mannerisms and demeanor have also changed. Even something as small as how she claps looks different now than it did two years ago.其举止作态亦发生了变化，甚至像鼓掌这样的小动作，看起来也和两年前不同了。左为2023年，右为2025年“The child who first appeared as a family curiosity is now a polished, rehearsed figure woven into North Korea’s ongoing story of dynastic power,” said Donald Southerton, the author of “Korea 101.” “Each photo, parade walk and salute I see as a carefully staged story of succession, legitimacy and continuity for the Kim dynasty.”“这个最初作为金家新奇话题亮相的孩子如今已成为朝鲜世袭权力叙事中经过精心打磨、反复演练的符号，”《朝鲜101》一书的作者唐纳德·萨瑟顿说。“我看到的每一张照片、每一次阅兵行走和敬礼，都是金家王朝精心编排的关于继承、统治合法性和延续性的故事。”Should a brother emerge, Ju-ae may end up serving as a mere placeholder, said Kang Dong-wan, an expert on North Korea at Dong-A University in South Korea. For now, though, her prominent portrayal is sending a message to North Koreans that the Kim family rule will continue into a fourth generation.韩国东亚大学朝鲜问题专家姜东完表示，若有男性继承人出现，金主爱最终可能只是一个过渡性角色。不过就目前而言，她的高调形象正在向朝鲜民众传递一个信息：金家的统治将延续到第四代。Her Main Inheritance继承的核心政治资产Mr. Kim chose the launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile, or ICBM, for his daughter’s public debut in November 2022. Since that day, he has taken her to other nuclear-related sites, introducing her to officials involved in North Korea’s weapons programs. He has lauded the arsenal as a major legacy of the family’s rule.2022年11月，金正恩选择洲际弹道导弹试射现场作为女儿首次公开露面的舞台。此后他频繁带着她视察核设施，将她介绍给参与朝鲜武器计划的官员。金正恩将核武库标榜为金家统治的重大遗产。金主爱39次公开露面，有24次是与军事相关的活动。When Mr. Kim himself was being groomed to succeed his father, he first established his authority with the military, the key to maintaining power. Now, by taking Ju-ae to military events, Mr. Kim has been showing her how he handles the top brass.当年金正恩本人被培养为父亲的接班人时，首先是在军队中树立权威，这是维持权力的关键。如今，他也通过军事活动向女儿传授统御之道。He has also offered senior military officers opportunities to meet and show loyalty to her, analysts said.分析人士称，他还为高级将领提供与她会面、表达忠诚的机会。2023年2月Three months after her first appearance, she attended a military parade, walking with her parents and followed by the top brass.在首次亮相三个月后，她参加了一次阅兵式，与父母一同走在前面，身后跟着军队高层。2023年9月At a later parade, a top general was seen kneeling before her, a gesture of deference that had once been reserved for her father.后来的一次阅兵式上，更是出现了一位高级将领跪在她面前的情景，这种恭敬的姿态以前是对她父亲展示的。2023年11月She visited members of the First Air Force Division, signaling her presence across all branches of the military.她视察了空军第一师的成员，显示出她在各军种的存在。2024年2月Soon after, she appeared in official portraits with her father and the top military leadership.不久之后，她与父亲和军队高层一同出现在官方肖像中。2025年6月And this year, she attended the launch of the Kang Kon, one of the North Korean Navy’s new destroyers, standing near her father and top officials.今年，她出席了朝鲜海军新型驱逐舰“姜健”号的下水仪式，当时她跟父亲和高级将领站在一起。Mr. Kim’s Health金正恩的健康By preparing a successor publicly from an early age, Mr. Kim may be trying to avoid the mistake his father made, analysts say. It was not until after his father had a stroke in 2008 that Mr. Kim was unveiled as the heir apparent.分析人士指出，金正恩之所以从小公开培养继承人，可能是为了避免其父当年的失误。2008年金正日中风后，金正恩才被正式确立为继承人。That led to uncertainty about the younger Mr. Kim. In his early years, he faced skepticism from outside analysts who dismissed him as an inexperienced leader and argued that he would not last long.这导致外界对年轻的金正恩充满疑虑。在他上台之初，外部分析人士质疑他是个缺乏经验的领导人，并断言他撑不了多久。That was before Mr. Kim executed his uncle, had his half brother assassinated by his agents in Malaysia and purged several top generals to establish his unchallenged authority.在他处决了姑父、派特工在马来西亚暗杀同父异母的哥哥，并清洗多名高级将领以确立自己不容挑战的权威后，这种怀疑才逐渐消散。Now it is primarily Mr. Kim’s health, not his hold on power, that is in question. He is about 5 feet 7 inches and weighs about 310 pounds, according to South Korean intelligence officials. They added that he had unhealthy habits, including chain-smoking, heavy wining and dining, and frequently staying up into the early morning to surf the internet, where he likes to browse weapons sites.现在，受质疑的主要是金正恩的健康状况而非他对权力的掌控。根据韩国情报官员的说法，他身高约170厘米，体重140公斤左右。他们还说，他有很多不健康的习惯，包括烟不离手、暴饮暴食、彻夜上网，他尤其喜欢浏览武器网站。金正恩在多个场合吸烟。Mr. Kim is believed to have cardiovascular issues, which contributed to the deaths of both his father and grandfather.金正恩被认为患有心血管疾病，他的父亲和爷爷就是因为此病去世。One advantage to grooming a successor early, even a young child, is leverage against his American and South Korean adversaries, said Sung-Yoon Lee, the author of “The Sister: North Korea’s Kim Yo Jong, the Most Dangerous Woman in the World.”《妹妹：朝鲜的金与正，世界上最危险的女人》一书的作者李晟允表示，尽早培养接班人，即使是年幼的孩子，也有一个优势，那就是以此作为对抗美国和韩国的筹码。“It tells them: ‘We have all the time in the world, while you are bound by term limits of four to five years,’” Mr. Lee said.“这等于是告诉他们：‘我们有的是时间，而你们受限于四年或五年的任期，’”李晟允说。Jiawei Wang和Nailah Morgan对本文有报道贡献。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。获取更多RSS：https://feedx.net https://feedx.site