MICHAEL CROWLEY2025年8月13日2018年，美国总统特朗普在赫尔辛基与俄罗斯总统普京会面时，在克里姆林宫是否干预2016年美国大选的问题上站在了普京一边。 Doug Mills/The New York TimesStanding beside President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia in Finland’s presidential palace on a midsummer’s day seven years ago, President Trump proved that he still had the power to shock.七年前的一个仲夏，在芬兰总统府，特朗普总统站在俄罗斯总统普京身旁，再次展现出自己拥有惊世骇俗的能力。At a news conference after meeting privately with the Russian leader, Mr. Trump sided with Mr. Putin on whether the Kremlin had meddled in the 2016 U.S. presidential election.在与这位俄罗斯领导人闭门会晤后的新闻发布会上，当被问及克里姆林宫是否干预了2016年美国大选时，特朗普选择站在普京一边。“President Putin says it’s not Russia. I don’t see any reason why it would be,” Mr. Trump said, contradicting his own intelligence officials before recounting discredited conspiracy theories.“普京总统说不是俄罗斯干的。我看不出有任何理由质疑这一点，”特朗普说。他反驳了自家情报官员的说法，随后还重提了那些早已被证伪的阴谋论。Top Republicans were horrified. Senator John McCain called it a “disgraceful performance.” Mr. Trump’s own national security adviser at the time, John R. Bolton, would later write that “Putin had to be laughing uproariously at what he had gotten away with in Helsinki.”共和党高层对此感到震惊。参议员约翰·麦凯恩称这是“可耻的表演”。时任国家安全顾问的约翰·博尔顿后来写道：“普京肯定为自己在赫尔辛基全身而退而放声大笑。”Mr. Trump plans to see Mr. Putin on Friday in Alaska for the first time since his return to the White House to discuss the U.S. president’s goal of ending the war between Russia and Ukraine. With Mr. Putin pressing peace proposals that heavily favor Russia, many analysts and former Trump officials worry that he will once again turn a meeting with Mr. Trump to his advantage.特朗普计划于周五在阿拉斯加与普京会面，这是他重返白宫后两人首次会面，旨在讨论这位美国总统结束俄乌战争的目标。由于普京提出的和平方案明显偏向俄罗斯，许多分析人士和前特朗普政府官员担心，普京会再次利用与特朗普的会面让自己获利。During Mr. Trump’s first term, he and Mr. Putin met six times in person and had several more phone conversations. (His successor, Joseph R. Biden Jr., met Mr. Putin only once, in June 2021, before the Russian invasion of Ukraine.)特朗普在首个任期内与普京举行了六次会晤，还进行过多次电话交谈（他的继任者拜登仅在2021年6月与普京举行了一次会晤，那是在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰之前）。Those interactions alarmed many of Mr. Trump’s senior aides, who watched as the U.S. president disregarded their advice, excluded them from meetings with the Russian leader and proposed impractical ideas that appeared to have been planted by Mr. Putin, like creating a U.S.-Russia “impenetrable Cyber Security unit.” The idea was dropped as soon as Mr. Trump got back to Washington.这些互动让特朗普的许多高级幕僚感到担忧，他们看到美国总统屡屡无视他们的建议，将他们排除在与俄罗斯领导人的会面之外，还提出一些看似由普京灌输的不切实际的想法，比如建立一个美俄联合的“坚不可摧的网络安全部队”。特朗普一回到华盛顿，这个想法就被放弃了。The relationship has grown more complicated in Mr. Trump’s second term. In recent months Mr. Trump, eager to fulfill his promises of settling the war between Russia and Ukraine, has grown irritated by Mr. Putin’s unwillingness to de-escalate the conflict.在特朗普的第二任期内，两国关系变得更加复杂。近几个月来，特朗普急于兑现结束俄乌战争的承诺，对普京不愿缓和冲突的态度越来越恼火。Mr. Putin will land in Alaska determined to rewind Mr. Trump’s view of the war to February, when he berated President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine at a contentious White House meeting for not showing more gratitude for U.S. support, while speaking warmly about Mr. Putin.普京抵达阿拉斯加时，定会想方设法让特朗普对这场战争的看法回到2月——当时特朗普在白宫一场充满争议的会面中斥责乌克兰总统泽连斯基，称其对美国的支持不知感恩，与此同时，特朗普却对普京表示出友好态度。今年2月，特朗普在白宫斥责乌克兰总统泽连斯基，但此后他对俄罗斯也越来越恼火。 Doug Mills/The New York Times“Since the blowup between Trump and Zelensky in the Oval Office, Europeans, Ukrainians and Ukraine’s supporters inside the administration have cobbled together a policy of helping Ukraine stay in the fight and preventing the lurch by Trump to embrace Russia’s view of the conflict,” said Andrew Weiss, the vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.“自从特朗普和泽连斯基在椭圆形办公室爆发争执后，欧洲人、乌克兰人以及美国政府内部支持乌克兰的人士匆忙拿出了一项政策，一方面帮助乌克兰继续战斗，同时也防止特朗普突然倒向俄罗斯对该冲突的立场，”卡内基国际和平基金会负责研究的副总裁安德鲁·魏斯说。“The real test on Friday will be how much of that policy survives the first in-person contact between Trump and Putin in his second term,” Mr. Weiss added.魏斯还表示：“周五真正的考验在于，在特朗普的第二个任期里与普京的首次直接会晤中，这项政策还能保留下来多少。”The White House portrays the meeting as an example of Mr. Trump’s dedication to stopping the bloodshed in Ukraine and defends his unconventional style as a needed break from slow-moving diplomatic customs.白宫将此次会面描述为特朗普致力于制止乌克兰流血冲突的例证，并为他不按常理出牌的行事风格辩护，称这是打破拖沓外交惯例的必要之举。But critics worry that the hastily planned conversation will play into the hands of Mr. Putin, a former K.G.B. agent known as a master manipulator.但批评者担心，这场仓促安排的对话会对普京有利——这位前克格勃特工以擅长操控而闻名。“I think he believes he should reel Trump back in, and believes his K.G.B. skills will do that,” Mr. Bolton said in an interview with NewsNation last week.“我认为他觉得自己应该把特朗普重新拉拢过来，而且相信自己的克格勃技能足以做到这一点，”博尔顿上周接受新闻频道——新闻国家采访时说。The Russian leader may also benefit from the fact that Mr. Trump, in contrast to his first term, has few advisers pushing back against Mr. Putin’s worldview. For his trip to Helsinki, for instance, Mr. Trump was surrounded by such Russia hawks as Mr. Bolton, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Defense Secretary Jim Mattis.俄罗斯领导人可能还会受益于一个事实：与第一任期不同，如今特朗普身边几乎没有什么顾问会对普京的世界观提出反对。例如，在特朗普前往赫尔辛基参加会面时，他身边都是博尔顿、国务卿庞皮欧和国防部长吉姆·马蒂斯这样的对俄强硬派。Today, Secretary of State Marco Rubio is the lone member of Mr. Trump’s inner circle with a clear record of criticizing Mr. Putin. But even Mr. Rubio, who also serves as Mr. Trump’s national security adviser, has softened his tone since joining Mr. Trump’s cabinet.如今，国务卿鲁比奥是特朗普核心圈子里唯一曾明确批评普京的人。但即便是鲁比奥，在加入特朗普内阁、兼任国家安全顾问之后，语气也有所软化。The Alaska meeting was set after Mr. Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, met with Mr. Putin in Moscow last week. Mr. Witkoff, a friend of Mr. Trump and a fellow real estate mogul, had no diplomatic experience before joining government. He has been criticized for meeting with Mr. Putin without other U.S. officials and for echoing his talking points afterward.阿拉斯加会面是在特朗普的特使史蒂夫·维特科夫上周在莫斯科与普京会面后敲定的。维特科夫是特朗普的朋友，也是一位房地产大亨，在进入政府前没有任何外交经验。他因在没有其他美国官员陪同的情况下与普京会面，且在会面后附和普京的论调而受到批评。Analysts said they have low expectations for the sort of breakthrough on Ukraine that Mr. Trump is hoping to achieve in Alaska. Mr. Putin has shown every sign that he believes he can gain more on the battlefield than in negotiations — at least on the terms Mr. Trump has so far required.对于特朗普期望在阿拉斯加实现乌克兰问题取得突破性进展，分析人士普遍不看好。种种迹象表明，普京坚信在战场上能比在谈判桌上能获取更多利益——至少是按照特朗普目前要求的条件。上个月俄罗斯在乌克兰哈尔科夫发动袭击后的场景。白宫将特朗普与普京的会晤描述为他致力于制止乌克兰流血冲突的例证。Maria Snegovaya, a senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, noted that in his first term Mr. Trump tried to strike major deals with the authoritarian leaders of such nations as China and North Korea, with limited results.战略与国际研究中心俄罗斯和欧亚大陆问题高级研究员玛丽亚·斯涅戈瓦娅指出，特朗普第一任期内曾试图与中国、朝鲜等国的威权领导人达成重大协议，但收效甚微。“In general, Trump’s history of meetings with strong men from Xi Jinping to Kim Jong-un does not lead to a successful deal that follows,” she said.“总的来说，从习近平到金正恩，特朗普与这些强权人物的会晤经历并没有带来后续的成功交易，”她说。Fiona Hill, who was senior director for Europe and Russia on the National Security Council in the first Trump White House, agreed that any breakthrough appeared unlikely.曾在特朗普第一任期内担任国家安全委员会欧洲和俄罗斯事务高级主任的菲奥娜·希尔也认为，取得任何突破的可能性都不大。Mr. Putin and his aides have been frustrated at a lack of diplomatic progress with the Trump administration, and Ms. Hill said she sees little fresh ground for a deal, even one favorable to Mr. Putin.普京及其助手一直对与特朗普政府的外交进展不大感到失望，希尔表示，她看不到达成协议的新基础，即使是对普京有利的协议。The Russians “always want something they can take to the bank, an agreement they can hold the U.S. to,” she said. “They were excited by Witkoff at first, since he’s a direct channel to Trump, but they’re frustrated there’s no structure around it.”她说，俄罗斯人“总是想要一些能实实在在拿到手的东西，一份能让美国遵守的协议。他们起初对维特科夫很感兴趣，因为他是与特朗普直接沟通的渠道，但他们对缺乏相关机制感到失望”。While Mr. Putin might welcome a leader-to-leader meeting, she said, “he wants the details to be worked out later. And Trump isn’t a details guy.”她还说，虽然普京可能会欢迎领导人之间的会晤，“但他希望具体细节后续再敲定。而特朗普不是一个注重细节的人。”黄安伟(Edward Wong)和David E. Sanger对本文有报道贡献。Michael Crowley为《纽约时报》报道国务院和美国外交政策。他曾在30多个国家进行报道，经常与国务卿一起出访。翻译：晋其角点击查看本文英文版。