SUPPORT ETHIOPIA INSIGHT .wpedon-container .wpedon-select, .wpedon-container .wpedon-input { width: 200px; min-width: 200px; max-width: 200px; } True sovereignty demands reform, not resentment—and patience, not panicThe recent exchange between Abrar Fitwi and Mulugeta Gebregziabher—initiated by Abrar’s piece and followed by Mulugeta’s rebuttal—has resonated with many of us who hold Tigray’s legacy dear. At the heart of their dialogue lies a crucial question: must democracy precede secession?Mulugeta argues that nationhood lays the foundation for democracy. But this perspective risks underestimating the fragility of Tigray’s present condition. In moments of upheaval, sequence matters. And history alone cannot substitute for the difficult, often painstaking work of rebuilding trust, institutions, and consensus.Tigray occupies a central position in the historical formation of Ethiopia, having played a formative role in the state’s earliest development. From the ancient Kingdom of Aksum, which shaped both Ethiopia’s Orthodox tradition and the early history of Islam through the first Hijra, to its central role in modern national identity, the region’s imprint is foundational. To sever ties hastily would be to walk away from a legacy that is as much Tigray’s as it is Ethiopia’s.Yet, the demand for self-determination is not unwarranted. Tigray’s people have endured war, displacement, and marginalization. The pursuit of genuine liberation is not achieved through abrupt, reactionary separation; it requires a deliberate progression toward justice, healing, and democratic renewal. Secession undertaken hastily, without a democratic mandate or the requisite civic institutions, cannot be regarded as an authentic realization of freedom.Fragile RebuildingThe 2020–22 war shattered Tigray. Infrastructure was obliterated. Families torn apart. The very social fabric frayed. The current reality is that of a post-conflict society struggling for stability, rather than a fully formed nation-state prepared for autonomous emergenceCalls for immediate independence, however understandable, must confront this reality. As Abrar cautions, independence without civil liberties is like “starting a new nation in a prison.” Eritrea and South Sudan offer sobering examples: nations born of struggle but scarred by authoritarian relapse, instability, and betrayal of their founding hopes.Tigray risks becoming another cautionary tale if its leaders and elites mistake emotional momentum for institutional readiness. True sovereignty cannot be built atop rubble, nor can it be willed into existence by hashtags and hardliners.Mulugeta’s retort that “nationhood is the foundation for democracy, not its reward” may resonate in theory. But theory does not govern post-war societies. Practice does. And the practice of democratic institution-building is exactly what Tigray needs now—before any declarations of statehood.Tigray is plagued by internal rivalries and deep societal wounds. These matters are not peripheral concerns to be deferred until after the attainment of independence; they are foundational questions that require immediate and thorough deliberation. No movement for national liberation can endure if it cannot even agree on who represents it, or whose voice truly matters.To borrow from political scientist Michael Keating: “Secession is not just the right to leave—it is the responsibility to govern.” Without a credible democratic framework, any push for independence will ring hollow. Worse, it could entrench new forms of oppression under the guise of national pride.Dangerous AlliancesThe geopolitical landscape is unforgiving. The Ethiopia-Eritrea border remains volatile. Reports of new alignments between the TPLF and Eritrea—its former adversary—signal desperation, not strategy. Such alliances may promise tactical leverage, but they come at a profound cost: legitimacy, stability, and long-term peace.A miscalculated tilt toward Asmara risks reigniting old wars, turning Tigray into a battleground once again—this time in a proxy conflict between regional powers. Egypt’s friction with Ethiopia over the GERD adds yet another layer of complexity. The Horn is no place for reckless posturing.Meanwhile, internal divisions persist. The Pretoria Agreement is fraying. Parts of Tigray remain under the control of external armed actors. These unresolved issues render any unilateral declaration of independence both imprudent and unsustainable. The international community, ever cautious, will not embrace a fragile, contested new state in a region already drowning in instability.The experience of post-conflict societies elsewhere underscores this point. The case of Bosnia and Herzegovina, for instance, shows how rushing to political partition without first establishing a unified, multi-ethnic democratic framework can entrench political deadlock and instability. Through the Dayton Agreement, the international community prioritized a complex institutional structure to foster consensus, recognizing that lasting peace depends on shared governance.Tigray must do the same. Build first. Decide later. Democracy should not be construed as an externally imposed Western model; rather, it functions as a critical mechanism for survival and cohesion in societies marked by deep internal divisions. No flag, no anthem, no formal boundary can substitute for the trust of the people. That must be earned, not assumed.Strategic RenewalThe path ahead for Tigray requires three pillars: healing, reform, and diplomacy.The region must first address the enduring psychological and social consequences of conflict. Trauma manifests within familial relations, collective memory, and patterns of mistrust. A sustainable political future requires its recognition and redress through mechanisms of truth-telling, justice, and reconciliation.Second, inclusive governance must become the cornerstone of regional life. This means rebuilding institutions, holding free and fair elections, and empowering a new generation through education and economic opportunity. The silence of the moderate majority must be broken, and civic voices must be protected from intimidation and manipulation.Third, engagement with the federal government must be strategic, not submissive. Tigray must assert its interests, but without the fatalism or fury that now fuels extremist rhetoric. Diplomacy, not defiance, will pave the road to lasting autonomy—whether within Ethiopia or beyond it.The federal government has a role to play. More than that, it carries a moral and constitutional obligation. It must move beyond ceasefires and symbolism. What is needed now is tangible reconstruction, clear resolution of territorial questions, and a sincere commitment to reconciliation that replaces mistrust with trust.The international community, too, must remain present. Continued engagement is essential, not only to prevent a return to war but to help nurture democratic growth. Conditional aid, diplomatic pressure, and civil society support remain crucial.Most importantly, external actors must pay attention to the full range of Tigrayan voices, not just the loudest ones echoing through social media.Not YetTigray’s right to self-determination must never be dismissed. But neither should it be misused by political entrepreneurs and wounded factions seeking premature escape from a painful present. Independence, if it comes, must emerge from deliberate strategy, democratic will, and internal strength. It cannot be the result of rage or despair.The alternative is not surrender but the slow, deliberate work of building: institutions, trust, and a future that honors the region’s history without being bound by it. That future demands patience, discipline, and vision.Tigray is not simply a casualty of recent wars. It holds a legacy that still resonates, not just in Ethiopia, but across the Horn of Africa. Slogans won’t protect that legacy. Wisdom will. So will time. .wpedon-container .wpedon-select, .wpedon-container .wpedon-input { width: 200px; min-width: 200px; max-width: 200px; } Query or correction? Email us window.addEventListener("sfsi_functions_loaded", function(){if (typeof sfsi_widget_set == "function") {sfsi_widget_set();}}); While this commentary contains the author’s opinions, Ethiopia Insight will correct factual errors.Main photo: Eritrean soldiers observe a moment of silence for fallen comrades in Axum, Tigray — November 2022. Source: Hidmona TV.Published under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International licence. You may not use the material for commercial purposes.The post Ethiopia’s Tigray Must Rebuild Before It Considers Breaking Away appeared first on Ethiopia Insight.