Traders go all in on a Fed rate cut for September

Wait 5 sec.

The US CPI report yesterday came in more or less within expectations, with the details not really reflecting material evidence of an acceleration in tariffs passthrough on inflation. As things stand, there is some evidence that tariffs are impacting prices. However, that impact is not as significant as expected even three months after Trump's initial reciprocal tariffs hit.With that, traders have gone to almost fully price in a 25 bps rate cut for next month. Fed funds futures now show ~98% odds of a rate cut priced in. That is up slightly from ~89% before the inflation data. As for the year itself, traders are pricing in ~60 bps of rate cuts now and that's also just a marginal step up from ~57 bps before that.In terms of Fed pricing, that is just a mild augmentation. But if anything, traders were already betting big on a rate cut after the dismal US jobs report and this pretty much allows them to go all in on that for September.So, what's next from here?One thing to be wary about is that there is a growing disconnect between Fed policymakers on their respective views.Kansas City Fed president Schmid - a voting member this year - was out quickly to say that he will dissent to a September rate cut even with these inflation numbers. Meanwhile, Richmond Fed president Barkin - not a voting member this year - was rather neutral in saying that the balance between inflation and unemployment is rather unclear currently.However, one cannot deny that the politicisation of the Fed is growing ever stronger by the day. We've already seen Bowman and Waller cave in and yesterday we saw Fed governor nominee Miran chime in to say that "there is no evidence of tariffs inflation" whatsoever in the data. Of course, Miran is planted by Trump so you can expect that sort of bias in his remarks.As markets look to push the Fed's buttons, the question now is will policymakers push back? Or is it going to be another case where the Fed just gets bullied into a decision yet again as political pressures also weigh in?As a reminder, the Fed will meet next to decide on monetary policy on 17 September. In the run up to that, we'll have the Jackson Hole symposium on 23-24 August, the next labour market report on 6 September, and the next CPI report on 11 September. The FOMC blackout period will begin on 7 September.So if the Fed is to try and push back or reaffirm market expectations, the latest they can do that is right after the non-farm payrolls data and just before the weekend hits that particular Friday.We will still get another round of inflation numbers as penciled in above, but the Fed won't be able to dictate how markets will react to it this time around.As we approach the fall though, UBS and Goldman Sachs have made calls expecting to see an acceleration in price pressures in the months ahead. So if that starts to show up more significantly in the August report, it will make the September decision rather tricky especially if we don't hear more firm opinions from Fed policymakers over the coming weeks. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.