JPMorgan warns tariffs could shave GDP, lift inflation to post-war highs in scaleJP Morgan says US tariffs are likely to deliver a meaningful hit to both economic growth and inflation, as Wall Street economists brace for the bulk of the impact to filter through over coming months.“Tariffs could subtract 1% from GDP and add 1–1.5% to inflation, some of which has already occurred,” said Michael Feroli, chief US economist at JPMorgan. He cautioned that this year’s tariff increases are “well larger than anything in the post-war US experience,” leaving considerable uncertainty over how much of the higher costs will be passed on to consumers.JPMorgan expects the GDP impact to come mainly via weaker consumption, which accounts for about two-thirds of US output, and estimates the drag will be “a bit under 1%” in the second half of the year. The bank’s warning comes as other forecasters note that pre-tariff inventories are now running down, effective tariff rates have climbed to around 18% from 3% at the start of the year, and companies are showing less willingness to absorb higher costs.While inflation is not expected to surge out of control, most economists see monthly core price gains in the 0.3%–0.5% range, enough to push the Fed’s preferred gauge into the low- to mid-3% area. JPMorgan’s call comes alongside broader market worries over the Aug. 29 expiry of de minimis tariff exceptions for imports under $800, a change that could push up prices for retail goods in particular.--- This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.