USDCHF Technical Analysis – All eyes on the US CPI data

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FundamentalOverviewThe USD has been weakalmost across the board since the NFP report as the softer than expected datatriggered a quick dovish repricing and a change in stance for many Fed members.The market is pricing 57bps of easing by year-end compared to just 35 bps before the NFP release. It’shighly likely that more benign data will see Fed Chair Powell opening the doorfor a cut in September at the Jackson Hole Symposium. The focus now turned to theUS CPI report. We saw some dollar strength yesterday which could have beenhedging activity into the risk event. The recent Fedspeak suggests that a ratecut in September might be unavoidable, so we might need very hot inflation datato change their mind (and of course a good NFP report in September).On the CHF side, we haven’tgot anything new in terms of monetary policy as the SNB is now in a long pause.The latest Swiss CPI showed a slight improvement in inflation although it’s notimportant as the central bank will not hike rates for a long time. The marketdoesn’t expect the SNB to cut anymore. There’s some focus at themoment on the 39% tariffs that the US slapped on Switzerland. That is likely tobe resolved in the near future with the rate being set between 10-20% as we’veseen for most other countries. USDCHFTechnical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we cansee that USDCHF is trading above the key support zone around the 0.8050 level and the major trendline. The buyers will likely continue tostep in around the support with a defined risk below it to keep targeting the0.84 handle next. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lowerto increase the bearish bets into new cycle lows. USDCHF TechnicalAnalysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we cansee that we have a minor upward trendline defining the bullish structure on thistimeframe. The trendline is near the support zone, so that area is going to bekey for traders. Buyers will look for a bounce, while the sellers will look fora break. USDCHF TechnicalAnalysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we cansee that we have a minor support zone around the 0.8090 level. This is where wecan expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the zone to positionfor a rally into the 0.84 handle. The sellers, on the other hand, will look fora break lower to extend the pullback into the trendline. The red lines define theaverage daily range for today. It’s worth noting that wehave the US CPI report today so the technicals might not mean much and it wouldbe better to trade after the release.UpcomingCatalystsToday we have the US CPI report. OnThursday, we get the US PPI and the US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, weconclude the week with the US Retail Sales and the University of MichiganConsumer Sentiment report. Focus also on Fedspeak, especially after the US CPIdata. Visit investingLive.com (formerly ForexLive.com) for real-time news coverage and more technical analysis articles This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.