Aug. 12, 2025 7:30 AM ETWall Street Breakfast5.74M FollowersListen on the go! A daily podcast of Wall Street Breakfast will be available by 8:00 a.m. on Seeking Alpha, iTunes, Spotify.Getty ImagesCPI checkThe Bureau of Labor Statistics will release a fresh batch of inflation data this morning with the July Consumer Price Index. The Trump administration's tariffs are expected to seep more into July's data after effects began to show in June. But concerns over data credibility loom large.What to expect: Economists on average expect headline CPI to rise 0.2% M/M in July (vs. +0.3% in June), and a 0.3% M/M increase in core CPI (vs. +0.2% in June). July CPI is expected to rise 2.8% Y/Y, accelerating from 2.7% in June, and core CPI is expected to climb 3.0% Y/Y, up from 2.9% in June. Investing Group Leader Chris Lau said while tariff risks remain high, headline inflation should be contained by moderating shelter costs and declining vehicle prices. SA analyst Damir Tokic sees a distinct possibility that evidence of stagflation will show up in the report.Tariff watch: With the U.S. striking deals with close trading partners, importers basically saw where the floor will be on tariffs, according to Matt Colyar, economist at Moody's Analytics. Those deals signaled that "there was not going to be much better deals or better terms or more business-friendly terms than that," Colyar told Seeking Alpha. For now, the full effect of tariffs on inflation isn't likely to be felt until mid-2026. Colyar describes the near-term inflation path as "a reversal of where we were, but not 9% like in 2022, and certainly not runaway inflation."Data reliability: The CPI report comes as the BLS is facing concerns over the quality of its data collection as budget and staffing cuts have led to fewer price points being measured. In addition, President Donald Trump fired the agency's head after claiming that recent nonfarm payroll counts were rigged to make him look bad. Trump has since named an outspoken BLS critic to lead the agency. Morgan Stanley's Michael Gapen said the firing "has raised questions about whether and by how much the quality of official data produced by U.S. government agencies could be compromised."Here's the latest Seeking Alpha analysisWhy We Just Bought 1000 More Shares Of Energy TransferNovo Nordisk: This Won't LastAMD Is The Company To Buy In The AI SpaceTesla: 5 Reasons To SellMy Top 10 High-Yield Dividend Stocks For August 2025: One Yields 11%-PlusWhat else is happening...WSB survey results: Mixed views on tangible shopping.Trump extends China tariff pause, 'gold won't be tariffed.'China urges firms not to use Nvidia's (NVDA) H20 chips.Trump praises Intel CEO days after calling for his exit.Musk threatens to sue Apple over alleged OpenAI bias.Why no more Dojo could be positive for Tesla (TSLA).Albemarle (ALB) replaces COO as part of restructuring.ZIM Integrated (ZIM) CEO to lead effort to go private.Debt woes: Kodak (KODK) raises going concern doubt.Bain Capital said to weigh Bob's Discount Furniture IPO.Today's MarketsIn Asia, Japan +2.2%. Hong Kong +0.3%. China +0.5%. India -0.5%.In Europe, at midday, London +0.1%. Paris +0.2%. Frankfurt -0.4%.Futures at 6:30, Dow +0.1%. S&P flat. Nasdaq flat. Crude +0.2% to $64.10. Gold -0.3% to $3,396. Bitcoin -2.2% to $118,548.Ten-year Treasury Yield unchanged at 4.29%.On The CalendarCompanies reporting today include Sea Limited (SE) and CoreWeave (CRWV).See the full earnings calendar on Seeking Alpha, as well as today's economic calendar.This article was written byWall Street Breakfast5.74M FollowersWall Street Breakfast, Seeking Alpha's flagship daily business newsletter, is a one-page summary that gives you a rapid overview of the day's key financial news. It is designed for easy readability on the site or by email (including mobile devices) and is published before 7:30 AM ET every market day. Wall Street Breakfast's readership of more than 1 million subscribers includes many from the investment banking and fund management industries. Sign up here to receive the Wall Street Breakfast in your inbox every business day.CommentsRecommended For You