PG Approaching Oversold Discount Zone Ahead of Q4 Earnings BTFD?Procter & Gamble Company (The)BATS:PGWavervanir_International_LLC📝 Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) is trading at $153.73 (-10.8% YTD), lagging the S&P 500’s +6.5% YTD gain. Despite recent weakness, a confluence of technical support, dividend resilience, and a looming catalyst could signal a tactical entry. Let’s break it down: 🔍 Fundamentals & Catalysts Q4 Earnings Webcast (July 29): P&G will webcast Q4 results at 8:30 AM ET, with focus on organic sales growth (guided at +2% FY25) and margin trajectory 14. EPS Expectations: Q4 consensus at $1.43 (+2.1% YoY); FY25 core EPS guided at $6.72–6.82 (2–4% growth) 410. Dividend Fortress: Quarterly payout raised to $1.0568/share (ex-div: July 18), marking 69 consecutive years of increases and a 2.75% yield 612. Payout ratio at 67% of earnings – sustainable for a consumer staple 6. Cost Pressures & Mitigation: Tariff Headwinds: $1B–$1.5B annual cost hit from U.S.-China tariffs 410. Offsets: $2.4B dividend payouts + $1.4B buybacks in Q3; 280bps gross productivity savings 10. 🌍 Macro & Risk Factors Consumer Softness: Q3 net sales fell -2% YoY; volume declines in Baby Care (-2%) and Fabric & Home Care (-1%) segments 10. Pricing Power: Average +1% pricing in Q3 (led by Grooming/Health Care), though mix/elasticity risks persist 104. Structural Shifts: Portfolio pruning (minor brand exits) and job cuts to offset tariff impacts 4. 📉 Technical Setup: Oversold with Base-Building Potential RSI 31.5 (Neutral but nearing oversold) 511. Price vs. MAs: Below all key MAs (20-day: $159.17, 50-day: $161.59, 200-day: $165.56) – signaling bearish momentum but extreme discounts 5811. Support Zone: $152–153 aligns with 52-week lows ($151.90) and the 2025 dividend-capture floor 212. MACD -1.57: Suggests potential reversal if momentum shifts 5. Technical Indicators Summary: IndicatorValueSignal RSI (14)31.45Neutral MACD (12,26)-1.57Buy Price vs. 200D SMA-7.1%Sell Bollinger Bands (25)$157–161.94Sell 🎯 Probabilistic Price Targets ScenarioTargetProbabilityRationale Bounce to 20D MA$158–16060%Mean reversion + dividend ex-date support Reversion to 50D MA$162–16445%Technical confluence + tariff resolution hopes Rally to 200D MA + ATH$17425%Bull case: Macro stabilization + guidance upgrade 📌 Trade Strategy Entry: $152–154 (aligns with structural support) 28. Stop Loss: $149.50 (1–2% below July 16 low of $152.27) 2. Targets: Scale out at $160 → $164 → $174. Catalysts: Q4 earnings (July 29) + clarity on tariff mitigation 14. Position Size: Allocate 3–5% of portfolio; pair with long-volatility hedge. ⚠️ Key Risks Guidance Miss: Sluggish volumes or tariff escalation could pressure FY26 EPS projections. Technical Breakdown: Close below $151.90 invalidates support, inviting a slide to $145. Macro Sensitivity: Consumer staples underperformance if inflation rebounds. 💎 Final Take PG offers a rare combo: defensive yield (2.75%) + oversold technicals + imminent catalyst. While tariffs and consumer weakness justify caution, the $152–154 zone is a high-probability dip-buying opportunity. Earnings day vol could amplify moves – enter pre-event with tight stops. #PG #ConsumerStaples #DividendKing #EarningsPlay #Tariffs Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Conduct your own due diligence.