Federal Reserve speakers Thursday include Kugler, Daly, Cook, WallerGoldman Sachs maintains a Neutral rating on Tesla with a $285 price targetJapan Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Aoki: Concerned about speculative FX market movementsBlackRock’s Rieder: Tariffs yet to bite as US inflation holds steady - sees September cutAUD/USD lower after the jump in Australia's unemployment ensures an RBA August rate cutAustralia June Unemployment Rate 4.3% (expected 4.1%, prior 4.1%)PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1461 (vs. estimate at 7.1703)Japan's Akazawa and US' Lutnick held multiple phone callsSingapore’s exports surge in June, beating expectations amid global trade risksFed’s Williams defends central bank independence, declines to address Trump criticismCanada's Couche-Tard drops $47 billion bid for Japan's Seven & I over lack of cooperationTrump officials holding up efforts to finalize agreement allowing UAE to buy Nvidia chipsJapan June trade data: Exports -0.5% y/y (vs. expected +0.5%)Fed's Williams says 0.75% is a reasonable estimate of R-star (neutral interest rate)UBS crank up their EUR/USD forecasts, as high as 1.23Trump says it will disrupt market if he removes Fed Chair PowellMore from Fed's Williams - blames tariffs for high inflation running above targetNew Zealand Food Price Index for June 2025 +1.2% (prior +0.5%)NY Fed Williams says current moderstly restrictive monetary policy is appropriateTrump says we could make a deal possibly with EuropeJPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says Federal Reserve’s independence is “absolutely critical”Deutsche Bank warns of potential market turbulence around August 1 - 3 key flashpointsGoldman Sachs CEO Solomon said Federal Reserve independence “super important”Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 16 Jul:The near firing/unfiring of Powell unsettle marketsUS tsunami alert issuedJPMorgan raise concerns about Trump political interference at the Federal ReserveMajor US stock indices settle the day higherTrade ideas thread - Thursday, 17 July, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideasNews flow was limited, but a few key speakers and data points stood out.Trump, speaking in a Wednesday afternoon U.S. interview, said:The U.S. is “very close” to a trade deal with India.A deal with Europe is possible, but “too soon to say” on Canada.He would “probably” impose a blanket 10–15% tariff on smaller countries.New York Fed President John Williams noted:This year’s Trump tariffs have started to push inflation higher, with more impact likely in the months ahead.Williams is hesitant to support a rate cut at the Fed’s upcoming meeting, citing tariff-driven inflation risks.“For items more exposed to higher tariffs, price increases so far this year have been well above what one would expect based on past trends.”“Maintaining this modestly restrictive stance of monetary policy is entirely appropriate to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals.”Data was also light but noteworthy:Japan’s exports fell for a second consecutive month, with U.S. tariffs continuing to weigh on trade.Australia’s jobs report badly missed forecasts:Employment rose by just 2,000 in June (vs. 20,000 expected).The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% (vs. 4.1% expected), the highest since late 2021.Markets quickly firmed up pricing for a widely expected RBA rate cut at the August meeting.FX highlights:USD/JPY surged to around 148.50. Japan’s Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Aoki voiced concern over speculative FX moves, but the yen barely rose off session lows. Indeed, USD/JPY is making a new session high around 148.60 as I update. Tariff and election uncertainty continues to pressure JPY.AUD/USD fell on the weak jobs data.---USD/JPY: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.