2025-07-16 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqMicro E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index FuturesCME_MINI:MNQ1!priceactiontdscomment: Bond markets are going ballistic. Fun times ahead. Technically it’s a trading range under ath and bears are too weak to print any decent bear bar on the daily tf. current market cycle: bull trend key levels: 22600 - 23300 bull case: Bulls are might fine. No daily bar is closing on it’s low and we are printing bull bar after bull bar. Daily 20ema is around 22700 and as long as we stay above, bulls remain in full control. Not event imminent firing of JPow and the bond market implosion are stopping this. Truly astonishing. Invalidation is below 22700. bear case: Bears are pathetic. Need lower lows below 22770. That’s it. Even if we get them, daily 20ema should be support unless an event triggers big time. Invalidation is above 23300. short term: Neutral. Bears barely doing anything but I have no interest in buying this frenzy, given the risks we are facing. We will go down hard soon but right now nothing about this is bearish. I do think the only bearish scenario could be that Jpow resigns/gets fired tomorrow/Friday and we drop down hard to next big support around 22000. I’d be surprised if we could get that low tbh. medium-long term - Update from 2024-06-29: No change in plans. I expect 20000 to get hit over the next 3 months and maybe 19000 again. trade of the day: Short US open was my preferred trade today but stop had to be 23223, so far away and target was not all that big since 23000 was the obvious support. The drop down to 22835 was a bit much but given the news, it could have easily led to a much bigger sell-off if the markets weren’t ignoring literally every risk under the sun.