Trump v Powell: Round 6AUD/JPYOANDA:AUDJPYjohnelfedforexblogA day that looked like it was drifting into a 'summer lull' kind of day, suddenly had bouts of volatility when the TRUMP / POWELL SAGA re-emerged. Which is making it difficult to hold an opinion at the moment. If the president wins the battle and the FED cut rates more than expected, the USD (should) weaken. If Mr Powell (and the FED board) remain steadfast and keep the wait and see narrative, the USD (should) remain bouyed. Yesterday's AUD JPY trade stopped out when the market ultimately decided the data didn't move the dial for potential rate cuts. It turned out that 'USD JPY long' would have been the optimal trade. And that's the risk you take when placing a trade 'post data' but 'pre US open'. Of course, the risk to waiting for the US open is that the opportunity could have passed. It's a conundrum I don't think will ever have a clear answer. Ultimately, I don't regret yesterday's trade given the information I had at that moment. Inflation remains 'sticky' in the UK and a lot of emphasis is being put on Thursday's employment data. A 'soft' number will put the BOE in a bind of needing rate cuts to stimulate the economy, but unable to cut due to high inflation. We also have upcoming AUD employment data, an improvement on last month is forecast, which should see the RBA remain hawkish. And I continue to hold my view that 'fundamentally' AUD JPY long is a good trade. It's just a case of waiting for the right moment. I have read that this week's JPY strength could be attributed to profit taking following recent weakness and ahead of elections in Japan this coming weekend. Currently, it's a case of staying patient, maintaing a narrative. And trade when you feel like momentum backs up bias. If you only feel comfortable with a 1.2:1 risk reward, I would suggest that could be wise for the time being. Tricky times, please feel free offervthoughtd or questions: