JEANNA SMIALEK2025年7月14日德国茨维考的一家大众汽车工厂。特朗普总统的关税政策促使欧盟领导人寻找其他可靠的贸易伙伴。 Ingmar Nolting for The New York TimesTrade chaos is forcing America’s allies closer together, and further from the United States. And as that happens, the European Union is trying to position itself at the center of a new global trade map.贸易混乱正迫使美国的盟友们更加紧密地走到一起，并越来越远离美国。与此同时，欧盟正试图将自己定位为新全球贸易格局的中心。The bloc learned this weekend that Washington would subject it to 30 percent tariffs starting Aug. 1. Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the E.U. executive branch, responded with a pledge to keep negotiating. She also made it clear that, while the European Union would delay any retaliation until early August, it would continue to draw up plans to hit back with force.上周末，欧盟得知从8月1日起，美国将对其征收30%的关税。欧盟执行机构主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩对此回应称，欧盟将继续致力于谈判。同时她也明确表示，尽管欧盟会将任何报复行动推迟到8月初，但仍将继续制定强有力的反制计划。But that was not the entire strategy. Europe, like many of the United States’ trading partners, is also looking for more reliable friends.但这并不是战略的全部。像美国的许多贸易伙伴一样，欧洲也在寻找更加可靠的朋友。“We’re living in turbulent times, and when economic uncertainty meets geopolitical volatility, partners like us must come closer together,” Ms. von der Leyen said on Sunday in Brussels at a news conference alongside the Indonesian president, Prabowo Subianto.冯德莱恩周日在布鲁塞尔与印尼总统普拉博沃·苏比安托共同出席新闻发布会时表示：“我们正处于动荡时期，当经济不确定性与地缘政治动荡交织时，我们这样的伙伴必须更加紧密地团结在一起。”Just as President Trump threatens to put hefty tariffs on many countries, including Indonesia, the European Union is working to relax trade barriers and deepen economic relations.特朗普总统威胁要对包括印尼在内的多个国家征收高额关税之际，欧盟在努力放宽贸易壁垒并加深经济关系。“In hard times, some turn inward, toward isolation and fragmentation,” Ms. von der Leyen said. Then, in a message implicitly extended to world leaders who have been jolted by Mr. Trump’s tariffs, she added, “You are always welcome here, and you can count on Europe.”“在困难时期，有些国家会转向内向、孤立和分裂，”冯德莱恩表示。随后，她向那些因特朗普的关税政策而感到震惊的世界领导人含蓄地表示：“这里永远欢迎你们，你们可以信赖欧洲。”It is a split screen that is becoming typical. On one side, the United States sows uncertainty as it blows up weeks of painstaking negotiations and escalates tariff threats. On the other, the 27-nation European Union and other American trading partners are forging closer ties, laying the groundwork for a global trading system that revolves less and less around an increasingly fickle United States.这种分裂的画面正变得越来越典型：一方面，美国推翻数周艰苦谈判的成果，不断升级关税威胁，制造不确定性；另一方面，由27个国家组成的欧盟以及其他美国的贸易伙伴则在加强彼此联系，为一个越来越不围绕日益反复无常的美国的全球贸易体系奠定基础。“We in Southeast Asia, especially Indonesia, we really consider Europe to be very, very important in providing global stability,” Mr. Prabowo said on Sunday.印尼总统普拉博沃在周日表示：“我们东南亚国家，尤其是印尼，确实认为欧洲在维护全球稳定方面非常、非常重要。”It will be hard to move away from the United States, and Mr. Prabowo predicted that America would always be a world leader. It is home to the world’s largest economy, a bustling consumer market and cutting-edge technologies and services.要摆脱对美国的依赖并不容易，普拉博沃预测美国将始终是世界的领导者。美国拥有全球最大的经济体、繁荣的消费市场以及尖端的技术与服务。But many American trading partners feel that they are left with little choice but to diversify. And while trade relationships are difficult to alter, they are also difficult to change back once they have been totally reorganized.但许多美国的贸易伙伴感觉别无选择，只能寻求多元化。虽然贸易关系难以改变，但一旦彻底重组后，也很难再恢复原状。That is what is happening right now.这就是正在发生的状况。7月14日，特朗普总统和第一夫人梅拉尼娅于马里兰州安德鲁斯联合基地。E.U. negotiators had engaged in months of back-and-forth with their U.S. counterparts before Mr. Trump’s announcement. And until the middle of the week, Brussels hoped that it was closing in on at least the framework for a deal: The European Union would accept a base tariff of 10 percent, but it would also push for carve-outs for key sectors.在特朗普宣布关税之前，欧盟谈判代表与美国进行了数月的反复磋商。直到本周中旬，布鲁塞尔还希望能够至少达成一项协议框架：欧盟接受10%的基础关税，但同时也会争取为关键行业争取豁免。Instead, Mr. Trump began hinting on Thursday that the bloc — one of America’s most important trading partners — would receive a letter setting out a sweeping, across-the-board tariff rate.然而，特朗普在上周四开始暗示，作为美国最重要贸易伙伴之一的欧盟将收到一封信，信中将列出一项全面的统一关税税率。The White House officially notified E.U. officials on Friday that their carefully drawn plans had blown up. And on Saturday, the public learned from Mr. Trump’s social media account that the bloc would be subject to a 30 percent rate.白宫上周五正式通知欧盟官员，他们精心制定的计划已被打乱。上周六，公众通过特朗普的社交媒体账号得知，欧盟将被征收30%的关税。Mr. Trump simultaneously announced that he would place a similar tariff on goods from Mexico. Canada’s rate is slightly higher, at 35 percent. The likes of Thailand (35 percent), Bangladesh (35 percent) and Brazil (50 percent), along with dozens of other U.S. trading partners, appear to be headed for a similar fate.特朗普同时宣布，他将对来自墨西哥的商品征收类似的关税。加拿大的关税率略高，为35%。泰国(35%)、孟加拉国(35%)、巴西(50%)以及其他数十个美国贸易伙伴似乎也将面临类似的命运。Mr. Trump has backed down from threatened tariffs before, and he has indicated a willingness to negotiate these tariffs down before their Aug. 1 effective date — and the European Union and other economies are poised to continue with negotiations.特朗普此前曾撤回过威胁征收的关税，他也表示愿意在8月1日关税生效前进行谈判，降低关税水平——欧盟和其他经济体也准备继续进行谈判。But the atmosphere is increasingly hostile.但整体氛围日益敌对。Mr. Trump is “instrumentalizing uncertainty” to try to force trading partners to make concessions, said Mujtaba Rahman, managing director for Europe at the Eurasia Group, calling the latest announcements a “complete move of the goal posts.”欧亚集团欧洲区董事总经理穆贾塔巴·拉赫曼表示，特朗普正在“利用不确定性”试图迫使贸易伙伴做出让步，并称最近的宣布是一次“彻底的朝令夕改”。Mr. Trump’s announcement on Saturday sharply intensified calls in Europe for forceful retaliation.特朗普周六的宣布极大地加剧了欧洲内部要求强硬反击的呼声。“Trump is trying to divide and scare Europe,” said Brando Benifei, who heads the delegation for relations with the United States at the European Parliament.“特朗普正在试图分裂并恐吓欧洲，”欧洲议会美欧关系代表团的团长布兰多·贝尼菲表示。4月，伦敦的购物人群。美国的关税促使英国和欧盟在贸易方面的关系比脱欧以来任何时候都更加紧密。But Ms. von der Leyen announced on Sunday that the bloc would wait until early August to allow ready-made retaliatory tariffs to kick in. Those tariffs cover nearly $25 billion of goods. They had already been suspended once and had been poised to take effect early on Tuesday morning.但冯德莱恩周日宣布，欧盟将等到8月初才启动早已准备好的报复性关税措施。这些关税涉及近250亿美元的商品，之前被暂停过一次，原本计划于本周二一早生效。“At the same time, we will continue to prepare further countermeasures,” Ms. von der Leyen said.冯德莱恩表示：“与此同时，我们将继续准备进一步的反制措施。”Hitting back would be just a first step; drawing closer to outside allies may prove even more meaningful in the long run.反击只是第一步；从长远来看，与外部盟友拉近关系可能更加重要。Since Mr. Trump’s push to reorder the trading system kicked off in February, the European Union has been hustling to strike new trade agreements and deepen existing ones.自从特朗普于2月开始推动重塑贸易体系以来，欧盟一直在加紧签订新的贸易协定，并深化已有的合作关系。Canada and the European Union have pulled together. Britain and the European Union have had a rapprochement, five years after Britain officially exited the union. The bloc is working toward closer trading relationships with India and South Africa, and with countries across South America and Asia.加拿大和欧盟已携手合作。英国在正式脱欧五年后，与欧盟关系出现缓和。欧盟正努力与印度和南非以及南美和亚洲的多个国家建立更紧密的贸易关系。Nor is the European Union the only global power adopting such a strategy. Canada is also drawing closer to Southeast Asia, while Brazil and Mexico are working to deepen their ties.欧盟并不是唯一采取这种策略的全球主要经济体。加拿大也在拉近与东南亚的关系，而巴西和墨西哥则在努力深化彼此的联系。Officials have even floated the idea of building trading structures that exclude the United States and China, which is widely blamed for supporting its factories to the point that they overproduce and flood global markets with cheap goods.官员们甚至提出建立排除美国和中国的贸易架构，中国被广泛指责通过支持其工厂导致产能过剩，向全球市场倾销廉价商品。Ms. von der Leyen recently suggested that Europe could pursue a new collaboration between the bloc and a trading group of 11 countries that includes Japan, Vietnam and Australia, but that notably did not include the United States or China.冯德莱恩最近表示，欧洲可以推动欧盟与一个由日本、越南和澳大利亚等11个国家组成的贸易集团开展新的合作，但该集团明显地未将美国和中国包含进来。4月，越南胡志明市一家服装厂的生产线。全球各国正在讨论建立一个以规则为基础、排除美国在外的贸易秩序。One key question, analysts said, is whether America’s allies will go a step further. Instead of simply collaborating more with one another and leaving the United States out, could they actually gang up to counter the United States?分析人士指出，一个关键问题是，美国的盟友们是否会更进一步。除了彼此加强合作、排除美国，它们是否会真正联手，共同对抗美国？Large economies could consider coordinating their retaliation to Mr. Trump’s latest round of tariffs, said Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at Bruegel, an economic policy research organization in Brussels. Banding together could give them more leverage.布鲁塞尔经济政策研究机构布鲁盖尔高级研究员雅各布·弗恩克·柯克加德表示，大型经济体可以考虑协调对特朗普最新一轮关税的反制行动，联合起来将赋予它们更大的谈判筹码。“I would start to look for coordination,” he said. “That’s the rational thing.”“是我的话就会开始寻求协调，”他说，“这是理性的选择。”Ana Swanson自华盛顿对本文有报道贡献。Jeanna Smialek是《纽约时报》布鲁塞尔分社社长。翻译：Ziyu Qing点击查看本文英文版。