How to determine if the Fed will change target interest rates?US Nas 100OANDA:NAS100USDyuchaosngIn this video, I explain the mechanism of the Fed target interest rates and how to determine if the Fed will cut the target interest rates in September 2025 (or any other FOMC). I also talk about the Overnight Reverse Repo balance sheet and the draining of the balance from a high of 2.55T on 30th Dec 2022 to just 25B as of 21st Aug 2025. I hypothesize a scenario from now till the September FOMC: 1. The Overnight Reverse Repo is completely emptied, meaning the stealth liquidity is gone. 2. The Equity Markets suffers a sharp fall (even a crash). 3. Funds rotate into US treasuries, causing yield to fall. 4. Fed cuts target interest rates without having to monetize the debts. The most important key takeaway in this video is to understand that in order to know if the Fed will do anything is to see the 3month government bond yield. All the other information are supplementary and provide us information to paint a narrative on how the market will move in the coming weeks. As aways, keep your risks tight, and Good Luck!