BEN CASSELMAN, COLBY SMITH, TONY ROMM2025年8月27日特朗普总统试图解雇美联储理事丽莎·库克，央行面临关键时刻之际，此举加剧了不确定性。 Doug Mills/The New York TimesIn his monthslong battle to take control of the Federal Reserve, President Trump has tried threats, name-calling and — in one particularly memorable news conference with a hard-hat-wearing Jerome H. Powell — public humiliation. But he has always stopped short of the step that advisers warned could roil financial markets and upend a pillar of the global economy: attempting to fire a Fed official.在长达数月争夺美联储控制权的斗争中，特朗普总统曾动用威胁、辱骂等手段，以及公开羞辱——其中最令人印象深刻的一幕，是在新闻发布会上针对戴着安全帽的杰罗姆·鲍威尔。但他始终未曾迈出顾问们警告可能引发金融市场动荡、颠覆全球经济支柱的那一步：试图解雇美联储官员。On Monday evening, he took that leap.然而在周一晚间，他迈出了这一步。Mr. Trump’s target was not Mr. Powell, the Fed chair, at least for now. Instead it was Lisa Cook, one of the Fed’s six other governors. The president, in a letter, said he was removing Ms. Cook “for cause,” citing allegations of mortgage fraud. Ms. Cook has not been charged with any crime.特朗普的目标至少目前还不是美联储主席鲍威尔，而是美联储另外六位理事之一的丽莎·库克。总统在一封信中表示，将以“正当理由”解除库克的职务，理由是她涉嫌抵押贷款欺诈。但库克尚未受到任何刑事指控。But Mr. Trump has made little secret of his true aim. He wants to control the Fed.但特朗普对真实意图毫不掩饰：他希望掌控美联储。Janet L. Yellen, who was Mr. Powell’s immediate predecessor as Fed chair and later served as Treasury secretary under President Joseph R. Biden Jr., said she was “utterly alarmed” by the move.在鲍威尔之前担任美联储主席、后在拜登政府时期担任财政部长的耶伦表示，她对这一举措“深感震惊”。“I feel this is now turned into an all-out assault on the Federal Reserve and an attempt by President Trump to really gain control over decision-making at the Fed,” she said.“我认为，这已然演变为对美联储的全面攻击，特朗普总统正试图真正掌控美联储的决策过程，”她说。Peter Conti-Brown, an expert on Fed governance at the University of Pennsylvania, said Ms. Cook’s firing, if successful, would mark “the end of central bank independence as we know it.”宾夕法尼亚大学研究美联储治理的专家彼得·孔蒂-布朗指出，解雇库克的行动如果成功，将标志着“我们所熟知的央行独立性的终结”。In the short term, Mr. Trump’s attempt to fire Ms. Cook creates more uncertainty at a critical moment for Fed policy. Ms. Cook has vowed to fight her ouster, and on Tuesday her lawyer promised to file a lawsuit challenging what he called an “illegal action.” Legal experts say she has a strong case given that she hasn’t been convicted of a crime and that the fraud allegations involve her private conduct, not her work at the Fed.短期来看，特朗普试图解雇库克的举动在美联储政策制定的关键节点制造了更多不确定性。库克已决心反抗解职决定，其律师在周二承诺将提起诉讼，质疑这一“非法行为”。法律专家认为，鉴于库克未被定罪且欺诈指控涉及其私人行为而非美联储工作，她胜诉的可能性极大。That sets up the potential for a protracted legal battle between Ms. Cook and the president, which almost certainly won’t be resolved before the Fed’s next meeting in mid-September, and perhaps not for many meetings after that. It is possible that the Republican-controlled Senate could confirm a replacement for Ms. Cook while she is still fighting for her seat, a standoff with no precedent in the Fed’s century-long history.这意味着库克与总统之间可能爆发一场旷日持久的法律战。这几乎必然无法在美联储9月中旬的下次会议前解决，甚至可能持续至多次后续会议。此外，由共和党掌控的参议院可能在库克仍在为保住职位抗争时就批准其继任者的任命，这在美联储百年历史中尚无先例。In the longer run, if Mr. Trump succeeds in replacing Ms. Cook, he will have reshaped the central bank in a way hardly anyone thought possible before last week. During a marathon cabinet meeting on Tuesday, the president appeared to delight at his efforts so far to remake the Fed and its roster, telling reporters: “We’ll have a majority very shortly, so that’ll be great.”长期来看，若特朗普成功替换库克，他将以一种上周前几乎无人能预料的方式重塑这家央行。在周二冗长的内阁会议上，总统似乎对自己重塑美联储及其成员构成的努力颇为得意，他告诉记者：“我们很快就能获得多数席位，这会很棒。”For all the attention on Mr. Trump’s fight with Mr. Powell, it was always clear that the president would get to name a new Fed chair when Mr. Powell’s term ended next spring. Mr. Trump was also expected to get to fill another seat on the board in January — though that seat came open several months early when Adriana Kugler unexpectedly resigned this month.尽管外界非常关注特朗普与鲍威尔的对抗，但始终明确的一点是，总统将在鲍威尔明年春季任期届满时提名新美联储主席。此外，外界还预计他将在明年1月填补理事会的另一个空缺席位——不过该席位因阿德里亚娜·库格勒本月意外辞职而提前数月空缺。库克与美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（左），摄于2023年。如果特朗普能够解雇库克，那么他也有可能解雇其他美联储官员。But Ms. Cook’s term does not end until 2038, long after Mr. Trump will have left office. If he is able to fill both her seat and Ms. Kugler’s, he will have appointed a majority of the Fed’s seven-member board even before Mr. Powell steps down as chair.但库克的任期要到2038年才结束，远在特朗普卸任之后。若他能同时填补库克和库格勒的席位，那么即便在鲍威尔卸任主席之前，他任命的人选也将占据美联储七人理事会的多数席位。And if Mr. Trump is able to fire Ms. Cook, that raises the possibility he could fire other Fed officials as well if they refuse to approve the interest rate cuts that he has demanded.若特朗普能成功解雇库克，将引发一种可能性：若其他美联储官员拒绝批准他所要求的降息，他也可能将他们解雇。Officially, the president said he was firing Ms. Cook “for cause” over allegations that she made false statements in obtaining two mortgages in 2021, before she joined the Fed. Bill Pulte, the director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, first made those accusations on social media last week and subsequently referred the matter to the Justice Department, which opened an investigation.从官方表述来看，总统称解雇库克有“正当理由”，指其在2021年加入美联储前申请两笔抵押贷款时存在虚假陈述。美国联邦住房金融局局长比尔·普尔特上周首次在社交媒体上提出这些指控，随后将此事移交司法部，司法部已启动调查。Fed experts said the allegations against Ms. Cook are serious and should be investigated. But they said it was clear that they were part of a larger effort by Mr. Trump to install loyalists at the central bank. After Ms. Kugler stepped down this month, the president said he would nominate Stephen Miran, the chair of his Council of Economic Advisers, to replace her. On Tuesday, the president appeared to suggest that Mr. Miran could instead receive a nod to replace Ms. Cook, which would afford him a longer term if the Senate confirms him.美联储问题专家表示，针对库克的指控固然严重，理应展开调查，但他们指出，这显然是特朗普总统在央行安插亲信的更大布局的一部分。本月库格勒辞职后，总统曾表示将提名其经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰接替库格勒。而在周二，总统似乎暗示可能转而提名米兰接替库克，若参议院批准，米兰将获得更长的任期。“It’s a mistake to see this as being about Lisa Cook,” said Lev Menand, a professor at Columbia Law School who studies the Fed. “He’s trying to take control of the Board of Governors by pushing out and throwing the full force of the federal government against them to scare them into resigning.”“若将此事仅视为针对丽莎·库克，那就错了，”研究美联储的哥伦比亚大学法学院教授莱夫·梅南德表示。“总统正试图通过排挤理事会成员，并动用联邦政府全部力量施压，迫使他们辞职来掌控美联储理事会。”Ms. Yellen said she worried that Mr. Trump would target other members of the Fed’s policy-setting Open Market Committee, and either try to force them out or intimidate them into enacting his preferred policies.耶伦表示，她担心特朗普会将目标对准美联储政策制定机构联邦公开市场委员会的其他成员，要么试图强迫他们离职，要么胁迫他们推行特朗普偏爱的政策。“This is a strategy that can be used against potentially any member of the Federal Open Market Committee to try to gain control of the policy process,” she said. “It can make members of the Federal Open Market Committee very worried about expressing or acting on their views.”“这种策略可能被用来针对联邦公开市场委员会的任何成员，以试图掌控政策制定过程，”她说。“这会让联邦公开市场委员会的成员们在表达或践行自己的观点时疑虑重重。”In a statement on Tuesday, a Fed spokesperson said the central bank would “continue to carry out its duties as established by law" and abide by any court decision on Ms. Cook’s status.美联储发言人在周二的一份声明中表示，央行将“继续依法履行职责”，并遵守任何关于库克职位状态的法院判决。“Congress, through the Federal Reserve Act, directs that governors serve in long, fixed terms and may be removed by the president only for cause,’” the statement said. “Long tenures and removal protections for governors serve as a vital safeguard, ensuring that monetary policy decisions are based on data, economic analysis, and the long-term interests of the American people.”声明称：“国会通过《联邦储备法》规定，美联储理事以固定任期长期任职，总统仅能以‘正当理由’将其解职。理事的长期任职及解职保护机制是至关重要的保障，确保货币政策决策基于数据、经济分析及美国民众的长远利益。”Ben Casselman是《纽约时报》首席经济记者，从事经济报道近20年。Colby Smith为《纽约时报》报道美联储和美国经济。Tony Romm是《纽约时报》驻华盛顿记者，报道经济政策和特朗普政府。翻译：晋其角点击查看本文英文版。