More consumers expect a challenging job market.Consumer confidence fell again in August, dropping 1.3 points to 97.4, slightly below the baseline of 100.The index, produced monthly by the Conference Board, is made up of two main components, the Present Index, which gauges sentiment right now, and the Expectations Index, which looks at how consumers feel about what’s coming. Here’s are the scores for each in August:Present Index dropped 1.6 points to 131.2, but it is still well above the 100 baseline. Expectations Index decreased by 1.2 points to 74.8. A score below 80 typically suggests that consumers see a recession ahead.“Consumer confidence dipped slightly in August but remained at a level similar to those of the past three months,” Stephanie Guichard, senior economist, global indicators at The Conference Board, said. “The present situation and the expectation components both weakened. Notably, consumers’ appraisal of current job availability declined for the eighth consecutive month, but stronger views of current business conditions mitigated the retreat in the Present Situation Index. Meanwhile, pessimism about future job availability inched up and optimism about future income faded slightly. However, these were partly offset by stronger expectations for future business conditions.”Looking at confidence among different age groups, younger Americans clearly feel the most apprehensive as confidence plummeted among those under age 35. It was stable for those aged 35 to 55, and it went up slightly for those over 55.Guichard noted that in the write-in responses, references to tariffs increased along with mentions of high prices and inflation. In the August survey, the average 12-month inflation expectations jumped three consecutive months of easing.The August report also included some key data that may get the attention of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) leading up to its next meeting on September 16-17.Jobs Harder To Come ByOne statistic that FOMC members may be looking at closely is how consumers feel about job prospects.The percentage of consumers who said jobs were hard to get rose to 20%, from 18.9% in July. This suggests that the job outlook is the worst its been in more than four years.“Consumer confidence in August dipped ever so slightly as more consumers expect annual inflation to rebound. But the biggest news is the number of consumers saying jobs are hard to get,” Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for LPL Financial, said. “Employment prospects have deteriorated. The number of consumers reporting jobs are “hard to get” is the highest since March 2021.”In addition, 17.9% of consumers said they expect more jobs to be available in six months, down from 18.0% in July. Further, 26.8% anticipated fewer jobs, up from 25.1% the previous month. Also, the August report said 18.3% of consumers expect their incomes to rise, down from 18.7% in July. And, 12.6% expected their income to decrease, up from 11.8%.“Consumers are feeling a softening job market,” Roach said. “We should expect upcoming nonfarm payrolls numbers to be on the soft side. I expect August payrolls to be roughly 60,000 net of revisions.”Will It Influence the Fed?Last week at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Fed chair Jerome Powell noted that job growth is slowing and employment risks are rising. If the risks materialize, he said, it could lead to layoffs and rising unemployment. These concerns could, in turn, influence the FOMC to lower rates next month.Yet, consumers are more doubtful that the Fed will lower rates as 54% expect interest rates to rise, up from 53.1% in July. And only 20.9% expect interest rates to fall, down from 21.4% in July.Regarding stocks, 47.4% say stock prices will increase over the next 12 months, down from 48.9% in July. Conversely, 30.3% believe stock prices will decrease over the next 12 months, up from 28.1% last month.Original Post