特朗普就加沙问题召开会议,我们离全面停火还有多远?

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AARON BOXERMAN2025年8月28日周一,以色列军方宣布计划对加沙城发动全面进攻后,加沙城北部的巴勒斯坦民众纷纷逃离家园。 Saher Alghorra for The New York TimesPresident Trump chaired a meeting on Wednesday focusing on plans for postwar Gaza, as the United States and Israel seek a comprehensive deal that would end the conflict and return all of the remaining Israeli hostages.特朗普总统于周三主持召开了关于加沙战后规划的会议,与此同时,美国和以色列正在寻求达成一项全面协议,以结束冲突,并让所有剩余的以色列人质获释。For nearly two years, international mediators have sought to pause the war in Gaza. They managed to achieve partial agreements that freed some hostages and briefly stopped the fighting in Gaza, but they did not ultimately end the war.近两年来,国际调停方一直在推动加沙停火。他们设法达成了部分协议,使得一些人质获释,并短暂停止了加沙的战斗,但没有最终结束战争。On Tuesday, Steve Witkoff, Mr. Trump’s Middle East envoy, appeared to rule out any piecemeal agreement that would bring home only some of the captives in exchange for a truce.周二,特朗普的中东特使史蒂夫·维护特科夫似乎排除了任何以一次临时停火换取部分人质回国的零碎协议。“We think we’re going to settle this one way or another, certainly before the end of this year,” Mr. Witkoff told Fox News in an interview.维特科夫在接受福克斯新闻采访时表示,“我们认为无论如何都会解决这个问题,肯定会在今年年底之前。”The families of Israeli hostages have long called for a “full deal” to end the war in exchange for releasing the remaining hostages. But Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, has set exacting conditions for any such agreement that Hamas is unlikely to accept.以色列人质的家属长期以来一直呼吁达成“全面协议”结束战争,以换取剩余人质获释。但以色列总理内塔尼亚胡为此类协议设定了苛刻的条件,哈马斯不太可能接受。Here’s what to know about the latest efforts to reach a cease-fire.关于最新停火努力的要点如下。How close are we to a cease-fire in Gaza?我们离加沙停火还有多远?Months of efforts to broker a truce by the United States, Qatar, and Egypt have stalled in recent weeks.美国、卡塔尔和埃及几个月来斡旋停火的努力在最近几周陷入停滞。Israel is gearing up for a full-scale offensive to take over Gaza City, where hundreds of thousands of people are sheltering. Unless Hamas agrees to Israel’s terms, the Israeli military will launch the new military push in the coming weeks, Israeli officials say.以色列正准备对加沙城发起全面进攻,那里有数十万人正在避难。以色列官员称,除非哈马斯同意以色列的条件,否则以军将在未来几周内发动新的军事攻势。The war began nearly two years ago after a Hamas-led attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, that killed roughly 1,200 people. The group also took about 250 hostages back to Gaza. Two short-lived cease-fires saw some Israeli hostages released in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. Israel says 20 living hostages remain in Gaza and that Hamas is still holding the bodies of about 30 more.这场战争始于两年前,2023年10月7日,哈马斯领导了对以色列的袭击,造成大约1200人死亡。该组织还将大约250名人质带回加沙。在两次短暂的停火中,一些以色列人质获释,以换取巴勒斯坦囚犯。以色列称,仍有20名生存的人质留在加沙,哈马斯还扣押着大约30具遇难者遗体。But neither truce guaranteed an end to the war in Gaza. In January, Israel and Hamas agreed to a 60-day cease-fire, during which they would negotiate the terms for ending the war. But in March, with talks deadlocked, Israel resumed its military offensive.但两次停火都未能确保加沙战争的终结。今年1月,以色列和哈马斯同意停火60天,在此期间,双方将就结束战争的条款进行谈判。但到了3月,由于谈判陷入僵局,以色列恢复了军事进攻。More than 60,000 people have been killed in Gaza since Oct. 2023, and more than 10,000 have been killed since Israel ended the cease-fire, according to Palestinian health officials. Their data does not distinguish between civilians and combatants but includes thousands of children.据巴勒斯坦卫生官员称,自2023年10月以来,加沙已有逾6万人丧生,自以色列结束停火以来,新增死亡超过1万人。这一数据未区分平民和战斗人员,但包括数以千计的儿童。On what terms will Israel end the war?以色列将以什么条件结束战争?Israeli leaders have vowed that they will not end the war until they destroy Hamas in Gaza. Any cease-fire that left the group in power or allowed it to rebuild its strength would be unacceptable, they said.以色列领导人誓言,除非彻底摧毁加沙地带的哈马斯组织,否则绝不结束战争。他们说,任何让该组织继续掌权或让其重建武装的停火协议都是不可接受的。Hamas has refused to release all of the remaining hostages unless Israel ends the war and withdraws its forces, however, and Israeli officials have focused on temporary truces to bring home some of the captives.但哈马斯拒绝释放所有剩下的人质,除非以色列结束战争并撤出军队。目前以方官员正聚焦于通过临时停火协议换回部分被扣押人员。Political analysts say that Mr. Netanyahu is concerned that ending the war would destabilize his right-wing coalition, which is stacked with hard-liners who hope to fully conquer Gaza and resettle it with Jewish Israelis. Mr. Netanyahu says he has acted in Israel’s national security interests.政治分析人士称,内塔尼亚胡担心结束战争会动摇他的右翼联盟,这个联盟由强硬派组成,他们希望完全征服加沙,让以色列犹太人在那里定居。内塔尼亚胡表示,他的行动符合以色列的国家安全利益。周二,数以千计的抗议者走上特拉维夫街头,要求结束战争,其中包括被扣押在加沙的人质的家属。But earlier this month, Mr. Netanyahu laid out Israel’s conditions for an end to the war: Hamas would have to lay down its arms and end its 18-year-rule in Gaza, where Israel would maintain “security control.” He did not say who would rule Gaza instead of Hamas but suggested Israel could hand over control to unnamed “Arab forces.”但本月早些时候,内塔尼亚胡提出了以色列结束战争的条件:哈马斯必须放下武器,结束在加沙长达18年的统治,而以色列将维持加沙的“安全控制”。他没有说将由谁取代哈马斯统治加沙,但暗示以色列可以将控制权移交给未具名的“阿拉伯部队”。Hamas officials have said the group is willing to give up governing Gaza, but they have repeatedly rejected Israeli demands to demilitarize, which the group’s leaders would view, effectively, as surrender.哈马斯官员曾表示,该组织愿意放弃对加沙的统治,但他们一再拒绝以色列提出的非军事化要求,哈马斯领导人认为这实质上等同于投降。What deal has Hamas agreed to?哈马斯同意了什么协议?Last week, Hamas said it had broadly agreed to a cease-fire offer presented by Qatari and Egyptian mediators.上周,哈马斯表示基本上同意卡塔尔和埃及调解方提出的停火方案。That deal would not guarantee an end to the war but would pause fighting for 60 days, during which Hamas would release about 10 living hostages and turn over the bodies of 18 others. During the cease-fire, Israel and Hamas would again try to negotiate terms to end the war.该协议并不保证结束战争,但将暂停战斗60天,在此期间,哈马斯将释放大约10名活着的人质,并交出另外18名遇难人质的尸体。在停火期间,以色列和哈马斯将再度尝试就结束战争的条款进行谈判。But since Hamas signaled that it would agree to such a deal, the Israeli government has yet to publicly respond.但是,自从哈马斯表示愿意接受这样的协议以来,以色列政府一直没有公开回应。Mr. Netanyahu’s critics say he has moved the goal posts. When Hamas demanded a full agreement, he focused on a cease-fire. Now that Hamas has more or less accepted a U.S.-backed truce proposal, he says he is focusing on a comprehensive deal.内塔尼亚胡的批评者指责他不断改变谈判立场。当哈马斯要求达成全面协议时,他把重点放在停火上。现在哈马斯或多或少地接受了美国支持的停火方案,他又声称要追求全面协议。The families of Israeli hostages held in Gaza have called for an end to the war in exchange for freeing the hostages. But they have also urged the government to accept the partial agreement to get as many living captives out alive as possible.在加沙被扣押的以色列人质的家属呼吁结束战争以换取释放人质。但他们也敦促政府接受部分协议,尽可能让更多生还者获释。Within the Israeli government, Mr. Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition partners have pushed back against the cease-fire proposal accepted by Hamas. Itamar Ben-Gvir, the Israeli national security minister, rejected it and called for Israel to “go all the way and destroy Hamas” in Gaza.在以色列政府内部,内塔尼亚胡的右翼联盟伙伴反对这个被哈马斯接受的停火方案。以色列国家安全部长伊塔马尔·本-格维尔对该方案表示拒绝,并呼吁以色列在加沙地带“彻底摧毁哈马斯”。Gabby Sobelman和Maggie Haberman对本文有报道贡献。Aaron Boxerman是时报记者,报道以色列和加沙新闻。他常驻耶路撒冷。翻译:晋其角点击查看本文英文版。