By: Tim DaissElderly Russ ‘ghost’ tanker. Photo by Alan SoutarRussia is pulling no stops when it comes to skirting US sanctions from its invasion and ongoing war in Ukraine. News reports broke in mid-August that several Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers were heading to North Asia, some reports specified China, to sell their cargoes.Using compiled ship tracking data, Bloomberg identified two vessels by name, the Iris and Voskhod, which were carrying shipments from Russia’s embattled Arctic LNG 2 plant in Siberia to North Asia via the Northern Sea Route. Previously the ships had been idling for several weeks. The Bloomberg report added that two other LNG tankers that recently loaded at the Arctic LNG 2 plant also started heading toward Asia a few days earlier.It’s uncertain whether the ships have found buyers for their cargoes, or will just idle again waiting for offers. A Maritime Optima report, however, upped the ante, reporting that the Voskhod was heading to the PipeChina Beihai import and regasification terminal in southern China.Ships Sail as Trump, Putin MeetThere are significant take-aways from what can arguably be called Russia’s calculated and defiant move. First, what makes this move diabolical, at least in Washington’s eyes, is that the ships set sail the same day that President Donald Trump was trying to broker a peace deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Some maritime analysts speculated that there’s a definite link between the summit and the vessels' sudden activity. The White House has remained silent over the tanker reports.Second, the development also calls into question Putin’s real intent over the war in Ukraine. Many analysts and policy makers conclude that he doesn’t want peace and still believes he can win, or at least force a negotiated victory. The day after the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska US Senator Mitch McConnell said “…what President Putin is, is a ruthless thug who's just invaded another sovereign country and killed thousands of innocent people.” Senator Lindsey Graham echoed the point, calling Putin “a thug and a murderer” who is stalling and stonewalling in order to mount a new offensive.Search for Buyers no SurpriseRussia’s rogue LNG voyages into North Asia, however, also indicate weakness. Sanctions have crippled its once-touted Arctic LNG 2 project, so it’s desperately looking for revenue to stop bleeding red ink. Worse yet for majority stakeholder Russian energy giant Novatek, no international buyers have placed orders due to US sanctions. The $21.3 billion project was financed by Novatek, with the remaining 27 percent backed by the Russian government. Though the project remains constrained by sanctions, production bottlenecks, and frozen foreign shareholder involvement, it’s still seen as Russia’s flagship LNG project and part of Moscow’s plan to triple LNG exports by 2030. It’s also the linchpin of Putin’s Asia gas pivot, coming after much of Europe weaned itself off of Russian pipeline gas after the country invaded Ukraine.Russia already has a shadow fleet of some 12 LNG tankers. Moreover, its shadow fleet is a fast-emerging copy of its oil sanctions evasion playbook. But problems persist. Most of Russia’s LNG shadow fleet are compromised. They are typically older, re-flagged and insured through small, non-western companies, making them harder to track. Analysts claim that the goal is to keep Russia’s gas exports alive despite being locked out of mainstream markets, the same way Moscow has kept crude flowing to India and China since the EU-enforced oil price cap in 2022.Russia’s shadow oil tanker fleet also consists of hundreds of older ships entangled in opaque ownership networks, often through shell companies in Dubai, Hong Kong, and other offshore jurisdictions. These ships typically sail under flags of convenience, operate with minimal insurance, and use tactics like ship-to-ship transfers at sea or switching off their AIS tracking systems to obscure origins and destinations.Despite the risks, the fleet has allowed Russia to sustain, and in some cases expand, oil exports to Asia, while keeping revenues flowing to the Kremlin. Estimates vary per consultancy, but S&P Global and the Kyiv School of Economics Institute claim that Russia has more than 400 shadow fleet oil tankers that can transport oil, or products made from crude such as diesel fuel and gasoline. Moscow has spent more than US$10 billion building its oil tanker shadow fleet to circumvent sanctions.Not so Easy With LNGHowever, duplicating its success with LNG will be more difficult. LNG trades differently from oil. Crude is traded globally with regional variations and priced with quality adjustments for specific grades. LNG trade, however, includes a costly liquefaction process, requiring specialized cryogenic tankers for overseas transport, and results in more regionalized, price-linked gas markets with stricter quality standards and long-term contracts. Most LNG users are utilities in the power sector. Global LNG markets are also just a fraction of global oil markets. In 2024, LNG trade was valued at around US$150 billion, while crude oil markets surpassed US$2 trillion.Global LNG markets are also awash in supply, according to International Energy Agency (IEA) data. By 2030, global LNG liquefaction capacity is set to expand by around 50 percent from a current 580 billion cubic meters (bcm) to approximately 850 bcm. Despite Russia’s recent LNG transport misdirection, Arctic LNG 2 cargos simply aren’t an integral part of the global LNG landscape. As such, selling Arctic LNG 2 cargoes will only benefit project stakeholders, Kremlin coffers and a small group of countries bold enough to risk secondary sanctions over its procurement.